Nuguse has everything you need to challenge Jakob, a mile time within a second, a 25.94 closing 200m in that race, which is probably a bit faster than Jakob has ever managed, a 1:46 800m, and a 7:28 3k. But without knowing just what kind of race sharpness they are in right now, it's hard to predict. I would think that Nuguse would have to knock on the door a few times before breaking on through, so I give him a better shot later on, but he was incredibly sharp indoors.
Nuguse already got an outdoor race in, while Jakob hasn’t raced since European Indoors. I don’t expect a sub 3:30 first race of the season for Jakob which in my eyes would favor Nuguse.
Such a forced debate by you Americans. Jakob is gonna lap this goose
Finally a voice of reason. The fanboyism emanating from the coffee club podcast is a bit off putting, but yo be expected. Americans are always looking for the next shiny trinket to obsess over.
I’m predicting that if he were to win there would be a Yared MF Nuguse thread up within 2.5 seconds of the race ending. And there will be at least 75% of American let’s run posters make a mess in the front of their Spider-Man undies.
Did he actually call him "Jingy"? What have we done...
Yes, they ALWAYS call him “Jingy.”
I'm pretty sure Olli was the first one to dub him Jingy over a year ago at the beginning of the Coffee Club Pod. I think LetsRun started co-opting the nickname because it's catchy and more efficient to type.
I mean this logic has been around forever and makes seems logical on the surface. If an athlete is in "x" shape indoors it's just assumed they will be in shape "x +++" come outdoors and in the past I would say in 90% of cases that was true.
I think though with more and more impetus being put on indoors (and it really started with covid where opportunities to compete were just so limited that the hunger to run in any competition be it indoors or out was the same), it is hard to apply this logic anymore. We are also starting to really recognize athletes that race really well coming straight off base work and with product (mega cushioned spikes that perform the same way the old mid-season, zero cushioned "race day" spikes do) that allows a much easier transition from 100 mile weeks and hill work into a race. A lot of these athletes now are much closer to their peaks indoors than the past and the longer traditional transition to summer racing on the track (typically 6 weeks) tends to hurt them more than help them.
I'm not saying Nuguse is this guy just yet, but one thing we know is that he has a history of injury and so who really knows. Is it possible he never even approaches 3.47.38 outdoors? Absolutely - not many guys in history ever ran that fast outdoors (only 12 have ever). I'd love to sit here and assume that 3.47 low indoors naturally translates to 3.45.xx outdoors but I don't think so anymore.
I think he's got a chance to win, I just don't think he will. J.I is the best MD talent on the planet right now for a reason.
The counterpoint is that while the times Nuguse ran were solid (3:47/7:28), it was really more the fitness displayed by how he ran them that popped. He made beating Katir look easy despite Katir being in 7:24 shape (and at home). He closed his 3:47 with a sub-26 last lap and somewhat suboptimal pacing for a fast mile (slow~ 59.3 3rd quarter). He led the final 6 laps of a 7:28 3,000 and picked up the pace. He then sandbagged that season-opening 800m for a nice PB. So, it seems he's relatively sharp.
This isn't the same example, but it's one worth noting. Before Kip Keino, it would've been easy to say oh Abel Kipsang is going to defeat Reynold Cheruiyot in a romp. His PB's 3:29.5, Reynold's is 3:33.5. He won numerous Diamond Leagues/Continental Tour Golds etc. But Reynold of course ran 3:33.5 completely solo at altitude, he ran a 13:04 road 5K, got 2nd in World Junior XC. Clearly he was on a roll and better than a PB. Winning the race probably also meant more to him than Kipsang if we're being honest. Jakob will obviously want to win this one, but this is Nuguse's first Diamond League and he's got all the momentum in the world.
I understand what you are saying but it's not really a counterpoint. Of course he was fit when he ran 3.47 and 7.28 but I don't know if how he ran those races gives us any indication if, for example, he's just a guy that races better without a ton of specific track work. If anything, closing out any race in under 26 seconds would suggest he was pretty sharp back in what, Feb? I mean if not is he closing out a 3.45 mile in under 25 seconds in August?
Nuguse was on a role - 3 months ago. 1.46.30 is a pretty nice outdoor opening effort but I would expect this from a 3.47 miler. I think he is going to run well in Rabat - my point was purely we shouldn't just look at 7.28/3.47 from Feb and put unfair expectations on him to go and bust Ingebrigtsen because it's hard to know what "indoor form" means anymore. Great thing is we are going to find out in 6 days time!
The counterpoint is that while the times Nuguse ran were solid (3:47/7:28), it was really more the fitness displayed by how he ran them that popped. He made beating Katir look easy despite Katir being in 7:24 shape (and at home). He closed his 3:47 with a sub-26 last lap and somewhat suboptimal pacing for a fast mile (slow~ 59.3 3rd quarter). He led the final 6 laps of a 7:28 3,000 and picked up the pace. He then sandbagged that season-opening 800m for a nice PB. So, it seems he's relatively sharp.
This isn't the same example, but it's one worth noting. Before Kip Keino, it would've been easy to say oh Abel Kipsang is going to defeat Reynold Cheruiyot in a romp. His PB's 3:29.5, Reynold's is 3:33.5. He won numerous Diamond Leagues/Continental Tour Golds etc. But Reynold of course ran 3:33.5 completely solo at altitude, he ran a 13:04 road 5K, got 2nd in World Junior XC. Clearly he was on a roll and better than a PB. Winning the race probably also meant more to him than Kipsang if we're being honest. Jakob will obviously want to win this one, but this is Nuguse's first Diamond League and he's got all the momentum in the world.
I understand what you are saying but it's not really a counterpoint. Of course he was fit when he ran 3.47 and 7.28 but I don't know if how he ran those races gives us any indication if, for example, he's just a guy that races better without a ton of specific track work. If anything, closing out any race in under 26 seconds would suggest he was pretty sharp back in what, Feb? I mean if not is he closing out a 3.45 mile in under 25 seconds in August?
Nuguse was on a role - 3 months ago. 1.46.30 is a pretty nice outdoor opening effort but I would expect this from a 3.47 miler. I think he is going to run well in Rabat - my point was purely we shouldn't just look at 7.28/3.47 from Feb and put unfair expectations on him to go and bust Ingebrigtsen because it's hard to know what "indoor form" means anymore. Great thing is we are going to find out in 6 days time!
Nuguse probably going to be in similar form to winter. that is not something he would have built on for this point of the year, unless he is content to flame out at worlds. Jakob will be better than he was in winter. we know he is capable of running around 3:30 right off of training without a race yet.
Maybe I'm being cynical or maybe the incessant coffee club Yared propaganda has burned me out but I don't really see Yared in the same league as Jakob and I'll have to see it to believe it. I view Yared the same way I view Katir or Hoare, incredible athletes but don't ever think "oh man he can take down Jakob in a DL 1500m." Jakob hasn't lost a DL 1500m since 2021 when he was 3rd at Monaco (after being sick in the run up) then lost the DL final to prime Cheruiyot post Olympic win.
None of the current crop of 1500 runners have beaten Jakob in a DL apart from Katir (in Monaco) & Cheruiyot (who I think is at the tail end of his prime).
Ingebrigtsen obviously has the hardware and has consistently done it on the biggest stages, so he deserves to be the favorite. Nuguse has never even run a Diamond League, let alone won one.
But indoors, Nuguse was clearly on a completely different level than his last few years. The recipe for beating Ingebrigtsen, as Wightman showed last year, is that you have to be strong enough to hold onto him and still have something left to kick off a fast pace. That's exactly what Nuguse showed at Millrose. If he's still in that sort of shape, I think he's got a chance to win.
I’m predicting that if he were to win there would be a Yared MF Nuguse thread up within 2.5 seconds of the race ending. And there will be at least 75% of American let’s run posters make a mess in the front of their Spider-Man undies.
I’m predicting that if he were to win there would be a Yared MF Nuguse thread up within 2.5 seconds of the race ending. And there will be at least 75% of American let’s run posters make a mess in the front of their Spider-Man undies.
I understand what you are saying but it's not really a counterpoint. Of course he was fit when he ran 3.47 and 7.28 but I don't know if how he ran those races gives us any indication if, for example, he's just a guy that races better without a ton of specific track work. If anything, closing out any race in under 26 seconds would suggest he was pretty sharp back in what, Feb? I mean if not is he closing out a 3.45 mile in under 25 seconds in August?
Nuguse was on a role - 3 months ago. 1.46.30 is a pretty nice outdoor opening effort but I would expect this from a 3.47 miler. I think he is going to run well in Rabat - my point was purely we shouldn't just look at 7.28/3.47 from Feb and put unfair expectations on him to go and bust Ingebrigtsen because it's hard to know what "indoor form" means anymore. Great thing is we are going to find out in 6 days time!
That’s fair. All I was saying is there’re different ways to run a 3:47. There’s racing and time trialing. After a fast 800, that Millrose mile turned into a proper race. To run 3:47 uncorking a huge field-destroying kick is something that separates Nuguse from say Adel Mechaal, Filip or Yomif Kejelcha who have run the same time/equivalents. Heck we’re all high on Neil Gourley, and he was barely in the same area code as Yared in that race. Gourley ran pretty close to Jakob at Euro indoors. Again Jakob will be better now, but Yared doesn’t have to be better than his indoors self but rather in about the same shape to pose challenges for anybody. There’re few runners who could crank out sub-3:29s all season long. This years Jakob faces tougher challenges it seems than last year. People also seem to forget that Jakob lost to Tim after the Olympic gold with the usual Achilles heel. He feels unbeatable at 5,000 in a slower race but I don’t feel the same way in the 1,500. Doesn’t look like Tim is injury-plagued still, Kipsang isn’t racing/traveling constantly, Kerr (who knows?), Katir is light years ahead of last year, Wightman a bit of a question mark, and Kipkorir Cheruiyot is a looming danger.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
I understand what you are saying but it's not really a counterpoint. Of course he was fit when he ran 3.47 and 7.28 but I don't know if how he ran those races gives us any indication if, for example, he's just a guy that races better without a ton of specific track work. If anything, closing out any race in under 26 seconds would suggest he was pretty sharp back in what, Feb? I mean if not is he closing out a 3.45 mile in under 25 seconds in August?
Nuguse was on a role - 3 months ago. 1.46.30 is a pretty nice outdoor opening effort but I would expect this from a 3.47 miler. I think he is going to run well in Rabat - my point was purely we shouldn't just look at 7.28/3.47 from Feb and put unfair expectations on him to go and bust Ingebrigtsen because it's hard to know what "indoor form" means anymore. Great thing is we are going to find out in 6 days time!
That’s fair. All I was saying is there’re different ways to run a 3:47. There’s racing and time trialing. After a fast 800, that Millrose mile turned into a proper race. To run 3:47 uncorking a huge field-destroying kick is something that separates Nuguse from say Adel Mechaal, Filip or Yomif Kejelcha who have run the same time/equivalents. Heck we’re all high on Neil Gourley, and he was barely in the same area code as Yared in that race. Gourley ran pretty close to Jakob at Euro indoors. Again Jakob will be better now, but Yared doesn’t have to be better than his indoors self but rather in about the same shape to pose challenges for anybody. There’re few runners who could crank out sub-3:29s all season long. This years Jakob faces tougher challenges it seems than last year. People also seem to forget that Jakob lost to Tim after the Olympic gold with the usual Achilles heel. He feels unbeatable at 5,000 in a slower race but I don’t feel the same way in the 1,500. Doesn’t look like Tim is injury-plagued still, Kipsang isn’t racing/traveling constantly, Kerr (who knows?), Katir is light years ahead of last year, Wightman a bit of a question mark, and Kipkorir Cheruiyot is a looming danger.
Jakob was the youngest finalist in the WC 1500m last year. Why would you think older guys are gaining ground on him? Shouldn’t it be the opposite?