Teare and Kessler (unfortunately) go home devastated
I don't see Green beating Teare, Nuguse, Kessler, Engels, or Prakel without the UW squad confidence/post NCAAs.
1. Teare
2. Nuguse
3. Centro
Winning time over 3:35 and that's the only reason Centro makes it (runs the least distance and kicks well). I think Nuguse is the fittest but makes his first tactical error this season and Teare takes advantage of it.
If the stalwarts all make the final, who has the incentive to make it fast? Not Nuguse, because he is confident about his kick and closed in sub-26 in a 3:47 mile. Not Hocker, because he's a kicker. Not Teare, because he believes in his kick. Not Centro, because he knows his kick (but he'll position himself close to the leader) though he could lead the race at a slow and gathering pace like he did seven years ago. Not Holt because he's a dark horse and knows he doesn't have the ability yet to run away from this group. Not Kessler, because he believes he's a kicker. But it may be mid 3:30s because otherwise these guys would be jogging.
I'm not convinced every single contender actually believes they can rely on their kick in this race. Sure, most of them have good speed, but only three people can make top 3, right? Only three of the kickers you listed are gonna make it.
I'm not an elite runner and perhaps may not be as good a tactician, but in my mind, if I have the fitness to put the hurt on this field early, I'm going to do it. That means I think Nuguse will try to run fast. Yes he closed in a 26 on a 3:47, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can run much faster off a slower pace. Perhaps the other who've run fast this year (Teare & Kessler) will go with that move. Hocker might just hang close enough to close into top 3.
No kidding. Kessler PRs and the other two both run their second fastest times ever = pretty tactical.
Who says a race tactic can’t be to run a fast race?
Oh is that what you meant in the OP? Really? I suppose every race is 100% tactical really, so there’s no point in even mentioning it then.
My predictions for top 3 are Nuguse - Teare - Hocker. I think the most likely scenario for how the race plays out is someone (anyone, but maybe Gregorek or Prakel) leads through 600 in an even 89-90 seconds, Nuguse takes the lead with ~800 to go but barely picks it up initially (1:59 at 800, ~43.0 from 800 to 1100), before closing in 52.xx to win in 3:34-3:35.
59.7
59.8 (1:59.5)
56.8 (2:56.3)
38.9 (3:35.2)
Teare runs near the front the whole race and is in 2nd place through the entire last lap. Hocker hangs back with Kessler right behind him and moves up to 3rd with a big last 300, but Kessler waits a bit too long/runs a bit too wide/cedes a bit too much ground and is only able to get up to 4th place at the last second.
I know this is specific enough that there’s practically zero chance it will go down just like this, but it strikes me as the most likely super-specific scenario.
In my mind it comes down to if Kessler can handle the championship setting in his first time out. Nuguse, teare, and hocker have all shown they can, so he'll have to race like he belongs to beat them.
Yeah I'm really surprised so many are picking kessler. He had the one huge High School time and then really had a bit of a disappointing year last year [ not horrible but just considering the expectations]. This year through the winter he was really up and down. Now this spring he has certainly shown some consistency but.... we have no idea how he will do with rounds and Championship racing against elites.
I feel there are too many question marks to pick him. I do not think he will be top three but will not be disappointed to be wrong.
Kessler was only disappointing last year because he had an injury that forced him to take 4 weeks around Mar/April.
Once he regained fitness, he did well.
Besides, Nuguse got spanked at USAs last year and Hocker was also terrible if we’re reliving 2022.
If you asked me who I would most like to see make this team, setting aside all odds and ability, I'd probably say I wish Engels could make it and have at least one more great go at worlds in his prime. You are never guaranteed another year and something about Engels just makes me want to root for him. I guess we'll see.
Love to see him make it. But also want Nuguse, Hocker, and Kessler to make it.
Heats are out. 12 runners per heat. Top 3 each heat and the next 3 fastest time qualifiers are through to the 12-person final. I'm not including everyone in the list below:
Heat 1:
Joe Waskom, Yared Nuguse, Josh Thompson, Matthew Centrowitz, Nathan Green, John Gregorek, John Reniewicki, Kasey Knevelbaard
Heat 2:
Casey Comber, Isaac Basten, Sam Prakel, Christian Noble, Eric Holt, Craig Engels, Hobbs Kessler
Heat 3:
Jack Yearian, Vincent Ciattei, Cooper Teare, Matt Wisner, Henry Wynne, Cole Hocker, Drew Hunter.
I wouldn't be shocked if 2 or 3 of the little q's come from Heat 3 with the way these heats seem to be set up. There's a real risk of some really good runners not making the final out of Heat 1.
My picks: Yared, Cooper, and a surprise in third. Hoping for Holt, strange suspicion it might be Centro, and could easily be someone else with a big kick.
I'm not convinced Cole has the base this year with his injury issues, I could see him being a bit flat in the final. I'm not convinced Hobbs has improved his championship-style racing tactics enough to win either.
I wouldn't call 3:31 pretty tactical. That would be by far the fastest winning time in US Champs history and would essentially be a time trial for everyone but Nuguse.
Haha, yep. The hyperbole can get going pretty hot around championship time.
Teare with the early work to string it out. Nuguse takes over to keep it honest. Hocker goes too early, can't overtake Nuguse, and gets swallowed up by Teare and Kessler in the last 100.
Context. Hocker did that off of like 5 weeks of training coming back from injury. He is the most gifted runner in this field, an additional 6 weeks of training since that race will be huge.
Hobbs is without a doubt the most precociously talented.
Nuguse just ran a time Hocker may never reach.
Hocker is average level giftedness.
"Hocker is average level giftedness."
__________________
Yeah, he's probably good for a sub 6:20 mile but not much faster.
I would love to see Kessler win but my predictions are 1st Nuguse 3:31.74, 2nd Hocker 3:32.26, 3rd Kessler 3:32.44. My feeling is it will be pretty tactical. Nuguse has the superior fitness over everyone at the moment so will win outright. Hocker has a super kick aIfnd will edge ahead of Kessler in the straight.
I wouldn't call 3:31 pretty tactical. That would be by far the fastest winning time in US Champs history and would essentially be a time trial for everyone but Nuguse.
If the tactics are to go out blazing, 3:31 could be very tactical. Even-splitting 3:31 could be very tactical as well, if those are the tactics. 3:31 could win, but everyone else could run a lot slower - that would also be very tactical. We might see some with very different tactics. A couple runners might both run a 3:31-3:33, but have very different positioning tactics. I'd also call that pretty tactical.
Yeah I'm really surprised so many are picking kessler. He had the one huge High School time and then really had a bit of a disappointing year last year [ not horrible but just considering the expectations]. This year through the winter he was really up and down. Now this spring he has certainly shown some consistency but.... we have no idea how he will do with rounds and Championship racing against elites.
I feel there are too many question marks to pick him. I do not think he will be top three but will not be disappointed to be wrong.
Kessler was only disappointing last year because he had an injury that forced him to take 4 weeks around Mar/April.
Once he regained fitness, he did well.
Besides, Nuguse got spanked at USAs last year and Hocker was also terrible if we’re reliving 2022.
He has also been inconsistent this year if you include the winter. Combining winter and spring he's had three very good races -the 332 the 1:45 and the 3K indoors. None of these were Championship type races.
He shows a ton of talent and like I said is being consistent at the right time this spring. Because of his age and inconsistency and somewhat infrequent racing the last 2 years his resume is simply quite thin to expect him to make the team. Now again he certainly could do it based on his talent and recent performances. I am not saying he is a long shot by any means. But if I was putting money down I personally wouldn't bet it on him. But yes Hocker's injuries and only recent return to form certainly opens the door for him for sure.
I'm just not 100% sold yet on what he will do in a tactical Championship style race.
Exactly, Kessler has done well in rabbited races but not in championship style races. Tactics and positioning play a huge part at nationals and so far he has not shown that he is good at them. Hocker and Teare are US champions so I am more confident of them making the team.
I don't see Green beating Teare, Nuguse, Kessler, Engels, or Prakel without the UW squad confidence/post NCAAs.
1. Teare
2. Nuguse
3. Centro
Winning time over 3:35 and that's the only reason Centro makes it (runs the least distance and kicks well). I think Nuguse is the fittest but makes his first tactical error this season and Teare takes advantage of it.
Someone actually chose Centro! 🤣 🤣 🤣
Centro probably won’t make the team in a 3:34 race. But, if it’s 3:37+, he’s could still win it.
Sounds silly to outright say he will win but if the race goes slow he’s by far the best tactician.
How do you possibly know what his timing coming back from injury was?
Nuguse and Kessler are both just as gifted, in my view. Before Nuguse's 2 ARs I would have agreed on Nuguse, but now we're talking about a 3:29/7:28i guy. That's tough.
Kessler's HSR was faster than the NCAA record when it was set, and about 2 seconds faster equivalent than Webb's time, so that speaks for itself.
For Nuguse to win he's got to keep it honest from the start and push the pace from the gun.
Like open with 1:52 first 800m.
If he doesn't lead and stays in the pack he needs to go minimum 600m. Any closer to the finish and it's anyone's race.
Getting to the front and starting a controlled wind-up from 600 out is probably a good idea. But suggesting at first that he needs to open in ~1:52 is way off.
It’s weird how many people think Nuguse can only win in a super fast race, or that the burden will be on him to string out the field early. He could probably run a 3:51.xx mile off of 3:00 at 1209m…that seems like pretty good closing speed.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
For Nuguse to win he's got to keep it honest from the start and push the pace from the gun.
Like open with 1:52 first 800m.
If he doesn't lead and stays in the pack he needs to go minimum 600m. Any closer to the finish and it's anyone's race.
Getting to the front and starting a controlled wind-up from 600 out is probably a good idea. But suggesting at first that he needs to open in ~1:52 is way off.
It’s weird how many people think Nuguse can only win in a super fast race, or that the burden will be on him to string out the field early. He could probably run a 3:51.xx mile off of 3:00 at 1209m…that seems like pretty good closing speed.
Watch some of his past championships. He's getting out kicked over and over.
It's risky when you're leaving the field there with you. One of these other NPC'S gets some confidence, gets hungry, makes a move and some other guys fall/stumble.
It's also the story of most slow/tactical championships dating back to the 1900s.
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