What do some of the top coaches in the USA think of the ridiculous times? Is it just the shoes? Or is something else going on?

No, it’s not just the shoes.

Training is better than it ever has been. More science. More refinement. Massive acceleration in the access to this info. Massive acceleration of info being implemented with the youth.

It’s going to keep getting better, the rate of progress will plateau, some new doping method will break through, caught, catch up, level, new research, progress, repeat. Diminishing returns, but constant progress.

Shoes help tho

Somewhat tongue in cheek...in 1972 I qualified for the Olympic Trials in the marathon so for the next four years all the guys I raced with said, "If he can do it, I can too." And they did, frequently beating me in the process. So runners do these things because other runners do them opening the invitation. It is the nature of competitive inspiration. (I don't mean this is the only reason.)

Tom

In the next year you will see records drop even further as the AI computer creates training plans that are way better than any coach could come up with. I have seen a sample group of runners already on trajectories to crush some existing records.

I am very surprised that two other forms of technology rarely get mentioned in this discussion: the ipod/iphone and the GPS watch.

I'm not saying that they are nearly as important as supershoes, different training methods, etc. However, it's probably important to note that:

1. Solo running/remote running is not as boring as it used to be (for some) and it is much safer for younger people, especially women. I like running in silence more now that I'm in my 40s, but when I was 15 I have to admit that running by myself in the summer could be pretty tough to get motivated for because I just got bored. There were also parents at my high school that didn't want their daughters running by themselves anytime that wasn't in broad daylight with a bunch of people around. Obviously there will always be parents like that, and there are still dangers in running by oneself, but overall I think phones make people feel safer.

2. When I was in high school I really had no idea how fast or how far I ran. I would literally use a print map and a ruler to try to determine distances. This produced two effects: running much lower mileage in general (lying to yourself about how far you went) and running too hard in any sort of up tempo effort. It also made it harder to determine paces for racing; outside of track workouts, it was hard to know what was really manageable in terms of pace. With GPS watches, Strava, etc., it's really hard to lie to yourself. The data is there if you want to look at it.

How do you quantify this effect? I'm sure it's miniscule when it comes to top performances. But in terms of the depth of quality at the high school and college level, I think it matters. More people are running more miles at smarter paces due to those pieces of technology.

Complete reach. Why are people doing this type of mental gymnastics? It’s literally the footwear. Occam’s razor here.

First point: only applies to the small group of 6th years. We’ve always seen a bunch of 5th years, even pre-COVID. This does not explain how runners with relatively unknown runners with freshman and sophomore eligibility are faster than legends like German Fernandez. NIL money? Lol.

second point: there has always been lots of international athletes, in fact there seem to be fewer dominating at the top level than in the past: Kerr, Lalang, Kithuka, McDonald, Hoare, McBride, Saruni, Korir, Knight, literally could keep going, and those are just the international athletes you likely remember, there has always been many.

third point: this is such a reach and not even remotely peripheral to the discussion. This is the type of thing a D level consultant would come up with trying to bring a “macro” perspective to a problem.

maybe it’s the footwear that was released the year before sub4s inextricably 3x’d with zero ramp.

I’m not saying supershoes don’t have an effect because they definitely do, but does anyone else think the claim in the article that they affect miles times by 3.5-4 seconds and 800 times by 1.5-2 absurd? So no one has run sub 3:32 since 2019? No one sub 1:44 since then too?

I tend to agree and am generally cynical about incredible performances (sad, i know), but seems too impossible for so many runners to never want to spill the beans and share what was going on in terms of doping. Especially if they were disgruntled or had a falling out with the coach/teammates and maybe weren't world-beating talent to begin with.

I mean, almost everyone is lousy at keeping secrets and the scale at which it would need to happen seems unrealistic.

Rojo FFS, give it a rest about the goddamn shoes already. It is 2023. In the name of all that is holy, STOP flogging this dead horse. Everyone has better shoes. My god…man!

Well I don't know what is going on as I had a 10 year old (turns 10 in 2023) run 17:44 for a 5k parkrun today (It's Saturday already here). He trains with my group once per week. I think where I live everyone believes if others are running fast why not them. I am shocked by the time he ran! He was 14 seconds behind one of my 16 years who ran a 2:01/4:05 800/1500m double last week. Crzy.

Hmmm, a high school boy got faster and more muscular? Ever heard of puberty?

I think it depends on the runner. Something Ritz said that didn't make it into the article is that he doesn't think the shoes help the very best guys as much. Which is in line with what I've heard some other coaches say -- that athletes who already had great running mechanics may not get as much of a boost.

But Vig was giving a ballpark estimate, and I think 3.5-4 seconds for a college athlete is a sensible guess for how much the shoes help in a mile.

I actually do agree that the better the runner the lesser effects, that just seems like a crazy amount. Mainly in the 800 I guess, 1.5 seconds seems way too much even in college.

Obviously elite runners will see less benefits than mediocre runners. Elite runners already trained at the highest level, had the best injury prevention tools, best coaching, all they do is sleep and run. They are already so close to the ceiling of what humans are capable of. That’s why you’re not seeing 3:24, yet. However the training benefits of super shoes on a 4:03 guy in college who partied every other Saturday night is significant. He doesn’t get injured as much, he doesn’t feel as fatigued, he can hammer more reps in practice. Then he gets a nice little boost from better spike tech then voila, 3:59 on training that would have kept him at 4:03 forever.

Not a whole lot of difference between a 4:03 and and a 3:59 NCAA miler a few years ago, all were elite, all had talent. A tweak of training, competition, nutrition, lifestyle changes was always on the athletes mind for elevated success. It's a stretch to think over the last 4 years everything has changed and athletes are more dedicated. Coaches philosophies have changed and advanced in unicen, all the while nutrition/ lifestyle has improved. At the same time all are doing the same thing to reap the benefits, but it doesn't have as much effect on the record breakers? The shoes have changed and is helping everyone.The only thing holding back a 3:24 is Super Shoe version 2 or 3.0. Not sure where it will stop now.

I have no clue what you are trying to say here.

When you’re on the spectrum and you’re brain gets fixed on something it’s really hard to get past it.

No. No. No. Just harder to detect.

Ever heard of steroids?

The problem with threads like these is that the arguments for what has led to faster times are all based on assumptions. It must be the "shoes", some say, and yet there is no scientifically validated data - only speculation - that confirms a significant advantage for the shoes. Many of the current world records were accomplished in the old shoes. Or others say it must be "more scientific training", and yet no one defines what that training is for a given athlete. Some athletes - we see - are achieving prs on only 30mpw with some cross-training. That is "Bannister-training". We also know doping exists but we don't know who is doping and who isn't and what they are taking. Consequently, the only thing we can say with any confidence is that we simply can't be sure what are the causal factors in recent improvements.