Why I think Tuohy will still win over Valby

Valby just ran a 15:19 equivalent on a sandy, twisty golf course, yet you still think a 15:15 on the track now will be some big “achievement”?

Right. Heard this song before.

Edit: “15:10” vs “15:15”

She has run some amazing XC times. My question is on the track does she have the speed? Can she do the workouts to gain more speed and turnover? She can run 72/73 for a long time. 14:40 is 70 seconds per 400. Even in that 3000 as she tried to react to those passing her I think she just arched her back more, and overstrided as opposed to increasing turnover. She did not handle a 63-64 second opening 400 well on that DMR leg in January.

Tuhoy ran a 15:14 and is moving backwards. When Valby running in the 1440s your little princess will be running in the 15:20s.

One of the foundational principles in the brilliance of Coach Timmons was Goal Setting. Timmons had the aptitude and experience to establish realistic ‘reach goals’, which the athlete would need to firstly buy-into in order to meet them. Simmons then could show the athlete the training methodology that would help them reach that goal.

We are a few weeks from constant doping allegations.

Theoretically, 70-71 400m speed is fast enough to run in the low 14:40’s.

If Valby can extend her 3000m fitness from last spring to 5000m, she can eventually break 14:20. But that would take years of consistent training.

I'd be surprised if a woman can cross train her way to sub 14:20.

Monson should be worried if PV gets into a modern training group with facilities which will allow her to effectively double her mileage without concomitant wear and tear on her bones.

Cross training is just one, of a multitude of the ‘training attributes’* (* includes everything…recovery, nutrition, etc.) to get to the 14:40’s in Outdoors 2023. Obviously, hitting critical workouts on the track would be one of the ‘attributes’.

Not gonna happen. KT is pretty maxed out at this point which isn't bad at all. Valby is whole another level of talent as long as she finds a way to stay healthy.

But here is a very very important point: said athlete should not be expected to run the eventual volume of those critical running workouts next week, as early as January, etc. It takes months and months of patient, ‘smart’ (informed, aware), buildup of consistent, (uninterrupted) training.

Running in "the 14:40's" is a big difference from running sub 14:20 like the other poster suggested.

In any case, I find it interesting that so many top women and girls have successfully used cross training recently. Parker Valby won a NCAA national championship. Natalie Cook won several high school national championships. Elizabeth Leachman is probably the top high school girls cross country runner right now.

Another critical attribute is the ‘smart’ coaching to provide objective ‘awareness’ of the athlete. Progression is never linear, but the athlete needs to eventually become more self-aware to know when to prematurely stop a prescribed workout.

(BTW, I think Coach Timmons was one of the greatest coaches this country has ever produced.)

I like both runners. It's too close to pick an NCAA winner between these two. It may come down to a sprint finish between them. I don't see a lot separating them.

Runners do need to keep something to get up that hill 150 m from the finish. Not a good place to be a fumes, especially if the footing gets sloppy.

I'm super excited to scroll through letsrun with a bowl of popcorn after nationals. The fans of whoever loses between the 2 will have a total meltdown, while the fans of the winner will be so full of themselves with their "I told you so"