Will Jakob win both the 1500m and the 5000m in Budapest?

Only if the two events are independent of each other.

There is no way this man is winning 5.000m in Budapest. Mark this words. The Ethiopians will smash him.

You might feel it's unfair for someone to just show up and take their lunch money no questions asked, but it's gonna keep happening.

I'm giving Jakob a win in both 1500m and 5000m with 75%.
If he didn't start with the 1500m I would gave him a chance of 85% in the 5000m with a pace 12 min 45 sec.
To answer the biased and lacking wisdom Nick Kipleri.
25% removed from the chances du to strategies of the race, lack of fitness or injuries.

And how will they smash him? By running 12:30? You ought to know that he ran 12:48 two years ago. Easy. And he has developed since then. So a sober analysis, taken his 1500-speed into account, tells us that he is the favorite. They could have smashed him last year. Why did'nt they?

Ok

there are people who believe Jakob's prowess in the 5000 is some kind of fluke. no way. in 2019---4 years ago-- he ran a 13:02 at worlds, 19 years old by just days. led with around 200 to go, before he tied up bad on the last 100.

wasn't good enough yet, but still he was one of the guys even back then. He improved leaps and bounds from that guy to 2021, and has maybe even made a similar jump from 21 to now, based on his 2 mile.

+ 1

He'll win the 1500 from 1200 out, but if he even starts the 5000 he'll have trouble with how crazy that event has been lately, and be pushed way out of his comfort zone.

What you are saying is that two 90% events shall unfold, the combined probability is not 70%, but 81% if we view them as independent.

this is one of the things i love about track guys. NUMBERS

I don’t understand people who think this way. Jakob has run two big 5ks in the last two seasons (Florence 21, Eugene 22) and won both in dominant fashion against stacked fields. This year he sets a massive 2 mile world record (on par with or better than Komen’s 3k record) and you think a few guys running 12:40 on the Diamond league means he can’t compete anymore?

I can’t wait to come back to these threads after Jakob wins in the 12:55 - 13:10 range and see all the “experts” complaining that the Ethiopians didn’t run world record pace in the final lol

It's not two 90% events, but rather a 90% chance that at least one happens.

Say he had an 80% chance in each event (tbf, I think that's too high, particularly for the 5) then that's a 96% chance he'll win at least one of the two, and a 64% chance he wins both.

That is true, good point. If the events are independent and are equally probable the 90% chance of at least one event means that each event is 68.4% certain to give a win (1-0.9=no wins at all.). 47% combined win.
If we entertain the thought of them being dependent (which they surely are to some degree, 70% both and 90% atleast one):
Pa, win 1500
Pb, win 5000
Since 1500 is before 5000 the 1500 is independent of the 5000. The combined probability is then the probability of 1500 multiplied the probability of the 5000 given the positive result of the 1500.

Pboth = 70% => Pa*P(b|a)

Lets try to find an analytical solutions by plugging numbers for Pa.
If we use a 70% possibility of win in each single event that means that he will 100% win the 5000 if he wins the 1500 (given pboth=70%). If the Pa=Pb=85% we see that the posibility of winning 5000 after a 1500 win is 82.5%, which means a slight decrease. We can believe that to a certain degree -> if he were to trip up and have a fall (without injury) in the first 1500 race he would have more energy for the 5000, so that might be worth decreasing the P(B|A).

However, most likely a dominating win in 1500 will increase the possibility, so lets say it is 80% certain for Pa or Pb, giving a win in the 5000 after a 15000win a probability of 87.5%. Some increase, but not crazy.
Lets test this against the 90% of both events:

Lets write out (what I think is the combined probability of win in any event given they are dependent).
P(A)+P(B|A)*P(A)+P(B|A')*(1-P(A))=90

Plugging numbers:
P(A) = P(B) = 80%
P(B|A) = 87.5%
We see that this doesn't seem to hold as solving this for P(B|A') is a none answer.
Remember that P(B|A)*P(A) = 70%, plugging it in:
P(A)+0.7+P(B|A')*0.3=0.9
Solving numerically I cant seem to find a combination of 90% probability of win in at least one and a 70% in both that also gives a good possibility for each event as well as in the 5000 after a 1500 win or loss.

I have no idea why I wrote this down, and there is 90% chance of a math error or formula error in excel, 70% of both.

If the schedule is favorable he can win both races. He's an incredible runner.

And Cheptegei ran 12:35 three years ago. What does JI running 12:48 two years ago have to do with anything? JI won last year, yes. I wouldn’t say he was the most capable of the field on the day, however. He certainly ran the best strategy of the day. That doesn’t make him a lock for winning the 5000m this year. It seems to be anybody’s race of about five or six guys in the field, of which JI is a part.

It’s not a given. That’s why we hold races.

Except Cheptegei hasn't shown a marked improvement upon that form whereas Jakob definitely has, so that comparison isn't useful.

Not the most capable? What does that even mean? Do you mean his PR on paper was slower than some others in the race? Some good that did when he walked away from the field like they were nothing. What a meaningless statement. The point of a race is to win so by that metric he in fact was the most capable.

I'm quibbling with details here though I overall agree, but I see no issue with calling him the favorite. Doesn't mean he's guaranteed to win as you say, but it can be both.

I’m not of those who laugh out loud of your estimates here, because you have your reasons, and we need somebody with some daring assumptions (so we can laugh if / when reality’s is proven you wrong), and people giving probabilities in per cents (regardless of their balanced and modest approach) is the real laughable thing cause per cents estimates here always hides this fact: There’s too much uncertainty and lack of information to have an informed opinion! (And people are somewhat bad at seeking information, and even if they do it often can’t be found, and the problem is that we should stress uncertainty instead of so lightly giving per cents..). And this uncertainty is a big part of what makes this sport interesting -IMO!

I myself think Jakob is the favourite in both the 1500 and the 5000m… (But this is based on assumptions I cannot know for sure are right: That he isn’t injured, sick, overtrained / miscalculated his peak, and so on.)

Your 98% for the 1500m seems to high (but I get it that you try to make a point here with so high an estimate). -This event is the one with the highest speed without any lane separation at all (meaning a lot of things can go wrong). But with his general strategy and form Jakob surely is the clear favourite (Silesia showed that he pretty much can solo a 3.27.14 unhindered in the first bend) - IMO it’s likely flawed to say 98% or 75%; better to say “favourite” or “clear favourite”…

So to your 0.3% (5000m): Fine by me! Why not be so sure if you think your arguments are so strong!

But here’s my take: I think Jakob is in sub 12.40 shape, together with 2 or 3 of his opponents. But I think the former is a few (at least 2-3) seconds better than the others. And I base this on his 5000m merits, his 2 mile pr, and not the least his training that seems as well suited for the 5000m as for 1500 / 3000m. And he’s also got this reserve (on a day with bad 5000m day form): He can outrun the others on the home stretch / last lap(s) based on his 1500m speed…

What might support / not support your “Jakob being smashed in the 5000m”:

1. Fatigue after running three rounds in the 1500m. -Not likely, since this didn’t happen in Eugene, but you never know; humans are humans…

2. Someone in the field suddenly shows better capacity than Jakob -again not likely, but given the strong field this year one again doesn’t know…

3. Jakob can lose because of his own strategy / dream: He’s not in the race to (just) win (at all cost) -it matters a lot to him how he wins (in a honest way); meaning he won’t win as a 1500m runner, but as a 5000m runner -reserving a 100m burst win to a bad day..! But given the strong field someone can take his back the last couple of laps and “kill him” based on the advantage… In a few days we will know…!

I dunno.

A 7:54 2 mile this year? Who can live with that?