Correction: June 30, Lausanne, 5000. Prior to that, two 1500 races. If he can get down to 3:33.00-3:34.00, he’ll be ready for 12:52-12:56, I think. Even 3:36.00 ok.
Go Andreas Almgren - Sverige Beast, with modest, retiring disposition.
Give him a couple of years and he may be a Jakob contender in several events!
Are you Swedish?
So you think 27 year old Almgren has more room for improvement that 22 year old Jakob?
By the way: Which events are thinking about? Jakob is more than 10 seconds faster than Andreas in both the 1500m, the 3000m and the 5000m.
My last answer was somewhat too brief; there’s a lot more to say:
1. I regard you as Jakob’s most fiercely defender at this forum. But Jakob doesn’t need to be defended -his whole project speaks for itself…. And he himself knows a lot of his own weaknesses, and even discuss some of them quite straightforward… Well, we are “all” quite obsessed with Jakob, and I really hope he will become “the greatest of all times”, but when I read your posts I can’t help the temptation to rename your username “Obsessive observer” (no offense -I’m just too fond of word plays, like Henrik Ingebrigtsen, to let it go by)…
2. Jakob doesn’t regard his own talent as so much of a deal, and I somewhat agree (his brother Filip, and maybe even Henrik could have been real contenders without illness and injuries). But Andreas Almgren is on a whole another level; I’m puzzled you didn’t get that when you checked his account on WA: His pb in the 100 (but especially 200m), 400 and 800m shout out about a talent and a speed Jakob (and maybe everybody else) only can dream about (being a 5000m runner)…
3. Talent is in a way so much more than only speed (but there are no indications Almgren are less talented than Jakob f.ex in the 5000m). -One can have a talent for the right training, and for the small important things, and to avoid crucial illness and injuries, and a strategic talent, and a psychological, and be lucky and have good people for support…
4. I don’t know who will be the best of Andreas and Jakob when everything is said and done, but we do of course know who has the lead… But I don’t think the age difference is an important factor here…
5. Jakob can get an fatal injury tomorrow, and become an “also ran” (not among the 10 greatest), and then forgotten (well not by you and me!)
6. I don’t know enough about Almgren’s background, but his injury problems are a red flag. Predictions are of course only theoretical: He can become the Goat, or an inferior contender (sometimes sniffing on medals) or only a liitle better than his current 5000m pb, or a has run (because of injuries)…
7. Almgren will (IMO) be a star in more than one event -but beating Jakob may be a little too much of a stretch… But we live in interesting times -athletics wise..! (I think Jakob with a little luck can become the goat -Almgren must have even greater luck to achieve the same, but I see more potential in him than no other athlete ever..) But I am of course extremely impressed by Jakob’s long term project (as I cross my fingers for Andreas too)…
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
Coach J.S. - Does Andreas Almgren use a hybrid training system incorporating part of the Dancan system? Can you provide a sample of his training at different parts of the year? Tak!
His training is not like my linear Dancan system method. It's more like a phase system where he starts in the autumn to build a big base of aerob running and threshold training away from the track often on gravel roads during the winter and then speed up the training with faster work in the spring when the track season closing up. A typical Lydiard approach......Tack! 🧙♂️🖐🇸🇪
Very high mileage for a 5000 runner. Highest week last winter was 210 km. More typical during base is 170-180.
2. Jakob doesn’t regard his own talent as so much of a deal, and I somewhat agree (his brother Filip, and maybe even Henrik could have been real contenders without illness and injuries). But Andreas Almgren is on a whole another level; I’m puzzled you didn’t get that when you checked his account on WA: His pb in the 100 (but especially 200m), 400 and 800m shout out about a talent and a speed Jakob (and maybe everybody else) only can dream about (being a 5000m runner)…
You are way overestimating Almgren's "talent" based on him focusing on shorter events as a younger athlete who was pegged as an 400/800m runner. He's more of a unique case as few future 5,000m runners would be running the 200-800 all the way to age 20. Certainly the speed is impressive, but it's pretty impossible to compare because nearly every distance guy in the field against him was running 1500-5K already at age 16. To say he has more talent than Jakob because he ran 22.8/48.3 at age 16 without acknowledging that Jakob ran a far more world-class 3:56 for a mile at age 16 is kinda crazy. Certainly Almgren is one of the most versatile runners we've seen on the circuit, but don't confuse versatility with talent. He is more like a Lopez Lomong than a Jakob.
2. Jakob doesn’t regard his own talent as so much of a deal, and I somewhat agree (his brother Filip, and maybe even Henrik could have been real contenders without illness and injuries). But Andreas Almgren is on a whole another level; I’m puzzled you didn’t get that when you checked his account on WA: His pb in the 100 (but especially 200m), 400 and 800m shout out about a talent and a speed Jakob (and maybe everybody else) only can dream about (being a 5000m runner)…
You are way overestimating Almgren's "talent" based on him focusing on shorter events as a younger athlete who was pegged as an 400/800m runner. He's more of a unique case as few future 5,000m runners would be running the 200-800 all the way to age 20. Certainly the speed is impressive, but it's pretty impossible to compare because nearly every distance guy in the field against him was running 1500-5K already at age 16. To say he has more talent than Jakob because he ran 22.8/48.3 at age 16 without acknowledging that Jakob ran a far more world-class 3:56 for a mile at age 16 is kinda crazy. Certainly Almgren is one of the most versatile runners we've seen on the circuit, but don't confuse versatility with talent. He is more like a Lopez Lomong than a Jakob.
When I first read your post my reaction was this: Your reasoning seems reasonable, and mine a little yeah crazy… But I like crazy, cause our world seems to be even more crazy than reasonable. Saying that I must add that crazy without logic is just chaotic and untruthful; not the kind of crazy I had in mind…
The problem with your “reasonable” is that there’s some lack of logic. F.ex you present a 16 year old’s pbs in the 100/200/400m as a primary result of prioritised sprint work outs, not at all emphasising that he was only 16 years old. -Do you think Jakob I. could have been even in the neighbourhood of that kind of pbs with the same priorities at the same age!?
There’s something totally crazy regarding Almgren’s pb profile -inconsistent training / injuries or illness must have been a frequent thing -here’s the pbs I think he should have had with “Ingebrigtsen-training” from the get go: 11.4 -22.7 -46.8 -1.42.8 -3.26.6 - 12.46 -27.15…
I think Almgren’s pbs in the 100/200m are key -they tell us a lot of inborn speed (that “never” will cease). His 400m pb is relatively weak (injuries), and his 800m pb even more so. And 1500 / 3000m pbs are a joke -let’s see what 1500m at Bislett brings….
I don’t think Andreas is a Lopez Lomong kind of runner (I think the first is way faster than the latter, so 27.15 is maybe to generous for Almgren), but more of a El Guerrouj type of guy… And to compare Andreas and Jakob talent wise is kind of idiotic (must admit), but I think Ingebrigtsen is totally right in his “consistency is far more important than talent”. In that way Jakob is of course a huge talent, but comparing his 3,56 (in one of his primary events) as 16 years old with Andreas’s 200m pb (not primary event, and also a far younger 16 year old in months) is not fair…
People say you can’t be speedy and enduring at the same training and in the same season. But look at Wightman 2022…
As I said in an earlier post: Jakob is on his path to greatness. -Andreas seems to have something great on too, but he needs luck and consistency. I’m crossing my fingers…
Give him a couple of years and he may be a Jakob contender in several events!
Are you Swedish?
So you think 27 year old Almgren has more room for improvement that 22 year old Jakob?
By the way: Which events are thinking about? Jakob is more than 10 seconds faster than Andreas in both the 1500m, the 3000m and the 5000m.
Numbers can be kind of a strange thing: This season 22 year old Jakob has improved 0.37 sec in the 1500m, and 27 (now 28) year old Andreas 6.99 sec! And yes -1500m is primarily the distance I’m thinking of…
Do I really think old Almgren will beat young Ingebrigtsen in the 1500m? Of course not! But could he -YES! It puzzles me that Andreas only ran 3.32.00 in Oslo. But there’s so much I don’t know or understand about his progression. And I have to bring Narve Gilje Nordås into the discussion -who saw him coming from 3.36 to 3.29 -so why not Almgren. Anyways -both being so much closer to Jakob now: A few years more with consistency, and maybe both can breathe up his neck, if not beat him…Real exciting anyhow!
Falling was the best thing that could have happened to him - it took him from 10th place at the bell to the win, 3rd at worst, and a 9+ second PR.
Come on -your post is a reminder of not being too sure. But not seeing all the signs of a man on his way to a huge pr is just being to salty…!
He was on the way to lowering his PR - anywhere from 12:54 to 12:59 is perfectly conceivable with the most likely result being right in the middle. But I was responding to a guy saying he would have closed faster than anyone to move from 10th to challenging Katir and Kejelcha for the win. That’s an enormous stretch, and yesterday’s results for Katir, Kejelcha and Almgren, while good outings for all three, should further indicate how unlikely it is that Almgren was en route to 12:52 that day. Not salty, just realistic.