Makh was an absolute monster "in his prime". If we're using the same testing protocols, I'd take Makh.
One should clarify that ^^^ first. What are the conditions regarding testing protocols, available drugs, shoes, track and training methods? The weather matters too, me thinks.
If it's with 2023 testing standards, tracks and shoes :
"In their prime" translates to "the fastest they ever ran." There is literally nothing more prime than the day you ran the fastest race in your life.
So, for this race and any other hypothetical like this, the fastest guy wins. The slowest guy comes in last.
/endthread
Yes, it means being capable running the fastest they ever will, but if you put all twelve of them in a race without pacemaking, it isn’t gonna go in the order of PBs. Positioning, tactics and kicks may come into it.
Assuming they all run the way they normally ran whilst in their prime, Jakob likely takes the pace, but given the calibre of the field he won’t run away from them the way he can today. I think in this scenario it likely comes down to Kiprop or El Guerrouj, but most likely El Guerrouj.
If the pace lags, I think I’d back Morceli. I never saw him race at the time but I’ve seen plenty videos and his gear change and acceleration was incredible.
There isn’t a possible scenario in which El Guerrouj doesn’t finishes 1st or 2nd.
Jakob, Morceli, El Guerrouj, Kiprop, Ngeny are very fast runners who would take big risks letting that race go too slow. Ngeny is probably the only one who can be fine either way.
And they’re never letting this race go slow knowing there’s Centro, Makhloufi, Cacho and the greatest kicker of all time Coe in the field. Jakob and El Guerrouj know they won’t medal in a 3:40+ race and they’re both not afraid to push the pace. Obviously they won’t do it from the gun, but I could see El Guerrouj making a big move at 700 to try to take the kick out of everyone in the last 800m, just like he did in 2004, with Jakob following close behind and matching every move to try to outkick him in the homestretch, like he did with Tim in 2021. Then we could have someone like Ngeny trying to pull a Sydney in the last few meters, but I just don’t see the first 700m being slow enough for a non sub 3:28 runner to have a chance if we don’t account for the shoes and different tracks and conditions.
Ngeny could win but not 1s+ margin on Morceli and even more on El Gerrouj. There would be a dense pack of athletes in the last 100
Probably was a little optimistic with the time and gap between the best of all time. My main idea with how this race plays out was that El G tries to get to the front with guys like Jakob and Morceli fighting him for it, he fears the kicks of guys like Cacho, Centro, and maybe even Kiprop who can drop some mean laps. So El G leads but doesn't get it setup the way he'd like and probably has Jakob surge on him which kind of saps his race. Thus I saw him fading through the last 200 while Jakob starts to reestablish himself, only then to have Morceli and Ngeny line up behind him and go after him.
I think the most interesting question here is what kind of race plays out. Are guys like Jakob still as confident with multiple 3:26 guys in the race? Do the kickers like Centro try to slow it down and cause issues for the "on paper favorites? Would be a cool dynamic to see.
El Gerrouj fading is like a unicorn. A thing that has never been seen.
Nobody cares about Centro in this field. He is a non factor.
"In their prime" translates to "the fastest they ever ran." There is literally nothing more prime than the day you ran the fastest race in your life.
So, for this race and any other hypothetical like this, the fastest guy wins. The slowest guy comes in last.
/endthread
What a stupid observation. To put them in the same race presumes they have all the advantages of competing - and training - in the same era. That levels it for all of them.
The proposed assumption is they are all "in their prime."
El G ran 3:26 in his prime.
Which runner, in his prime, ran faster than that?
Again,
/endthread
It isn't a comparison of times but abilities. To compete in the same era would put them on the level ground of sharing the same conditions and advantages.
Man, you must still be having a hangover from celebrating your boss Aden's acquittal.
The OP listed Coe twice. Anyway, my point was just to highlight how silly such questions are when shoes, tracks, competition, and most importantly doping differed so much between them.
"In their prime" translates to "the fastest they ever ran." There is literally nothing more prime than the day you ran the fastest race in your life.
So, for this race and any other hypothetical like this, the fastest guy wins. The slowest guy comes in last.
/endthread
What a stupid observation. To put them in the same race presumes they have all the advantages of competing - and training - in the same era. That levels it for all of them.
El G in supershoes and wavelights wins in 3:22 then records the highest EPO reading ever seen in the post-race testing sample.
This thread isn't about who had the fastest times. That isn't a discussion. That's just a list. But if you put previous champions in the same era - which we would have to do if they were to race - that changes it. They all compete sharing the same conditions, that include training, shoes and tracks - and drugs, which have come to dominate the sport.
Human physiology hasn't "evolved" in the last fifty years; training little, as well as shoes and tracks. The development that has been ongoing and has above all led to faster and faster times is doping.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Anyway, my point was just to highlight how silly such questions are when shoes, tracks, competition, and most importantly doping differed so much between them.
Your first post was prejudiced garbage and you know it.
For this question I wasn’t imagining that the runners from the past benefit from a lifetime of training and racing in a more modern era; they are just teleporting through time and handed a pair of new spikes and it’s show time. Yes that puts them at a disadvantage, but it makes the hypothetical much more possible to predict. There’s also no drug testing on this day, the athletes are only subject to whatever testing they had to be ready for in their respective primes. There’s no way to know who would be doing what if they raced in a different era, and that includes Jakob and other white athletes too.
At ages 2, 3, and 5, I think we can safely assume none of them would finish.
Given the healthier environment for children in African countries, I would give the advantage to Walker, Coe, Centrowicz, and Ingebrigsten at ages 7, 11, and 13.
Ages 17, 19, 23, 29, and 31 I have to give it to El Guerrouj; he is the WR holder after all.
I personally don't know of any who continued to compete as a Master runner so ages 37, 41, 43, and 47 are a real toss-up. We can probably toss out Centrowicz because he will probably get heavy like his father and most Americans by his 40s.
Once we hit 53, 59, 61, 67, 71 and 73, well, I must go with Coe. Like him or not as head of WA, the guy still looks in great shape for his age.
Beyond that, attrition will start to eliminate the contenders. I'm sure several will make it to 79 and 83, but, just like as toddlers, most will not be able to finish.
By 89, 97, and 101, we can safely say that there will be no finishers and very few will be alive.
This is definitely one way of looking at it, but I believe you’re mistaken on some points.
I’m sure all of these men could finish the race as 5 year olds. 5 year olds are easily old enough to traverse 1500 meters on foot and smart enough to understand the basic concept of a foot race. Betting money is on Jakob, who Gjert’s probably got sleeping in some kind of incubator at that age.
Jakob would win at ages 13, 17 and 19 for sure. The only track result listed for El Guerrouj before 19.5 years is a 13:46 5k for 3rd at World Juniors, and his 1500 PB when he turned 20 was 3:33.61. Jakob ran 4:05 the day after his 14th birthday, 3:31.18 at 17, and 3:28.68 at 19.
John Walker would definitely win at 37 and that would likely carry over to 41 and 43 as well. He ran 3:35.96/3:54.28 at 37, and 3:37.28/3:55.19 at 38.
Jakob will be able to finish at 97 and 101 and probably still be clocking at least mid-3:30s. Jakob is forever.
Anyway, my point was just to highlight how silly such questions are when shoes, tracks, competition, and most importantly doping differed so much between them.
Your first post was prejudiced garbage and you know it.
For this question I wasn’t imagining that the runners from the past benefit from a lifetime of training and racing in a more modern era; they are just teleporting through time and handed a pair of new spikes and it’s show time. Yes that puts them at a disadvantage, but it makes the hypothetical much more possible to predict. There’s also no drug testing on this day, the athletes are only subject to whatever testing they had to be ready for in their respective primes. There’s no way to know who would be doing what if they raced in a different era, and that includes Jakob and other white athletes too.
No I do not know it, the last 10 Olympic Champions have been a whose who of obvious dopers and suspicious performances.
I gave Centro 3rd because he at least ran under the ABP, even though he is sketchy as hell being both a NOP product and ex-boyfriend of burrito girl.
And are you the moderator who banned me for life for teasing a homophobe who wants to see black kids roided to the max for his entertainment?
And BTW- restore the 'Katir is the most obvious doper of all time' thread.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Man, you must still be having a hangover from celebrating your boss Aden's acquittal.
The OP listed Coe twice. Anyway, my point was just to highlight how silly such questions are when shoes, tracks, competition, and most importantly doping differed so much between them.
It's obvious that you havn't understood the question.
Coe (1980)
Coe (1984)
You are just beyond stupidity. But, yes, already the OP showed to be stupid when asking for a race of the last 12 Olympic 1500m champions and then lists a race of 11.
The question - as I understood it - asks for the result in a hypothetical race of those 11 (should be 12 including Vasala) in he best form all of them ever (actually) had.
The only adaption we give to the older ones are the current shoes and all are running on the same track.
It's extremely hard to see Coe in the top 5.
The winner almost certainly would come from this group:
Your first post was prejudiced garbage and you know it.
For this question I wasn’t imagining that the runners from the past benefit from a lifetime of training and racing in a more modern era; they are just teleporting through time and handed a pair of new spikes and it’s show time. Yes that puts them at a disadvantage, but it makes the hypothetical much more possible to predict. There’s also no drug testing on this day, the athletes are only subject to whatever testing they had to be ready for in their respective primes. There’s no way to know who would be doing what if they raced in a different era, and that includes Jakob and other white athletes too.
No I do not know it, the last 10 Olympic Champions have been a whose who of obvious dopers and suspicious performances.
I agree with you here that Coe is extremely suspicious, but an OBVIOUS doper? Why are you so certain Coe must have doped?
There isn’t a possible scenario in which El Guerrouj doesn’t finishes 1st or 2nd.
Jakob, Morceli, El Guerrouj, Kiprop, Ngeny are very fast runners who would take big risks letting that race go too slow. Ngeny is probably the only one who can be fine either way.
Kiprop at his best (2015, not 2016) could live with either a fast or slow race. Here he splits close to 38 flat for the last 300 of a 3:34 race running wide on the curve:
Men's 1500m final at the 1993 Stuttgart World Championships.RESULTS:1. Noureddine Morceli (ALG) 3:34.242. Fermín Cacho (ESP) 3:35.563. Abdi Bile (SOM) 3:35.9...
I notice you’re using the username “El Guerrouj 1:46 last 800 in 2004,” which was obviously an all-time performance. But consider that Lagat split slightly faster than El G and nearly beat him (.11 behind) and that Rui Silva split faster for the last 800 than both of them and was only .49 behind El G at the finish. There are certainly other men in this hypothetical who can run a ~1:46.7 800 off of a 1:47 first 700m.
No I do not know it, the last 10 Olympic Champions have been a whose who of obvious dopers and suspicious performances.
I gave Centro 3rd because he at least ran under the ABP, even though he is sketchy as hell being both a NOP product and ex-boyfriend of burrito girl.
And are you the moderator who banned me for life for teasing a homophobe who wants to see black kids roided to the max for his entertainment?
And BTW- restore the 'Katir is the most obvious doper of all time' thread.
No, I didn’t ban you for life. I don’t even have the ability to restore threads. Posters are always saying “mods, could you do something about this?” and the answer is almost always “No, I literally cannot,” which is fine by me.
Ya'll still haven't arrived at the obvious answer?
In his prime El G ran a time that nobody else in human history has touched.
But to up the ante, in super shoes he could drop a 3:24.5 or faster.
Jakob, with all the advances in shoes, training, nutrition, tracks, pacing lights, etc., hasn't bettered El G's prime time. He can't beat what El G did in some crappy waffle racers. You think he, or anyone else, could touch him if El G had all those advances?