Footlocker predictions

By the way, speaking of Chiara Dailey racing today, she also wore her moms old Footlocker singlet in her qualifying race today at Mt. SAC. This one was vintage 1994 and actually says Footlocker not Kinney (dont remember when it changed off the top of my head. Apparently after 1991). Her mom also won her regional race in 94 so another second generation repeat victory today like the Ritzenheins, although granted not quite on the same level. Her dad also ran Footlocker that year too apparently. Wondering how many other parents of fast kids have Footlocker singlets waiting for them in their closets exactly...

I think Abby Faith Cheeseman has a real chance in the girls race. NXN likely took a lot out of Leachman and Forsyth. Shea looks to be far from the form she was in last year (today she was 16 seconds back from her 3000m time from the same BU meet last year). Cheeseman is obviously comfortable running Balboa -- last year she was 4th and significantly overperformed relative to her regionals performance.

Now that we know who the qualifiers for Foot Locker are, and we know how NXN went, here is my updated prediction for Foot Locker:

1. Elizabeth Leachman
2. Rachel Forsyth
3. Abby Faith Cheeseman
4. Zariel Macchia
5. Ellie Shea
6. Ruth White
7. Allie Zealand
8. Chiara Dailey

9. Mary Bonner Dalton
10. Logan St. John Kletter

Despite their poor showing at NXN, Leachman and Forsyth are still the two girls in the best shape. They just need to learn to run smarter, which I think they will do at Foot Locker.

Shea isn't in the shape she was in last year, when she was the runner up.

Macchia seems to be peaking at the right time.

This is Chiara Dailey's home course, so that should allow her to finish higher than would at a course she isn't familiar with.

Im still leaning Forsyth. although not as enthusiastic after NXN. but conditions will be better and hopefully she and Leachman dont come in too beat up physically and emotionally after their experience in Portland. it was clear from the interview after the race that Rachel was burning for the win there and wasnt a happy camper about getting 5th. when asked if she signed up for both NXN and Footlocker just in case one didnt go as planned she kind of gave the interviewer an incredulous look and said no her intent was to win both. full stop. and thats good to hear. kid has a huge appetite to win and that hunger is definitely still there for her. maybe more so now.

It also helps a lot that there doesnt seem to be any "big game hunters" as Tom Feuer calls them who are fit enough to stay in contention and then track down flagging runners in the second half of races and pick them off like Ritzenhein and Michalak did. Michalak is notorious for that. same with Hedengren. but none of them will be at Footlocker. and Shea can do that too to some extent but she seems to be early in her fitness climb at this point so I dont see her doing that in this race.

I agree that Macchia has been looking good here lately but Macchia is an athlete that likes to run from the front and fight off any attempts to pass, shes not an athlete that picks you off in the end. And I dont see Forsyth or Leachman letting her lead much...

I do agree that Cheeseman is very dangerous, especially since shes run the race before. and also Claire Stegall who continues to float under the radar now into her junior year despite having some really fast times including multiple state records in a state that has Jenna Hutchins and Rebecca Story on the books. not sure why she is never in the conversation as the top elites in the country. shes got the times and shes got a killer instinct. but it has to be said that Leachman beat both of them easily in the regional race so I can certainly see them both in the top five but not sure about winning it all.

There was a moment at NXN when Leachman tracked down Forsyth who had gone out like a bullet (burning out Engelhardt in the process) and they both began to pull away from everyone else, shoulder to shoulder, not an inch separating them. and I remember thinking this is what Ive been waiting for for months. this moment. but it was fleeting of course. Forsyth faded and Leachman blew up and the altitude kids stormed in to fill the vacuum. it was great to see Ritzenhein run such a smart race and take the victory. so happy for her. but I hope we get another moment where the two most dominant runners in the country are going side by side again up and down Balboa's hills and into that final straight away. so thats what Im pulling for. those two to both run well. and then we'll see who takes it at the tape.

Englehardt ran NXN today.

“There was a moment at NXN when Leachman tracked down Forsyth who had gone out like a bullet (burning out Engelhardt in the process) and they both began to pull away from everyone else”

This wasn’t so epic in hindsight since they both imploded. Girls HS running needs more maturity. Every FL and NXN race is marked by untested athletes going for a knockout punch.

Saving my WEST singlet from 1983 hoping my son will wear IT

Plenty of boys do the same thing and plenty of girls dont. Case in point: Addison Ritzenhein. Just a sophomore... And anyway you cant really blame them for being "immature" and running like this here. Both those kids had been destroying almost every one they ran against this year, running historically fast times everywhere they ran, setting course record after course record. So you cant really blame them for falling into old habits and going with what worked all year which was full blast, damn the torpedoes (although I am curious what their coaches told them). They even were aware that they would need to consider a difference in their approach going into NXN. If you heard their premeet interviews they mention hills and weather conditions and that the race will be different for them than others. But I think their instinct got the better of them and they couldnt help themselves. Especially as this was the first match up between the two of them. Live and learn.

Lets see what they do next weekend at Footlocker. Can they make the adjustment or is the gas peddle stuck to the floor for them? Forsyth has burned herself out once already at Balboa when she was a sophomore. You would hope that experience and what happened to her this past weekend would lend her some pause in how to approach the race. She said after NXN that the race was a "learning experience". Lets see if that plays out before we write all girls off as "immature".

Cant wait to see it! 😁

For Leachman and Forsyth at NXN, it was either:

1. Their coaches told them to start the race as fast as possible. (Which makes no sense.)

2. Their coaches told them to start the race conservatively, and the girls thought they were smarter than their coaches, so they didn't listen. (Which makes no sense.)

3. The coaches decided not to talk to the girls about the race, so the girls just guessed at what their race strategy should be. (Which makes no sense.)

On a wet, muddy course, Leachman ran the first 2k at 16:01 pace, which is nuts. Forsyth wasn't far behind. There isn't any logical reason for that.

Some of you might think "Well, they didn't realize they were going really fast." That's not true. Leachman is known for going out like a crazy person, and Forsyth decided to gap Leachman. So when Forsyth got way ahead of Leachman, Forsyth KNEW she was going extremely fast.

Same for Leachman. She knew that Forsyth is known for going out like a crazy person, and Leachman decided to gap Forsyth. So Leachman also KNEW she was going extremely fast.

Leachman and Forsyth are two of the fastest girls starters in history. Any time you are gapping one of the fastest girls starters in history, you know you are going EXTREMELY fast. It wasn't a case of "Ooops, was I going really fast? I had no idea."

Or you are well rested and tapered and you actually don’t realize how fast you are running.

Both of them ran two very fast regional qualifying races right before NXN, so they weren't well rested.

Plus Leachman wears a watch and she looks at it frequently. She loves that thing. So yes, she knew exactly how fast she was going.

You know I don’t believe a single word you type because you aren’t Leachman. Go hate on Chep or Bekele or Gidey for actually DNF or falling or bailing on their XC races.

and the first 2K are net downhill, then you hit the wet uphills and at 3K you realize you are in trouble. Leachman was I think at the same pace as 2017 Tuohy thru 2k, but 10 seconds slower at 3K. The problem is based on her results this season she had no business trying to run at the Tuohy pace even in better conditions, and conditions Saturday were worse than 2017.

The conditions this year were terrible, and yet the winning time was faster than Tuohy’s wining time in 2019.

not sure what that has to do with this. 2019 was worse than 2017 and probably pretty close to 2023.

Because you were trying to throw shade on Leachman relative to KT, in the first place.

Shade? Just stating facts. Leachman's results while good and probably the best in the country this year were simply not as good as Tuohy's in 2017. She should not have gone out that fast. She admitted that in the post race interview.