Only a tiny percentage of humans live to be 100. How many sub-4 milers were there in the world in 1970? If only 1 or 2 survive to 100 they are probably beating the odds.
A lot higher percentage are superhuman enough to be 100, than to run a sub 4 mile. So how can these sub 4 guys be so great? Supposedly the greatest few thousand humans ever assembled, but can't even compare to centenarians, many of whom were physically average.
This all loops back to my hypothesis that top elites burn their metabolic candle at both ends. They burn twice as bright and then poof, they're gone.
All those race memories, gone like tears in the rain. time to die
6 May 54 Roger Bannister UK 3:59.4 Born 23 Mar 1929 Died 2 Mar 2019 21 Jun 54 John Landy Aus 3:57.9 Born 12 Apr 1930 Died 24 Feb 2022 28 May 55 László Tábori Hun 3:59.0 Born 6 July 1931 Died 23 May 2018 28 May 55 Chris Chataway UK 3:59.8 Born 13 Jan 1931 Died 19 Jan 2014 28 May 55 Brian Hewson UK 3:59.8 Born 4 Apr 1933 Died 13 Sep 2022 5 May 56 Jim Bailey Aus 3:58.6 Born 21 Jul 1929 Died 31 Mar 2020 1 Jun 56 Ronnie Delany Ire 3:59.0 Born 6 Mar 1935 1 Jun 56 Gunnar Nielsen Den 3:59.1 Born 25 Mar 1928 Died 29 May 1985 6 Aug 56 Derek Ibbotson UK 3:59.4 Born 17 Jun 1932 Died 23 Feb 2017 26 Aug 56 István Rózsavölgyi Hun 3:59.0 Born 30 Mar 1929 Died 27 Jan 2012 23 Mar 57 Merv Lincoln Aus 3:58.9 m 3:55.9 8 Born 22 Nov 1933 Died 1 Amy 2016 1 Jun 57 Don Bowden USA 3:58.7 Born 8 Aug 1936 19 Jul 57 Stanislav Jungwirth Cze 3:59.1 Born 15 Aug 1930 Died 11 Apr 86 19 Jul 57 Ken Wood UK 3:59.3 Born 21 Nov 1930 Died 8 Sep 2008 19 Jul 57 Dan Waern Swe 3:59.3 Born 17 Jan 1933 7 Aug 57 Olavi Vuorisalo Fin 3:59.1 Born 5 Apr 1933 4 Sep 57 Roger Moens Belgium 3.58.9 Born 26 Apr 1930 25 Jan 58 Herb Elliott Aus 3:59.9 Born 25 Feb 1938 6 Aug 58 Murray Halberg NZ 3:57.5 Born 7 Jul 1933 Died 30 Nov 2022 6 Aug 58 Albie Thomas Aus 3:58.6 Born 8 Feb 1933 Died 27 Oct 2013 3 Sep 58 Zbigniew Orywal Pol 3:59.7 Born 5 Apr 1930 28 May 59 Siegfried Valentin Ger 3:56.5 Born 23 Feb 1936 Died 17 Dec 2021 23 Apr 60 Dyrol Burleson USA 3:58.6 Born 27 Apr 1940 28 May 60 Jim Beatty USA 3:58.0 Born 24 Oct 1934 23 Sep 60 Terry Sullivan Rho 3:59.8 Born 7 Sep 1935 23 Sep 60 Gordon Pirie UK 3:59.9 Born 10 Feb 1931 Died 7 Dec 1991 27 Jan 62 Peter Snell NZ 3:54.4 Born 17 Dec 1938 Died 12 Dec 2019 27 Jan 62 Bruce Tulloh UK 3:59.3 Born 29 Sep 1935 Died 28 Apr 2018 25 Feb 62 Siegfried Herrmann Ger 3:59.9 Born 7 Nov 1932 Died 14 Feb 2017 28 Apr 62 Jim Grelle USA 3:59.9 Born 30 Sep 1936 Died 13 Jun 2020
of the first 30 sub-4 milers, 20 have died, 10 still alive. Roger Moens is the oldest
Baker is a good choice. He died in 1970. I can't think of any sub four guy who went before that.
I didn’t read every post but of course Ivo Van Damme ran 1:43 and 3:36 in July of 1976 and he died in December that year at age 22. Not sure if he ever raced a mile as an elite.
6 May 54 Roger Bannister UK 3:59.4 Born 23 Mar 1929 Died 2 Mar 2019 21 Jun 54 John Landy Aus 3:57.9 Born 12 Apr 1930 Died 24 Feb 2022 28 May 55 László Tábori Hun 3:59.0 Born 6 July 1931 Died 23 May 2018 28 May 55 Chris Chataway UK 3:59.8 Born 13 Jan 1931 Died 19 Jan 2014 28 May 55 Brian Hewson UK 3:59.8 Born 4 Apr 1933 Died 13 Sep 2022 5 May 56 Jim Bailey Aus 3:58.6 Born 21 Jul 1929 Died 31 Mar 2020 1 Jun 56 Ronnie Delany Ire 3:59.0 Born 6 Mar 1935 1 Jun 56 Gunnar Nielsen Den 3:59.1 Born 25 Mar 1928 Died 29 May 1985 6 Aug 56 Derek Ibbotson UK 3:59.4 Born 17 Jun 1932 Died 23 Feb 2017 26 Aug 56 István Rózsavölgyi Hun 3:59.0 Born 30 Mar 1929 Died 27 Jan 2012 23 Mar 57 Merv Lincoln Aus 3:58.9 m 3:55.9 8 Born 22 Nov 1933 Died 1 Amy 2016 1 Jun 57 Don Bowden USA 3:58.7 Born 8 Aug 1936 19 Jul 57 Stanislav Jungwirth Cze 3:59.1 Born 15 Aug 1930 Died 11 Apr 86 19 Jul 57 Ken Wood UK 3:59.3 Born 21 Nov 1930 Died 8 Sep 2008 19 Jul 57 Dan Waern Swe 3:59.3 Born 17 Jan 1933 7 Aug 57 Olavi Vuorisalo Fin 3:59.1 Born 5 Apr 1933 4 Sep 57 Roger Moens Belgium 3.58.9 Born 26 Apr 1930 25 Jan 58 Herb Elliott Aus 3:59.9 Born 25 Feb 1938 6 Aug 58 Murray Halberg NZ 3:57.5 Born 7 Jul 1933 Died 30 Nov 2022 6 Aug 58 Albie Thomas Aus 3:58.6 Born 8 Feb 1933 Died 27 Oct 2013 3 Sep 58 Zbigniew Orywal Pol 3:59.7 Born 5 Apr 1930 28 May 59 Siegfried Valentin Ger 3:56.5 Born 23 Feb 1936 Died 17 Dec 2021 23 Apr 60 Dyrol Burleson USA 3:58.6 Born 27 Apr 1940 28 May 60 Jim Beatty USA 3:58.0 Born 24 Oct 1934 23 Sep 60 Terry Sullivan Rho 3:59.8 Born 7 Sep 1935 23 Sep 60 Gordon Pirie UK 3:59.9 Born 10 Feb 1931 Died 7 Dec 1991 27 Jan 62 Peter Snell NZ 3:54.4 Born 17 Dec 1938 Died 12 Dec 2019 27 Jan 62 Bruce Tulloh UK 3:59.3 Born 29 Sep 1935 Died 28 Apr 2018 25 Feb 62 Siegfried Herrmann Ger 3:59.9 Born 7 Nov 1932 Died 14 Feb 2017 28 Apr 62 Jim Grelle USA 3:59.9 Born 30 Sep 1936 Died 13 Jun 2020
of the first 30 sub-4 milers, 20 have died, 10 still alive. Roger Moens is the oldest
Of this list it would be interesting to see how they they'd be ranked as milers/1500 runners. Some found great success at longer distances. Just off a quick review I'd say top five: Elliott, Snell, Delaney, Rozsavolgyi, Bannister. Maybe on another day my list would be different.
So far they are dropping like flies well below the age of 100.
Yes, I know it's too early for any to be 100. But it doesn't look like many, if any, are gonna make it.
The overwhelming majority on Sir Bastion Newbold's list who have passed did so beyond age 80, not to mention all those still alive are over 80 now. Only a small handful of somewhat early deaths, which I'd be interested in knowing what took their lives.
They're not dropping like flies, most are living > 30% more than the life expectancy of a man born in 1940 UK, which is 63 years.
Statistica notes 573k centurians. Assume ~8 billion people that's only 0.00716%, but the majority of those are woman, so it would be a very rare occurrence for a man to run sub 4 and exceed 100 yrs old. Japan has the highest rate of centurians at 0.06%, but not too many sub 4 runners!
Only a tiny percentage of humans live to be 100. How many sub-4 milers were there in the world in 1970? If only 1 or 2 survive to 100 they are probably beating the odds.
A lot higher percentage are superhuman enough to be 100, than to run a sub 4 mile. So how can these sub 4 guys be so great? Supposedly the greatest few thousand humans ever assembled, but can't even compare to centenarians, many of whom were physically average.
This all loops back to my hypothesis that top elites burn their metabolic candle at both ends. They burn twice as bright and then poof, they're gone.
T&F is like a large conglomerate. So many unique talents on T&F team. Middle distance runners who never bought in to high mileage and continue to run but don't bother with 1/2 Marathons to altras seem to live longer than the rest of T&F team.
Baker is a good choice. He died in 1970. I can't think of any sub four guy who went before that.
John Baker, I believe, died of cancer. I recall reading an article entitled "John Baker's Last Race" back in the early 1970's. He spent his last months coaching underprivileged youth.
Yes, Baker died of cancer. I didn't notice the thing about Vietnam when I first read the other post.
I sent his list to my dad (an aging runner) so he could walk doen memory lane, and he asked about Michel Jazy (still alive at 87). It looks like he broke four several months after the first thirty to do it (so not on the list). He did it October 3, 1962.
In looking for that, I found this list of first sub-four runners by country, which some of you might find interesting.
T&F is like a large conglomerate. So many unique talents on T&F team. Middle distance runners who never bought in to high mileage and continue to run but don't bother with 1/2 Marathons to altras seem to live longer than the rest of T&F team.
What do the shoes they wear have to do with life expectancy?
T&F is like a large conglomerate. So many unique talents on T&F team. Middle distance runners who never bought in to high mileage and continue to run but don't bother with 1/2 Marathons to altras seem to live longer than the rest of T&F team.
What do the shoes they wear have to do with life expectancy?
T&F is like a large conglomerate. So many unique talents on T&F team. Middle distance runners who never bought in to high mileage and continue to run but don't bother with 1/2 Marathons to altras seem to live longer than the rest of T&F team.
What do the shoes they wear have to do with life expectancy?
I would expect boost to have more of an effect on that. Extra 10 years maybe
I sent his list to my dad (an aging runner) so he could walk doen memory lane, and he asked about Michel Jazy (still alive at 87). It looks like he broke four several months after the first thirty to do it (so not on the list). He did it October 3, 1962.
In looking for that, I found this list of first sub-four runners by country, which some of you might find interesting.
The overwhelming majority on Sir Bastion Newbold's list who have passed did so beyond age 80, not to mention all those still alive are over 80 now. Only a small handful of somewhat early deaths, which I'd be interested in knowing what took their lives.
They're not dropping like flies, most are living > 30% more than the life expectancy of a man born in 1940 UK, which is 63 years.
Statistica notes 573k centurians. Assume ~8 billion people that's only 0.00716%, but the majority of those are woman, so it would be a very rare occurrence for a man to run sub 4 and exceed 100 yrs old. Japan has the highest rate of centurians at 0.06%, but not too many sub 4 runners!
You need to evaluate your numerator and denominator. You can’t use the overall global population as the denominator to calculate the percentage. I’m too lazy to type the details, but I think you’re sharp enough to get why with a bit of thought.
6 May 54 Roger Bannister UK 3:59.4 Born 23 Mar 1929 Died 2 Mar 2019 21 Jun 54 John Landy Aus 3:57.9 Born 12 Apr 1930 Died 24 Feb 2022 28 May 55 László Tábori Hun 3:59.0 Born 6 July 1931 Died 23 May 2018 28 May 55 Chris Chataway UK 3:59.8 Born 13 Jan 1931 Died 19 Jan 2014 28 May 55 Brian Hewson UK 3:59.8 Born 4 Apr 1933 Died 13 Sep 2022 5 May 56 Jim Bailey Aus 3:58.6 Born 21 Jul 1929 Died 31 Mar 2020 1 Jun 56 Ronnie Delany Ire 3:59.0 Born 6 Mar 1935 1 Jun 56 Gunnar Nielsen Den 3:59.1 Born 25 Mar 1928 Died 29 May 1985 6 Aug 56 Derek Ibbotson UK 3:59.4 Born 17 Jun 1932 Died 23 Feb 2017 26 Aug 56 István Rózsavölgyi Hun 3:59.0 Born 30 Mar 1929 Died 27 Jan 2012 23 Mar 57 Merv Lincoln Aus 3:58.9 m 3:55.9 8 Born 22 Nov 1933 Died 1 Amy 2016 1 Jun 57 Don Bowden USA 3:58.7 Born 8 Aug 1936 19 Jul 57 Stanislav Jungwirth Cze 3:59.1 Born 15 Aug 1930 Died 11 Apr 86 19 Jul 57 Ken Wood UK 3:59.3 Born 21 Nov 1930 Died 8 Sep 2008 19 Jul 57 Dan Waern Swe 3:59.3 Born 17 Jan 1933 7 Aug 57 Olavi Vuorisalo Fin 3:59.1 Born 5 Apr 1933 4 Sep 57 Roger Moens Belgium 3.58.9 Born 26 Apr 1930 25 Jan 58 Herb Elliott Aus 3:59.9 Born 25 Feb 1938 6 Aug 58 Murray Halberg NZ 3:57.5 Born 7 Jul 1933 Died 30 Nov 2022 6 Aug 58 Albie Thomas Aus 3:58.6 Born 8 Feb 1933 Died 27 Oct 2013 3 Sep 58 Zbigniew Orywal Pol 3:59.7 Born 5 Apr 1930 28 May 59 Siegfried Valentin Ger 3:56.5 Born 23 Feb 1936 Died 17 Dec 2021 23 Apr 60 Dyrol Burleson USA 3:58.6 Born 27 Apr 1940 28 May 60 Jim Beatty USA 3:58.0 Born 24 Oct 1934 23 Sep 60 Terry Sullivan Rho 3:59.8 Born 7 Sep 1935 23 Sep 60 Gordon Pirie UK 3:59.9 Born 10 Feb 1931 Died 7 Dec 1991 27 Jan 62 Peter Snell NZ 3:54.4 Born 17 Dec 1938 Died 12 Dec 2019 27 Jan 62 Bruce Tulloh UK 3:59.3 Born 29 Sep 1935 Died 28 Apr 2018 25 Feb 62 Siegfried Herrmann Ger 3:59.9 Born 7 Nov 1932 Died 14 Feb 2017 28 Apr 62 Jim Grelle USA 3:59.9 Born 30 Sep 1936 Died 13 Jun 2020
of the first 30 sub-4 milers, 20 have died, 10 still alive. Roger Moens is the oldest
Update: Olavi Vuorisalo Died 11 Dec 2024
So, of the first 30 sub-4 milers, 21 have died, 9 still alive. The oldest, Roger Moens, turns 95 on 26 April.
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