Cute to see all those guys running 12:4x. Jakob is still going to destroy them come Worlds.

A couple years ago around 2019 I only didn't like Jakob because of the fans lol. You guys quieted down for a bit but I see now that you guys are back in full force. The tuohy fans are still WAY WAY worse lol but you guys are seriously downplaying the competition. It's hard to win once let alone twice. It even harder to defend a title. I should make a post saying x____(not Jakob) will win the men's 15 or 5 and I'll get a whole bunch of laughing emojis, or people basically repeating Jakob's name as if that's a rebuttal. Just don't act like no other competitor is even competing.

I truly in my heart don't see him winning both titles. Think about what it takes to beat Yared or Katir. Then add that there are about 3-4 guys of a similar caliber to them waiting in the 5000.

Devils advocate if he does get the double this definitely puts him in the realm of a prime Lagat or someone like that.

Just look at the NCAA level.

When cooper ran a 3:50 mile I'm sure lots of you thought he'd steam roll the rest of the year. Who saw lawi lalang losing his last xc title or same thing with cheserek. Competition needs to be respected.

Translation: big dope going to beat a bunch of other dopes.

gonna be exactly like last year. awful weather in europe. gonna be 40 degrees its gonna go out slow pace and jakob will just out-long-kick everyone

Wait Mo Farah has ties to Jama Aden?!? I thought he was suspicious because of Salazar being his coach and that leaked document about his testosterone levels.

I've never understood the hype toward the 5000 races this year, given the inevitable

I think it is stupid to not like a runner because of the runners fans! I also think it is stupid to not like a runner or even hate one as many do on these boards.

I, however, agree that there of course is no certainty that Jakob will win the double even though he in my opinion is the heavy favorite in both events.

All the greats Morceli, Bekele, El-G, Mo Farah lost international championships races where they were clear favorites.

You state that Jakob will equal prime Lagat if he takes the double?! Jakob as a combined 1500m, 3000m/ 2mile and 5000m runner is already FAR better than Lagat ever was on the track. Try to make the sum of their respective World Athletics points for these 3 events.

Jakob is the best combined runner ever even though we use his current 5000m PB of 12:48 (and we know from his 2 mile WB that he at least can run 10 sec faster in the 5000m).

Finally: I agree that the competition should have some appreciation.

Have there ever been so many great runners in both the 1500m and the 5000m before? I don´t think so.

Jakob is Mr. Consistent since he was 10 years old... He ran already more k's with 10 than you with your age now...

Jakob is a beast. He's unimaginable experienced by his age, and top of the notch mentally. He is far stronger this year compared to when he ran 12.48. I guess sub 12.40, maybe WR-level.

His training-regime and mental fokus for several years has tuned him in to handle a lot of races in few days. He has competed in two distances for 7 or 8 international championships (Euro, World, olympics).

He is the big favourite in the 1500 and also in the 5 000. But as "objective observer" just said... many favorites have lost before.

I think you are wright in this. And I’m sure WADA now takes altitude training into accounts when analysing the blood passes… But the question is: Did they do this (adjusting for altitude) at the time (some time before 2016) Henrik’s fluctuations raised the red flags..!?

My amateurish research has brought me a scientific research from 2017 (cited repeatedly in the many threads on this forum, also by myself) based on the testing of all the athletes of two athletics championships 2011 / 2012 (Henrik was fifth in Olympic games 2012 -1500m). But the researchers here state that they hadn’t implemented / registered altitude training properly in their estimates of fluctuations in the blood passes…

My question based on my writings above is this: Could the WADA suspicions against Henrik be based on missing information/ evaluation of altitude training’s impact on blood pass fluctuation… (As the head Norwegian physician seems to suggest)?

I agree in what you are saying here, because there’s evidence Armstrong said this (including for the ten year period he later admitted being doped), and was tested. And we also know that although frequent tests can popp a few we know from cases that some goes clear…

But there are also some striking differences between Armstrong and Henrik:

1. As early as 1999 (more than a decade before being popped) some of Armstrongs tests was affirmative for Epo and steroids. -He only got clear because the methods of measurement was declared “research” and not properly formalised science (at the time).. As far as I know Henrik’s tests have no such problematic…

2. Blood pass was not a thing when Armstrong had his ten year long (admitted) doping period. Henrik on the other side has only been investigated because of fluctuations in the blood pass -despite his recorded altitude training (that might not been properly judged by the researchers)…

3. Even athletes with positive tests have been proven falsely accused. The latest case (based on blood pass) is Peter Bol. His suspension is now lifted (the B sample was incoherent) - two independent WADA labs concluded with severe misconduct in the measurement procedures that clearly could give a false positive…

The case above should say something about the need of caution dealing with blood passes (Bol f.ex may have natural high Epo levels in his blood). And one more important difference between Henrik and Armstrong -the latter was surrounded by a bulk of circumstantial evidence (eyewitnesses and so on). -Henrik seems to have nothing of that…

+1. Also expect he might stop to sign an autograph or two at the stands around lap 7-8.

I should've said the annoying fans make the athlete hard to root for.

Is there anyone in the field who is very good but has no kick and thus has to push the pace in order to medal (kind of like Gidey on the women's side)? Or do all the top 12:40ish guys have some sort of kick and thus may be reluctant to be the one to go hard?

I would call him favorite above 12:45... faster than that there are less tactics at play and much less left in the tank, and he'll feel the 1500s and the rest of the season much more.

The ABP is in full effect since 2009. Even before that, adjustments for altitude were made, see Paula's cases of 2003 - 2005.

I note that the Norwegians chose to neither reveal Henrik's values nor forms, making it hard to comment in detail. Missing information? Maybe, e.g. if Henrik failed to inform the IAAF (not WADA) about his altitude stay on the test form.

FYI, I just pulled up the leaked files. Henrik is one of only 16 athletes with the highest suspicion status of "likely doping", not simply judged by the software but listed as "Hematological Expert report opinion".

We know that for example 15% of the endurance athletes used in-competition blood doping at worlds 2013, thus a couple of 100. And that neither includes those who only blood doped out-of-competition nor all those road (marathon and otherwise) runners that never would go to worlds, but are included in the likely doping list like G. Mutai, nor those who weren't good enough to make it to worlds. Plus the likely doping list includes athletes like Yego (javelin) who were not part of the 100s of doping endurance athletes.

Long story short: the 16 likely dopers of that list were evidently only the tip of the iceberg. Most of them got only away because their doping needs to be proven by over 99.99% specificity. Very few of them had apparently medical conditions like Helah Kiprop and G. Mutai - not mentioned for Henrik anywhere, neither there, nor later by the Norwegians.

Aregawi is the answer IF he remains on the Ethiopian 5k team. He can kick, but he's not always the most comfortable in the pack and enjoys pushing the pace. Kiplimo also could fit into this equation as when he doesn't push from the front he can have a habit of falling too far back. A lot of this may also come down to weather. Cheptegei on the record has put a lot of stake into that as far as when asked why a championships race was slow or he didn't keep the pace on, he'll say something like it was too hot to run fast.

I'd say if the dewpoint is under 65, there's a high chance of a sub-13 race with a sub-4 type last mile (if not faster, or a longer ~ 2k+ drive to the finish). If it's over 65, more in the 13:05-13:15 range like last year. We should all root for mild temps because it will be more of a race and less of a slog.

Norwegian here. I find it very hard to say how Jakob's 5k will play out at World Champs. The 1500 is stiff too and he could very well end up with no golds

Please say you didn't compare worlds with NCAA's.

Yeah I did. If anything it should be HARDER to dominate the world scene and there's some posters here pretending as if there aren't several 12:40 low guys are not capable of winning the race.