Maybe this topic will be on a separate thread…but will he set another 1500m PB?
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Newbury park fan infiltration wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Haha 10% chance
1%>
Do you think he even advances in the rounds?
Assuming he’s actually running USAs? No, I wouldn’t expect him to make the final, and there’s a big difference between making the final and making the team. In arguably his best race yet he got pipped by Conner Mantz and blown away by Matt Wisner. He’s currently #24 U.S. this season. Give it a few years.
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
GF> wrote:
Lukas was not "out on his own"; he had a personal pacer (Stephen Haas) who deliberately ran splits off of the main race until the final lap.
Does anyone actually watch track here?
No, I guess you must be the only one.
You’re mistaken/misleading in your description of the setup. Haas and Verzbicas were hanging right on the back of the single file elite field through 2k, and Haas dropped with just under 800 to go (1 lap later) so it’s not like Verzbicas was escorted to the finish or anything. That’s still almost 800m of being on his own watching the leaders get further away, versus battling for the win until the final strides like we’ve seen recently.
Lol, I'm the mistaken/misleading one? I'll admit (something that you're incapable of doing) that I thought Haas lasted a little longer, but you said:
He finished last by 8 seconds (in a race where Kipchoge was 6th), completely overmatched and out on his own to stay focused on running as fast as possible.Seems like failing to even mention the "setup" is a bigger oversight when describing the race.
Also, for those interested here's a better video + LRC's recap:
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.60 -
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Newbury park fan infiltration wrote:
Do you think he even advances in the rounds?
Assuming he’s actually running USAs? No, I wouldn’t expect him to make the final, and there’s a big difference between making the final and making the team. In arguably his best race yet he got pipped by Conner Mantz and blown away by Matt Wisner. He’s currently #24 U.S. this season. Give it a few years.
He said he wants to run USAs. Probably not all of those 24 enter.
The field size is 36. He needs to get info submitted:
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GF> wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
No, I guess you must be the only one.
You’re mistaken/misleading in your description of the setup. Haas and Verzbicas were hanging right on the back of the single file elite field through 2k, and Haas dropped with just under 800 to go (1 lap later) so it’s not like Verzbicas was escorted to the finish or anything. That’s still almost 800m of being on his own watching the leaders get further away, versus battling for the win until the final strides like we’ve seen recently.
Lol, I'm the mistaken/misleading one? I'll admit (something that you're incapable of doing) that I thought Haas lasted a little longer, but you said:
He finished last by 8 seconds (in a race where Kipchoge was 6th), completely overmatched and out on his own to stay focused on running as fast as possible.Seems like failing to even mention the "setup" is a bigger oversight when describing the race.
Also, for those interested here's a better video + LRC's recap:
No you’re right, I had just looked up the results and forgotten about any extra pacing help these 12 years later. It does make a small difference, but only on the 6th lap.
Will you admit you were wrong about me being unable to admit when I’m wrong?
The point I was trying to make still has validity to me: I don’t think that race was the ideal situation to run his fastest time, and in fact there’s something to be said for running for the win and being pushed all the way to the line.
So allow me to formally correct my statement: He finished last by 8 seconds (in a race where Kipchoge was 6th), completely overmatched and out on his own the last two laps to stay focused on running as fast as possible.
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
freekiprop wrote:
Lukas went through a mile in 4:12 and was all but alone for the last 3 laps. I get that the Brooks race wasn't ideal pacing, but I hardly doubt a pro race would help them shave off 5 seconds because most likely it will also be not ideal pacing.
I don’t know why I was posting as Frank Pentangeli earlier, sorry guys.
I do think there are a few kids who have been capable of faster than 8:29.46, but the fact that nobody’s come within 3.5 seconds at either 2 mile or 3200 indicates it’s not especially weak. World Athletics puts it as equal to 3:58.13, 7:52.95 (3k), and 13:31.31. And it’s not surprising that there would be more high school kids capable of 3:58.1 than the marks at the longer distances.
freekiprop is right, the 2011 Pre Classic hardly seems like it was the ideal scenario for Verzbicas to run his fastest time. He finished last by 8 seconds (in a race where Kipchoge was 6th), completely overmatched and out on his own to stay focused on running as fast as possible. It’s very hard to guess who would win in a 2 mile between Verzbicas, Sahlman, Birnbaum and a number of others.
But Verzbicas won back-to-back Footlocker titles, never seriously challenged, the first when he was 16. After the second he doubled up and won NXN. He won the 5k/2 mile/mile triple at New Balance Indoors, clocking 8:40 in the 2 mile. When he broke 4 he was the 5th U.S. high schooler to do so and the first in a decade; he won a high school only race in the rain, putting 25 meters on Cheserek. Nobody had any doubts as to who was the top distance runner of the 2011 grad class. He had a better high school career than Birnbaum, and by a good margin.
“Colin Sahlman would have been wrecked by Birnbaum this track season.” Come on, it’s fine if you think Birnbaum would have beaten him, but you act like it’s no contest when every indication is it would have been very close and pushed both to their limits. Sahlman ran 1:48.07/3:56.24/8:33.32 (3200)—that’s legit!
I feel like I'm always the guy saying Verzbicas or Webb was the best overall or could come the closest to replicating most marks of the other runners.
Verzbicas has the best overall modern resume in my opinion not counting people who didn't race at a time of the well established over seas dominance.
-He won the indoor triple
-Two different type XC doubles.
FL twice / FL&NXN
-Sub 4 in the rain probably similar/worse conditions to the 2023 dream mile before pace lights, better shoes
-And no one is close to his 2 mile
Only one I see coming close to the 8:29 in those conditions is webb. Might even say he'd beat the time. But I can't see him winning xc and I also can't see Lukas running 3:53 tho.
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My mistake. Makes him even more impressive.
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trailrunner86 wrote:
Most of this comes down to understanding how talented a runner is. The truth is the runners you mention don't compare and would lose badly to the guys listed below. Especially Colin Sahlman.
-Edward Cheserek would never go all out unless someone pushed him, but he is a lot better than his times says he was (he ended up winning ncaa his freshman year). The only time he was pushed was his junior year footlocker he and Futsum could have ran low 14:40s at footlocker if it wasn't such a tactical race.
-German Fernandez would run crazy times solo. Running 4:00 then 8:35 two hours later by yourself in fresno winds and heat. German ran 14:25 at woodward park by himself. German was only 40s behind the top kenyan runners at U20 world xc championships (Leo Young was 1:30s behind top kenyan in a less competitive field)
- Simeon ran 8:34 two mile (55 second last lap) then runs 3:37 1500 2 days later, then wins a all-caliber field 2 days later 4:02 (55 second last lap). This just screams that he can run so much faster than these times. He continues to beat guys who have broken 4 minutes, and 8:35 for the 3200.
-Chris Derrick was also 45s behind top kenyan runners at U20 world xc champinoships (far more impressive performance). He soloed a 13:55 at Arcadia by himself (before super shoes).
Chris Solinksy / Adam Goucher - 14:40 at footlocker.
Your second point is so dumb.
Leo ran 14:25 at woodward park in early October, German ran 14:24.
And you really believe German Fernandez would put 50 seconds on Leo Young at world XC ?I think Leo is one of the most underrated XC runners, just because he blew up at nationals (and a bit at state going for the record).
He has the second fastest time at Woodward Park, just one second behind German Fernandez, and ahead of Colin Sahlman, Nico Young, Lex Young and Aaron Sahlman who are all All-timers.
He has the second fastest ever 5k XC and the fastest ever 3 miles (both as a junior).
He has an u20 US title, closing in 2:45 and literally destroying a field of college runners, putting 30 seconds on the next highschooler Kole Mathison, who literally won Footlocker by more than 10 seconds. The top true freshman at NCAA XC Marco Langon was also in the race.
Leo then placed 16th at worlds XC for first non african (and we know a lot of the time we can’t be sure they’re really u20s).
Him and Lex were beating up on Aaron all season, Leo was 27 seconds ahead of him at Clovis, and look at what Aaron did to the deepest field of all time at NXN, beating the course record in his way.
And lol to the guy talking about Derrick’s 13:55 « pre super shoes » on the track, Leo ran 14:05 in XC, he could run 13:55 on the track in flats.
Yeah he doesn’t have the legacy someone like Nico has, because he didn’t finish his senior season with a big win at HS nationals, but I’m a 100% confident that Leo would win in a head to head, and I’m sure Nico would agree. The only guys I’d put above him in XC without thinking twice are Ritz and German Fernandez.
Yeah a lot of what I’m saying is theoretical, but that’s what most guys do here, and we’ll see if he proves me right at Stanford.
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WU20runner wrote:
trailrunner86 wrote:
Most of this comes down to understanding how talented a runner is. The truth is the runners you mention don't compare and would lose badly to the guys listed below. Especially Colin Sahlman.
-Edward Cheserek would never go all out unless someone pushed him, but he is a lot better than his times says he was (he ended up winning ncaa his freshman year). The only time he was pushed was his junior year footlocker he and Futsum could have ran low 14:40s at footlocker if it wasn't such a tactical race.
-German Fernandez would run crazy times solo. Running 4:00 then 8:35 two hours later by yourself in fresno winds and heat. German ran 14:25 at woodward park by himself. German was only 40s behind the top kenyan runners at U20 world xc championships (Leo Young was 1:30s behind top kenyan in a less competitive field)
- Simeon ran 8:34 two mile (55 second last lap) then runs 3:37 1500 2 days later, then wins a all-caliber field 2 days later 4:02 (55 second last lap). This just screams that he can run so much faster than these times. He continues to beat guys who have broken 4 minutes, and 8:35 for the 3200.
-Chris Derrick was also 45s behind top kenyan runners at U20 world xc champinoships (far more impressive performance). He soloed a 13:55 at Arcadia by himself (before super shoes).
Chris Solinksy / Adam Goucher - 14:40 at footlocker.
Your second point is so dumb.
Leo ran 14:25 at woodward park in early October, German ran 14:24.
And you really believe German Fernandez would put 50 seconds on Leo Young at world XC ?I think Leo is one of the most underrated XC runners, just because he blew up at nationals (and a bit at state going for the record).
He has the second fastest time at Woodward Park, just one second behind German Fernandez, and ahead of Colin Sahlman, Nico Young, Lex Young and Aaron Sahlman who are all All-timers.
He has the second fastest ever 5k XC and the fastest ever 3 miles (both as a junior).
He has an u20 US title, closing in 2:45 and literally destroying a field of college runners, putting 30 seconds on the next highschooler Kole Mathison, who literally won Footlocker by more than 10 seconds. The top true freshman at NCAA XC Marco Langon was also in the race.
Leo then placed 16th at worlds XC for first non african (and we know a lot of the time we can’t be sure they’re really u20s).
Him and Lex were beating up on Aaron all season, Leo was 27 seconds ahead of him at Clovis, and look at what Aaron did to the deepest field of all time at NXN, beating the course record in his way.
And lol to the guy talking about Derrick’s 13:55 « pre super shoes » on the track, Leo ran 14:05 in XC, he could run 13:55 on the track in flats.
Yeah he doesn’t have the legacy someone like Nico has, because he didn’t finish his senior season with a big win at HS nationals, but I’m a 100% confident that Leo would win in a head to head, and I’m sure Nico would agree. The only guys I’d put above him in XC without thinking twice are Ritz and German Fernandez.
Yeah a lot of what I’m saying is theoretical, but that’s what most guys do here, and we’ll see if he proves me right at Stanford.
go look at the results german fernandez U20 championships 2009 and Leo young U20 championships 2023. The year Leo competed was far less competitive a bunch of teams didn't race. German raced in a year that was 2x more competitive and he was much closer to the leaders by 45 seconds. So was Chris Derrick.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.211 -
I swear everyone here has recency bias as hell.
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trailrunner86 wrote:
go look at the results german fernandez U20 championships 2009 and Leo young U20 championships 2023. The year Leo competed was far less competitive a bunch of teams didn't race. German raced in a year that was 2x more competitive and he was much closer to the leaders by 45 seconds. So was Chris Derrick.
German was a college frosh in 2009. In 2008, as a high school senior, he was was 1:37 behind the winner.
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nope he was in high school. 2008 was his senior xc season the race took place on March 2009. Similar to how Leo Young's xc season was 2022 but World U20 was early 2023. German was faster than Leo Young when pushed by Kenyan competitors by 40-50+ seconds
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your downvoting doesn't change the results... 2009 world xc U20 championships
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and so was Chris derrick. However, Leo was definitely faster than derrick during track
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World Cross wrote:
trailrunner86 wrote:
go look at the results german fernandez U20 championships 2009 and Leo young U20 championships 2023. The year Leo competed was far less competitive a bunch of teams didn't race. German raced in a year that was 2x more competitive and he was much closer to the leaders by 45 seconds. So was Chris Derrick.
German was a college frosh in 2009. In 2008, as a high school senior, he was was 1:37 behind the winner.
And to quote the poster you're responding to, "So was Chris Derrick."
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trailrunner86 wrote:
nope he was in high school. 2008 was his senior xc season the race took place on March 2009. Similar to how Leo Young's xc season was 2022 but World U20 was early 2023. German was faster than Leo Young when pushed by Kenyan competitors by 40-50+ seconds
German Fernandez graduated high school in 2008
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trailrunner86 wrote:
nope he was in high school. 2008 was his senior xc season the race took place on March 2009. Similar to how Leo Young's xc season was 2022 but World U20 was early 2023. German was faster than Leo Young when pushed by Kenyan competitors by 40-50+ seconds
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trailrunner86 wrote:
nope he was in high school. 2008 was his senior xc season the race took place on March 2009. Similar to how Leo Young's xc season was 2022 but World U20 was early 2023. German was faster than Leo Young when pushed by Kenyan competitors by 40-50+ seconds
It's great when people double down when they're wrong.
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Half the OP’s list is from the last 3 years and some people still don’t think the shoes make a difference.
Sahlman and Birnbaum had very similar senior track seasons, but I think you have to put Sahlman over him given his cross country credentials. That said, Lukas V should be higher than both of them.
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trailrunner86 wrote:
WU20runner wrote:
Your second point is so dumb.
Leo ran 14:25 at woodward park in early October, German ran 14:24.
And you really believe German Fernandez would put 50 seconds on Leo Young at world XC ?I think Leo is one of the most underrated XC runners, just because he blew up at nationals (and a bit at state going for the record).
He has the second fastest time at Woodward Park, just one second behind German Fernandez, and ahead of Colin Sahlman, Nico Young, Lex Young and Aaron Sahlman who are all All-timers.
He has the second fastest ever 5k XC and the fastest ever 3 miles (both as a junior).
He has an u20 US title, closing in 2:45 and literally destroying a field of college runners, putting 30 seconds on the next highschooler Kole Mathison, who literally won Footlocker by more than 10 seconds. The top true freshman at NCAA XC Marco Langon was also in the race.
Leo then placed 16th at worlds XC for first non african (and we know a lot of the time we can’t be sure they’re really u20s).
Him and Lex were beating up on Aaron all season, Leo was 27 seconds ahead of him at Clovis, and look at what Aaron did to the deepest field of all time at NXN, beating the course record in his way.
And lol to the guy talking about Derrick’s 13:55 « pre super shoes » on the track, Leo ran 14:05 in XC, he could run 13:55 on the track in flats.
Yeah he doesn’t have the legacy someone like Nico has, because he didn’t finish his senior season with a big win at HS nationals, but I’m a 100% confident that Leo would win in a head to head, and I’m sure Nico would agree. The only guys I’d put above him in XC without thinking twice are Ritz and German Fernandez.
Yeah a lot of what I’m saying is theoretical, but that’s what most guys do here, and we’ll see if he proves me right at Stanford.
go look at the results german fernandez U20 championships 2009 and Leo young U20 championships 2023. The year Leo competed was far less competitive a bunch of teams didn't race. German raced in a year that was 2x more competitive and he was much closer to the leaders by 45 seconds. So was Chris Derrick.
But why are you comparing a college athlete and a high school athlete ?
German Fernandez won NCAA 1500m in 2009, no one doubts 2009 German was way better than Leo.
However, as a senior in high school, in 2008, German finished 25th at world XC 1:37 behind the leader, and 11 seconds behind the first non African. As a high school senior, Leo finished 16th 1:34 behind the winner and first non African.
I’d still put German ahead of him in XC but I wouldn’t use world xc to prove your point, quite the opposite.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.140
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