Kelvin Kiptum - possible red flag?

Here are three red flags for Kelvin Kiptum:

Valencia Marathon (December 4, 2022): 2:01:53

London Marathon (April 23, 2023): 2:01:25

Chicago Marathon (October 8, 2023): 2:00:35

I don't buy that argument. Prior to Kiptum, I would say it is more likely for the WR holder to be mid 30s in the marathon. Kipchoge, Geb, Tergat, Khannouchi.

But then that leaves someone like Dennis Kimetto, and it is a better answer to my original question actually. He did indeed run three WR caliber marathons including the WR from out of nowhere. But then he also went nowhere after, and how many think he is clean?

I think then Patrick Makau is only one in the last 20+ years. I'm doing this from memory, I reserve the right to be wrong.

Kelvin Kiptum is supremely talented no doubt, but that is not enough these days.

Show me the POSITIVE TEST!!!

It's Soooooooo EASY to sit behind a keyboard and accuse runners who run a fast time(s) to be cheating. I'll ask AGAIN, what quality marathon time would be deemed acceptable and not considered to be "Cheating"?

Not a difficult question for those who know what their talking about.

You are trying way too hard!! I am pretty sure if John wanted to dope, his first choice wouldn't be Triamcinolone acetonide. Heck, I even use it for my eczema and it's not giving me any edge in my running.

Trying to link two people because of their names shows you don't even know the culture. People don't necessary have the same family name in the same family in Rwanda or Burundi.

So John Smith coaches Joe Williams and 'a' Peter Smith has tested positive.

Of course, Joe Williams is a doper.

It doesn't matter what their success is "mainly" the result of; sure, they may be talented athletes but we also see that doping is throughout their sport.

Returning to the possible connection between his manager and John Hakizimana who just got busted - I don't think there is any. Hakizimana seems quite a common name in Rwanda. I found a couple of recent articles on him and there is no mention of Kiptum's coach. So the only connection is that Rwanda obviously has a doping problem too.

Only 1% of tests are positive and yet it is expertly estimated that at least 20% of athletes dope, if not more. So most dopers will not be caught.

It follows from that that a good proportion of top runners will be doping but we won't know unless they return a positive test. We can only guess at how much they will have gained from their doping. Some estimates suggest it will be in the order of several minutes over the marathon. Because we can't be exact, because it will vary with each runner, we can't say there is an agreed benchmark for a clean performance. However we might argue that with the prevalence of doping in the sport the very fastest performances will be the most suspect.

“It’s not a lie if you believe it”

George Costanza

"It isn't lie if I say it." DJT.

I have spent significant time in East Africa over the last 2 decades as a nurse. Out of Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Burundi I can say that Rwanda was the place that stands out the most with extreme poverty (followed closely by the slums in Nairobi). The AVERAGE income/month for a family of four in Rwanda is $77usd. As we struggled at times to even procure antibiotics, I can’t imagine how someone there could have gotten ahold of epo. Surely, this can be traced to an agent that has provided this as an “investment”? Maybe he was not based in Rwanda for training?

Yes, my understanding is Gervais Hakizimana (Kiptum's coach) and John Hakizimana (just busted for doping) are unrelated. That's what Milan Augustijns (Belgian journalist) told me.

I'm going to applaud you earnestly for objectively looking at this one.

Well, God didn't save John Hakizimana from being popped!

I think kiptum is much older than his stated age and has prolly used peds heavily when he was a nobody. I would say he is 25-30 yo and prolly used peds for several years. He could even be around 30ish. Like everyone else has said, coming from nowhere n just smashing everyone n every race is a huge red flag. Its like D Kimetto 3.0. For me, Kenyans are dopers until proven otherwise....

I never quite get the people who want to theorize he's something like 30? So he just gave up years of his prime for what reason? I obviously find it believable he might be 25 or something sure.

His progression is not so much wild as his translation to the marathon is. Here's what we know of his career:

2018- Upsets Matthew Kisorio to win Eldoret (7000 ft. elevation) Half Marathon and obtains representation

2019- Runs Sub-60 for the HM twice in Europe including a win in France, and then he crushes some other decent domestic Kenyans at KASS Half marathon

At this point, clearly he's a competitive Half guy who is on the upswing, but running 59:5x and winning against B-level Kenyans domestically is not enough to make an imprint on much

2020- Big breakthrough at Valencia, he runs 58:42. After failing to stick with Mo Farah/Bashir Abdi in the Hour-run World Record in September, clearly he's taken a step forward to PB by more than a minute. This is a little under the radar as the race upfront is lightning quick.

2021- Stagnates a bit — 59:02 in Valencia, though he does win a HM in France with his second fastest time (59:35)

2022- We've learned now he was planning on running the Rotterdam Marathon, but he gets injured and has to withdraw (after dropping out in the RAK Half), so he debuts in Valencia and runs unbelievably. It's been all hits since.

Kiptum was a pacemaker in the Rotterdam marathon in 2019; he ran 27km pacing the winner Marius Kipserem - 2:04:11.

Right. Clearly he was a good HM runner. Maybe we shouldn’t be as shocked by 59-low HM guys being able to run 2:03. It happened in Berlin and should continue to happen. And perhaps Kiptum was more in 58-low/57-high shape by 2022. We should know more if guys like Barega, Cheptegei and Kandie translate. Mateiko was a disappointment but he did try to run a 2:01 race with Kiptum.

It's a common last name in the region.

You people are pathetic and desperate.