Hate to say it but Tuohy will get smoked. She will struggle with mental aspect of not being in the lead pack and not contending for podium.
Since this post about to get a deluge of downvotes, I might as well add that I was hoping to see Valby in this race too.
No worries. Your opinion. I won’t be downvoting you myself.
I don’t agree with you, however. Some folks really hit hard on Tuohy’s performance at USATF Nationals last year, and I don’t understand why. She said it herself in interviews, she was “fan girling”, just so excited to be there, etc.
She learned from the experience and set a specific goal in mind: To close the final mile in a 5000m in 4:30. I’ve never known her to repeat a poor performance. She’s amazing at how she adapts to what she’s learned.
Hate to say it but Tuohy will get smoked. She will struggle with mental aspect of not being in the lead pack and not contending for podium.
Since this post about to get a deluge of downvotes, I might as well add that I was hoping to see Valby in this race too.
She’ll definitely be in the lead pack until the late stages of the race. It’ll probably be paced to 3k in 8:55-9:00 and then be a matter of how far the top women can take it under 15. Tuohy should be one of the sub-15 women if she has a good day.
She’s not gonna run the last mile in 4:30 though—nobody in this race will. It’s not reasonable to expect her to run 2+ miles at 5k PR pace and then run the last mile at 8:23 3k pace… If she stated a goal of being able to close in 4:30 after USAs last year, she probably meant that’s what she’ll need to be capable of to make teams in championship races (slower, tactical affairs).
Hate to say it but Tuohy will get smoked. She will struggle with mental aspect of not being in the lead pack and not contending for podium.
Since this post about to get a deluge of downvotes, I might as well add that I was hoping to see Valby in this race too.
She’ll definitely be in the lead pack until the late stages of the race. It’ll probably be paced to 3k in 8:55-9:00 and then be a matter of how far the top women can take it under 15. Tuohy should be one of the sub-15 women if she has a good day.
She’s not gonna run the last mile in 4:30 though—nobody in this race will. It’s not reasonable to expect her to run 2+ miles at 5k PR pace and then run the last mile at 8:23 3k pace… If she stated a goal of being able to close in 4:30 after USAs last year, she probably meant that’s what she’ll need to be capable of to make teams in championship races (slower, tactical affairs).
It’s certainly going to be an absolutely fun race to see.
I’ll be watching that last mile to see how many (if any) run the final mile in 4:30.
Hate to say it but Tuohy will get smoked. She will struggle with mental aspect of not being in the lead pack and not contending for podium.
Since this post about to get a deluge of downvotes, I might as well add that I was hoping to see Valby in this race too.
She’ll definitely be in the lead pack until the late stages of the race. It’ll probably be paced to 3k in 8:55-9:00 and then be a matter of how far the top women can take it under 15. Tuohy should be one of the sub-15 women if she has a good day.
She’s not gonna run the last mile in 4:30 though—nobody in this race will. It’s not reasonable to expect her to run 2+ miles at 5k PR pace and then run the last mile at 8:23 3k pace… If she stated a goal of being able to close in 4:30 after USAs last year, she probably meant that’s what she’ll need to be capable of to make teams in championship races (slower, tactical affairs).
Yeah i think people need to realize that when she said she wanted to be able to close in a 4:30, she was talking about if she was in another tactical 15:50/16:00 type race like last year. Genuinely zero chance she can close in 4:30 off of 15 flat pace.
She’ll definitely be in the lead pack until the late stages of the race. It’ll probably be paced to 3k in 8:55-9:00 and then be a matter of how far the top women can take it under 15. Tuohy should be one of the sub-15 women if she has a good day.
She’s not gonna run the last mile in 4:30 though—nobody in this race will. It’s not reasonable to expect her to run 2+ miles at 5k PR pace and then run the last mile at 8:23 3k pace… If she stated a goal of being able to close in 4:30 after USAs last year, she probably meant that’s what she’ll need to be capable of to make teams in championship races (slower, tactical affairs).
Yeah i think people need to realize that when she said she wanted to be able to close in a 4:30, she was talking about if she was in another tactical 15:50/16:00 type race like last year. Genuinely zero chance she can close in 4:30 off of 15 flat pace.
In the 7 years that Tuohy has continually grown and has come to national (and worldwide) prominence, have you ever known her to not do something she says she’s working towards?
She doesn’t specify at all what type of race she needs to close in 4:30. It’s just the 4:30 she knows she needs to close in to make the team, regardless of the pace. Close in 4:30.
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Yeah i think people need to realize that when she said she wanted to be able to close in a 4:30, she was talking about if she was in another tactical 15:50/16:00 type race like last year. Genuinely zero chance she can close in 4:30 off of 15 flat pace.
In the 7 years that Tuohy has continually grown and has come to national (and worldwide) prominence, have you ever known her to not do something she says she’s working towards?
She doesn’t specify at all what type of race she needs to close in 4:30. It’s just the 4:30 she knows she needs to close in to make the team, regardless of the pace. Close in 4:30.
Also she says “knowing I can do it for one is a step in the right direction”, indicative of knowing that she may have to run several of them that fast.
In the 7 years that Tuohy has continually grown and has come to national (and worldwide) prominence, have you ever known her to not do something she says she’s working towards?
She doesn’t specify at all what type of race she needs to close in 4:30. It’s just the 4:30 she knows she needs to close in to make the team, regardless of the pace. Close in 4:30.
Also she says “knowing I can do it for one is a step in the right direction”, indicative of knowing that she may have to run several of them that fast.
The US championships hasn't been won in under 15 flat since 2007, much less closed in 4:30 while doing so.
I'm sure you dont mean run multiple 4:30's in the same 5k, right?
Sure. And a few weeks back someone claimed she would not run well at Millrose and Dr. Sanders.
a lot of people claim a lot of things. But that wasn't me so im not sure how its relevant.
He’s essentially saying that just because someone says it won’t be done or can’t be done doesn’t necessarily mean it WON’T be done. Tuohy is a goal-setter and achieves her goals. I’ve enjoyed watching it happen time and time again over the years.
Just because a sub-15 hasn’t happened at the US Champs since 2007 doesn’t mean it isn’t going to happen this year. Tuohy is preparing for WHATEVER happens, with a 4:30 final mile close (and apparently training for scenarios in case she has to run even more of them than that).
I would have to think the pace will be 9:00 or faster thru 3000. Surely Henes and Orton-Morgan would hope to get to 14:50 or even faster
Well, with Henes’ PR being 14:52, 14:50 is certainly within reach, without a doubt.
With the professional racers, pacers and pacing lights it’s gonna be a blazing fast race.
Possible predictors for Tuohy based on t2 = t1 * (d2 / d1)1.06 (the Riegel formula) are:
14:31 under absolute perfect conditions (based on her 4:24 Mile NCAA record)
14:45 under absolute perfect conditions (based on her 8:35 3000m NCAA record)
She very well could win this race. I believe she’ll be top 3. I believe she’s going to run this psychologically as if it is the USATF National Championship, to completely practice exactly what she’s wanting to accomplish this summer. Nothing will be good enough for this race for her personally; based on her goals she’s shared in interviews, except top-3 and a World Championship qualifier. Just as if it were USATF Nationals.
I believe she will run with the front pack until 1 mile to go. Regardless of placement at that time. Then she’ll test her final mile ability (which is exactly what she’s specifically been working on).
I agree with FastTuohy that they’ll most likely go through 3000 in no slower than 9:00 (exactly 15:00 pace, or 4:49 to 4:50 mile pace). She’ll close in as close to 4:30 for the final mile that she can (based on what she’s stated her goal is to do this exact final mile speed as her goal), and run:
14:40.0
Obliterating the former NCAA record by over 27 seconds. EPIC
On 2/11/23, just after Tuohy set her NCAA record 3000m with her 8:35, I posted this:
For those that were wondering what this might mean for Tuohy in the 5k:
for reference Cranny's last 1600 was ~4:26 last year to win in 15:49
This is exactly the race Touhy refers to when she talks about 'closing in 4:30'.
To make a us team now you must be prepared to run 14:45 in an 'honest race', or close in 4:30 in a 16 minute 'jog and kick race'. Since the usatf now is almost always jog and kick, you better be prepared for it.
But it does not mean she will close in 4:30 off a fast pace. Look for 1k splits of 3,3,3,3,2:50 to get 14:50.
a lot of people claim a lot of things. But that wasn't me so im not sure how its relevant.
He’s essentially saying that just because someone says it won’t be done or can’t be done doesn’t necessarily mean it WON’T be done. Tuohy is a goal-setter and achieves her goals. I’ve enjoyed watching it happen time and time again over the years.
Just because a sub-15 hasn’t happened at the US Champs since 2007 doesn’t mean it isn’t going to happen this year. Tuohy is preparing for WHATEVER happens, with a 4:30 final mile close (and apparently training for scenarios in case she has to run even more of them than that).
We're just going to agree to disagree on this one. I see no reason to think she meant anything other than closing in 4:30 off of a pace like last years. She was within a second of the lead at 3400m. The qualifiers closed in 4:26, Tuohy closed in 4:45. It seems extremely likely to me that she is referring to this race when talking about needing to be able to close in 4:30.
I'm not trying to doubt her abilities or anything like that. Ive been one of the biggest Tuohy fans on this board im just trying to be realistic in what can be achieved in 2023. A) if Monson/Schweizer & crew are trying to double then the pace will definitely not be below 15 flat if they can help it.
Thinking she can close in 4:30 off of a 9 flat 3k pace (which was the only point i initially responded to) at this point in her trajectory is way too far imo. If she can run 14:40 by July it will be off of a perfectly paced race like Dr Sander & Millrose were.
He’s essentially saying that just because someone says it won’t be done or can’t be done doesn’t necessarily mean it WON’T be done. Tuohy is a goal-setter and achieves her goals. I’ve enjoyed watching it happen time and time again over the years.
Just because a sub-15 hasn’t happened at the US Champs since 2007 doesn’t mean it isn’t going to happen this year. Tuohy is preparing for WHATEVER happens, with a 4:30 final mile close (and apparently training for scenarios in case she has to run even more of them than that).
We're just going to agree to disagree on this one. I see no reason to think she meant anything other than closing in 4:30 off of a pace like last years. She was within a second of the lead at 3400m. The qualifiers closed in 4:26, Tuohy closed in 4:45. It seems extremely likely to me that she is referring to this race when talking about needing to be able to close in 4:30.
I'm not trying to doubt her abilities or anything like that. Ive been one of the biggest Tuohy fans on this board im just trying to be realistic in what can be achieved in 2023. A) if Monson/Schweizer & crew are trying to double then the pace will definitely not be below 15 flat if they can help it.
Thinking she can close in 4:30 off of a 9 flat 3k pace (which was the only point i initially responded to) at this point in her trajectory is way too far imo. If she can run 14:40 by July it will be off of a perfectly paced race like Dr Sander & Millrose were.
That’s what makes discussing it so much fun. Differing view points, differing reasoning.
I believe she’ll run 14:40 at this race. Off of a perfectly paced race. As you say. This is the exact scenario.
9:00 for 3,000 is now a essentially a brisk run for Tuohy. I don’t believe it’s going to be that big of a stretch to believe she can maintain that essential jog until 3,341 meters and then turn it on for her real race (if even within herself psychologically, this is the race), with 1,609 to go to close in 4:30.
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