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Most likely 2:08-2:09 but even a 2:07 guy will be more than 2 kms behind the winner that’s probably worse than being lapped in a 5000m race. East Africans are just so much better than our best marathoners. The best women can be closer to Americans than them to the best men. Sad but true.
One of the rules for a WR course eligibility is that the straight line distance (separation) from start to finish does not exceed 50% of total distance. The NYC Marathon separation is approximately 48%. The other WR requirement is that the elevation change from start to finish cannot exceed a drop of greater then 1 m/km.
Much prefer this to the usual BS we get from Kipchoge about aiming for "a beautiful race", gimme a breeeeaaaak
Kipchoge indicated before a recent marathon (Berlin last year?) that he wanted to break the world record, which doesn't seem like "the usual BS about aiming for 'a beautiful race.'" To be precise, he said he wanted to set a PB, but when your existing PB is the WR...
Running a marathon is brutal on the day and much more difficult in terms of recovery. Running it at midday is idiotic. Why not make it an unuusual event - think out of the box. Have it under lights at 8pm for instance (have you seen footage of the Rome olympics 1960. It looks great).
Regardless of your way out there comparison of a billion dollars vs sub-2:08. One thing I haven't seen mentioned in this thread really is "getting it right on the day."
So, he has run several 2:08/9s and Boston is not that fast on a non-tailwind year, where he has run 2:08:52. He is running Berlin which is likely the fastest course and will have several 2:08 athletes toe the line. And several others faster and slower.
He feels ready. Now, we can only run two or three optimal marathons per year, so getting it right on the day opportunities are far and few between. Not like a mid-d runner, who can mess up a few races without wrecking an entire season or year.
If he gets it right on the day, and everything out of his control is fine (whether, etc), then he can run a 2:06.
He needs to pace it very well, not do any surging, draft where appropriate and have no niggles going in. I doubt he will risk blowing up by going for 2:06, but I am sure he will get 2:07-mid toward 2:08.
What is this 2:11:30 (Men) time that is mentioned at the end of the article? If a country has 3 men who run under the standard of 2:08:10 they can choose anyone to send as long as they’ve run 2:11:30 within the qualifying window? Make it make sense..
Anyway, I have no doubt Fauble can hit the standard in Berlin. Bosshard really seems to know what he is doing in the marathon and if Fauble is able to run 2:08-2:09 in Boston and New York he can run 2:07 in Berlin.
The Olympic Marathon qualifying protocol allows any country to replace up to 3 qualified athletes (by time, rankings, or top 5 in a Platinum level marathon) as long as they have the alternate time of under 2:11:30. A country does not need to have an Olympic Trials race to determine their team. In fact, most countries do not. The alternate time is to ensure that the athletes have a respectable level of ability.
I'm all about self-confidence and visualization (if ya'll saw how I ran and what I achieved you'd believe me), but for Scott to say this out loud is idiotic. Even taking the Boston time this is ridiculous. Looking at Boston realistically, calling it a 2:10 at best, Mr. Burrito thinks he's going to go over two minutes faster?
In a smoking hot race with debris falling backwards? Who does he think is going to pull him to 2:07? He's going to do it on his own? Okay, then. I wish him the best, as he has the potential to be one of the best US marathoners, but like someone else said, you are who we think you are.
What is this 2:11:30 (Men) time that is mentioned at the end of the article? If a country has 3 men who run under the standard of 2:08:10 they can choose anyone to send as long as they’ve run 2:11:30 within the qualifying window? Make it make sense..
Anyway, I have no doubt Fauble can hit the standard in Berlin. Bosshard really seems to know what he is doing in the marathon and if Fauble is able to run 2:08-2:09 in Boston and New York he can run 2:07 in Berlin.