There's no way anyone who can't run 1:42-low is going to get the record.
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high school xc coach wrote:
Though honestly, Ngeny doesn't appear to be a real good 800 runner either. stats are stats. he ran it several times only getting down to 1:44 mid
But this is where "stats" need to be put into context. Because there is a difference in what you can run for 800m and what time you run for 800m in a race.
So no, he may not have been a great racer of the 800m (and why would he be - he never practiced racing it and was like 5'9 135lbs) but that doesn't mean he didn't physiologically have the ability to run much faster. And they are separate things - you can be a great 800m racer and not necessarily the fastest runner of 800 meters (look at Nils Schumann - OC/EC and a PR of only 1.44.16) - he's 184th on the all time list.
We get a nice insight into what I'm talking about in that 1000m record he runs. He gets to run right behind the pacer (49.66 so he's right at 50.0) and doesn't have anyone in front of him after 650m - in fact he never has anyone in front of him except the pacemaker the entire way. Because of that he can hit 800m in 1.44.62 and still have enough strength to close out in 27.34. There is no reason to believe that if Ngeny hadn't wanted to run 800m in a time trial environment with someone carting him through in the same speed as this effort in Rieti, that he couldn't have run well under 1.44 and it's the peak physiology that matters here, not the tactical components that pertain to winning an actual 800m race.
Anyone that can run 1.44.62 and still have the ability to run another 200m in under 27.5 can run a very fast 800m.
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600yd/600m man wrote:
Stop hijacking threads.
Do you have an opinion regarding Y Nuguse racing sub-2:12 1000m?
Do you have an opinion regarding J Ingebrigtsen racing sub-2:12 1000m?
You need to concentrate. If I move slightly away from Y Nuguse & J Ingebrigtsen to make a point, next thing a 1/2 dozen of you want to debate me on an issue not related to O.P.'s topic. Move along.
If the point you’re making is based on blatantly false statements, you should expect to be corrected. There is no “debate”.
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
No chance.
I mean Jakob is borderline to get the 1500m record (I think he has a 30% chance under perfect circumstances) because despite being an anaerobic threshold monster, his anaerobic power (what makes good 800m runners) just isn't great. Yeah I think he can run low 1.45's in a 2 lap TT - that's not enough to break that record.
Look at the all-time list in the 1000m and the PR's of these guys
Ngeny 2.11.96: 1.44.49* > 3.28.12 (I asterisk this because he went 1.44.62 en route in that record so was surely a 1.43 low/mid runner)
Coe 2.12.18: 1.41.73 > 3.29.77
Cram 2.12.88: 1.42.88 > 3.29.67
Makhloufi 2.13.08: 1.42.61 > 3.28.75
Souleiman 2.13.49: 1.42.97 > 3.29.58
Jakob (and Nuguse, I shouldn't leave him out he's part of the question) clearly have the requisite ability over 1500m, but simply not over 800m. And 800m ability is the more important factor here (kind of obvious right?) - not 1500m ability.
I actually don't think we are going to see the 1000m record challenged now for a long time. That's because we have seen a shift away from the 8-1500 type runner of the 80's, 90's and 00's and now we really see a lot of straight 800m specialists with the vast majority of top 1500m runners now coming from the 1500-3000-5000 side and these runners don't have the speed to run that record. So finding a 1.42 runner that can also run sub 3.30 is really becoming difficult to find. Runners like Makhloufi and Wightman are really a dying breed figuratively speaking because they are throwbacks to that era of yesteryear. Someone mentioned Laros and that's a great name to bring up - I do wonder though how his career shapes up with respect to what his focus becomes - like does he start to put more focus on the 3000/5000 like Jakob in order to challenge the 3.27's/28's or does he keep trying to improve his 800m?
Obviously Makholoufi has retired so really Wightman is the only guy but I feel like he would almost need to take a second off his 800m PR to really consider putting him in the mix to run under 2.12. I don't see that happening. But as to Jakob and Jared - it's simply never going to happen.
I agree with your analysis but why no challenger from the 800 ranks? Wanyonyi (2 Running Club) comes from an endurance-emphasizing group that has 800/1500 athlete Nelly Chepchirchir as well. Considering they have him running XC, I don’t think it’s a stretch that he could dabble in the 1000/1500, even though Kenyan 800m runners don’t move around much (outside of 400s).
Because how many guys do we see running top class 800's also in these mega fast and deep 1500 races? It's only really Wightman. You mention Wanyoni but he's run 3.43 for 1500m and looking at him, he doesn't really strike me as someone we are ever going to see running under 3.30 right? It's all well and good to come from a training group with an endurance philosophy, this doesn't mean that you have that ability to run sub 3.30.
The event (1500) has just shifted away from 800m speed to 3/5000m endurance and yet this record can still only be broken by someone with incredible endurance despite the requisite of elite 2 lap ability.
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
high school xc coach wrote:
Though honestly, Ngeny doesn't appear to be a real good 800 runner either. stats are stats. he ran it several times only getting down to 1:44 mid
But this is where "stats" need to be put into context. Because there is a difference in what you can run for 800m and what time you run for 800m in a race.
So no, he may not have been a great racer of the 800m (and why would he be - he never practiced racing it and was like 5'9 135lbs) but that doesn't mean he didn't physiologically have the ability to run much faster. And they are separate things - you can be a great 800m racer and not necessarily the fastest runner of 800 meters (look at Nils Schumann - OC/EC and a PR of only 1.44.16) - he's 184th on the all time list.
We get a nice insight into what I'm talking about in that 1000m record he runs. He gets to run right behind the pacer (49.66 so he's right at 50.0) and doesn't have anyone in front of him after 650m - in fact he never has anyone in front of him except the pacemaker the entire way. Because of that he can hit 800m in 1.44.62 and still have enough strength to close out in 27.34. There is no reason to believe that if Ngeny hadn't wanted to run 800m in a time trial environment with someone carting him through in the same speed as this effort in Rieti, that he couldn't have run well under 1.44 and it's the peak physiology that matters here, not the tactical components that pertain to winning an actual 800m race.
Anyone that can run 1.44.62 and still have the ability to run another 200m in under 27.5 can run a very fast 800m.
I am not sure why 5’9 135 was mentioned with a possible insinuation that this is detrimental in racing 800m. My understanding is that Sebastian Coe was roughly 5’9 125 and he did OK at 800m.
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I heard that Ngeny was involved in a rather serious auto accident that effectively ended his career. If true, I would not be that enigmatic.
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Jakob could and Nuguse would need follow Jakob to do it.
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Yadde wrote:
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
But this is where "stats" need to be put into context. Because there is a difference in what you can run for 800m and what time you run for 800m in a race.
So no, he may not have been a great racer of the 800m (and why would he be - he never practiced racing it and was like 5'9 135lbs) but that doesn't mean he didn't physiologically have the ability to run much faster. And they are separate things - you can be a great 800m racer and not necessarily the fastest runner of 800 meters (look at Nils Schumann - OC/EC and a PR of only 1.44.16) - he's 184th on the all time list.
We get a nice insight into what I'm talking about in that 1000m record he runs. He gets to run right behind the pacer (49.66 so he's right at 50.0) and doesn't have anyone in front of him after 650m - in fact he never has anyone in front of him except the pacemaker the entire way. Because of that he can hit 800m in 1.44.62 and still have enough strength to close out in 27.34. There is no reason to believe that if Ngeny hadn't wanted to run 800m in a time trial environment with someone carting him through in the same speed as this effort in Rieti, that he couldn't have run well under 1.44 and it's the peak physiology that matters here, not the tactical components that pertain to winning an actual 800m race.
Anyone that can run 1.44.62 and still have the ability to run another 200m in under 27.5 can run a very fast 800m.
I am not sure why 5’9 135 was mentioned with a possible insinuation that this is detrimental in racing 800m. My understanding is that Sebastian Coe was roughly 5’9 125 and he did OK at 800m.
You know I had an answer typed out to this and then I came to the realization that if you don't understand the essence of what that one statement means, I'm wasting my time explaining it.
And Coe is a bad example - he was a great time trialler over the distance but won exactly one major championship over it (the 1986 Euros) and had some of the most infamous tactical gaffs in history relative to his ability over the distance (1980 Olympics and the 82 Euros where he got stuffed by a 1.45 flat runner in Hans-Peter Ferner). So if anything that actuals supports what I wrote. Nice attempt at picking a fight though.
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Yes of course Ngeny was 1:42 capable at his best he ran El G into the ground
As for the current group only Kerr has a shot at the 1000m record.
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
Yadde wrote:
I am not sure why 5’9 135 was mentioned with a possible insinuation that this is detrimental in racing 800m. My understanding is that Sebastian Coe was roughly 5’9 125 and he did OK at 800m.
You know I had an answer typed out to this and then I came to the realization that if you don't understand the essence of what that one statement means, I'm wasting my time explaining it.
And Coe is a bad example - he was a great time trialler over the distance but won exactly one major championship over it (the 1986 Euros) and had some of the most infamous tactical gaffs in history relative to his ability over the distance (1980 Olympics and the 82 Euros where he got stuffed by a 1.45 flat runner in Hans-Peter Ferner). So if anything that actuals supports what I wrote. Nice attempt at picking a fight though.
I completed eviscerated your point and now you have to cower in defeat. We are discussing running a fast 1000m or maybe 800m as it relates to this and that is closer to a time trial type race than a championship type race. You need to learn to admit when you offer stupid assertions instead of whining like a bltch.
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Wilson Kipketer was also built rather slightly and he did OK at 800. So maybe admit you are wrong here.
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dsrunner wrote:
Yes of course Ngeny was 1:42 capable at his best he ran El G into the ground
As for the current group only Kerr has a shot at the 1000m record.
Josh Kerr has shown nothing that gives him a possibility over the others.
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
Because how many guys do we see running top class 800's also in these mega fast and deep 1500 races? It's only really Wightman. You mention Wanyoni but he's run 3.43 for 1500m and looking at him, he doesn't really strike me as someone we are ever going to see running under 3.30 right? It's all well and good to come from a training group with an endurance philosophy, this doesn't mean that you have that ability to run sub 3.30.
The event (1500) has just shifted away from 800m speed to 3/5000m endurance and yet this record can still only be broken by someone with incredible endurance despite the requisite of elite 2 lap ability.
To be clear I don’t think he or Arop would be world-beaters at the 1500, just that they can manage the extra 200m. The 1,000 should be doable to 800m runners that are not wholly dependent on sub-46 or faster speed (aka Emmanuel Korir). Wanyonyi’s XC ability indicates to me he is very strong in terms of endurance. His PB comes from a Double at a March 22 meet in Kenya (he won his heat after running 1:45 in the 800). I think he could comfortably come through in 1:45-1:46 and I’d like to see what happens. His last 200 is a major strength.
This post was edited 48 seconds after it was posted.20 -
Yadde wrote:
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
You know I had an answer typed out to this and then I came to the realization that if you don't understand the essence of what that one statement means, I'm wasting my time explaining it.
And Coe is a bad example - he was a great time trialler over the distance but won exactly one major championship over it (the 1986 Euros) and had some of the most infamous tactical gaffs in history relative to his ability over the distance (1980 Olympics and the 82 Euros where he got stuffed by a 1.45 flat runner in Hans-Peter Ferner). So if anything that actuals supports what I wrote. Nice attempt at picking a fight though.
I completed eviscerated your point and now you have to cower in defeat. We are discussing running a fast 1000m or maybe 800m as it relates to this and that is closer to a time trial type race than a championship type race. You need to learn to admit when you offer stupid assertions instead of whining like a bltch.
Hahahaha - this was so good it made me for real laugh out loud. Nice one.
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
Because how many guys do we see running top class 800's also in these mega fast and deep 1500 races? It's only really Wightman. You mention Wanyoni but he's run 3.43 for 1500m and looking at him, he doesn't really strike me as someone we are ever going to see running under 3.30 right? It's all well and good to come from a training group with an endurance philosophy, this doesn't mean that you have that ability to run sub 3.30.
The event (1500) has just shifted away from 800m speed to 3/5000m endurance and yet this record can still only be broken by someone with incredible endurance despite the requisite of elite 2 lap ability.
To be clear I don’t think he or Arop would be world-beaters at the 1500, just that they can manage the extra 200m. The 1,000 should be doable to 800m runners that are not wholly dependent on sub-46 or faster speed (aka Emmanuel Korir). Wanyonyi’s XC ability indicates to me he is very strong in terms of endurance. His PB comes from a Double at a March 22 meet in Kenya (he won his heat after running 1:45 in the 800). I think he could comfortably come through in 1:45-1:46 and I’d like to see what happens. His last 200 is a major strength.
TL but come on - I believe you know know your stuff - you can’t discount the profiles of all the great 1000m runners (at least the ones at the top of the alltime list). We can guess all we want about guys ability but we surely can agree we are going to need to see Wanyoni (in this case) approach something in the realm of 3.30 flat for 1500m before this is even a discussion. Do you really see this happening? Really? And his final 200m might be a strength over 800m but the 1000m is 20% more running. And that’s considerable and not transferable (as you know).
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
To be clear I don’t think he or Arop would be world-beaters at the 1500, just that they can manage the extra 200m. The 1,000 should be doable to 800m runners that are not wholly dependent on sub-46 or faster speed (aka Emmanuel Korir). Wanyonyi’s XC ability indicates to me he is very strong in terms of endurance. His PB comes from a Double at a March 22 meet in Kenya (he won his heat after running 1:45 in the 800). I think he could comfortably come through in 1:45-1:46 and I’d like to see what happens. His last 200 is a major strength.
TL but come on - I believe you know know your stuff - you can’t discount the profiles of all the great 1000m runners (at least the ones at the top of the alltime list). We can guess all we want about guys ability but we surely can agree we are going to need to see Wanyoni (in this case) approach something in the realm of 3.30 flat for 1500m before this is even a discussion. Do you really see this happening? Really? And his final 200m might be a strength over 800m but the 1000m is 20% more running. And that’s considerable and not transferable (as you know).
Well of course we are speculating a little here. But as far as having respect for the distance, look at a guy like Abubaker Kaki. He ran 1:42.28 and he did manage a 2:13.62, both in 2010, and the next year he ran 3:31.76. So even though I think there are several ways to skin a cat or tackle the 1000m, you are correct that it is not easy to say that a fast 800m guy can do it, but it is also often not clear that he cannot. I don’t know how often Kaki raced 1000m, probably very few times, but he is another guy who had stellar credentials, although certainly not as stellar as Coe or Ngeny.
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If you understand David Rudisha as a runner you will understand why this record is so difficult. People often say he was a 400/800 guy but I think that is wrong - 1:40 is simply so much better than 45.5. He is further ahead of Brazier at 800m than he is at 400m, and Brazier ran a 3:35 1500m.
Rudisha was just so good at 800m that his 400m was class as well, but IMO he would have a solid 1500m, possibly better than Brazier (it is possible that although Brazier loses more from 400m to 800m, he still has better range.)
The point is rudisha is pure 800m guy and he didn't break the record. Now maybe he could've, and I would have loved to see him try, but he didn't. And pure 800m guys and 400/800m guys tend to be better at the 800m than 800/1500 guys. So I feel if anyone is to break this record, it would be a pure 800m runner who is just slightly better than Rudisha. Obviously very unlikely but IMO a 3:27 or sub guy with 1:42 speed is more unlikely.
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Ngeny was a monster. I remember reading a thread from a long time ago on here talking about a track club with 3:30 - 3:35 guys doing 400m repeats with him and just getting murdered one by one
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