How long until Cade Flatt breaks American 800 record?

Symmonds also ran 5 times as much mileage

I'm not sure that I buy it. Flatt looks like he is is already 24-25 years old. He looked like he was 24 or 25 when he was a freshman or sophomore in high school. he probably started shaving in grade school. Guys like that peak earlier. There are countles examples of this happening. Brazier still has room to grow. Methinks that Flatt is near his peak now. He'll get a bit faster but he'll top out at 1:45ish.

No guarantee of big improvement. Coached a kid who ran 1.47 in HS (same year as Brazier). was doing very little training (as a 400/800 guy) with NO training partners, went to a reasonable college program, got up to 70miles/week, but never broke 1.46. Is now a 1500m runner. Flatt is much faster than he was, but so was Abdallahi Hassan (Wisconsin) - he ran 1.47 a few years ago in HS off of a 46.8 400m, but has yet to break 1.46.

Brazier running 1.43 as a Frosh (record at the time, maybe should be still given Saruni's situation) was huge. But he has taken just over a second off of that since, and is having trouble staying healthy. Murphy hasn't improved his time since that OG 800m in 2016. So progression isn't always linear (as stated above), and it is easy to stagnate in the 800m.

Carlton Orange or John Lewis?

This is the dumbest take ever written....he will get the record this year, not next

The list of promising teenage runners who never mature into world class competitors would be the longest LR thread in history. But here's hoping for Cade's success.

Dusty, that you?

Trying to remember the history of sub 1.40 predications. Harry Wilson certainly said when he was coaching a young Steve Ovett that he thought he'd be the first to run sub 1.40 in the 1970s. Ovett of course won the Olympics but never broke 1.44.

Edwin Moses said he thought he could go run sub 1.40 and said something like 2 sun 50's shouldn't be too hard.

This is criteria that has nothing to do with the ridiculous times you projected. NEXT!!!

I believe he was 19 as a high school senior (probably late 2003 birthday). For me, it's much more impressive to see 17 year old seniors running great times and beating guys that are a year or two older than it is to see an older high school senior succeed. His times are impressive, but appear much less so when you consider his age. His potential important is probably less than the less developed 17 and 18 year old seniors.

Some good points. I am impressed with anybody at any age who can go 1:46 for 800m. Cade has a lot of talent and we will see how he develops in University. I believe we will see some great times from him.

Will Sumner has a much higher ceiling and greater overall potential than Flatt does. He also looks like most 19 year old guys look. That bodes better for his future.

Cade Flatt was a 20 year old freshman, back in HS

Flatt may be the next great 800m runner but he has a much better chance of becoming the 800m version of Soren Knudsen, a distance runner who had many threads about him but who never lived up to the hype. Not sure who starts all these threads, whether it be Soren or Cade, or their buddies, or what not, but it is probably doing these athletes a disservice. Cade Flatt could probably run 1:45 outdoors this year but let us pump the brakes a bit until we see more performances, not boasting.

I'm pretty sure that Flatt started this thread himself. I guess he likes putting a target on his back.

And Ryun ran 1:44.3 at 19 years, 1 month, 11 days.

Certainly dont see what you see. Flatt looks 10 years younger than Brazier. Looks like a typical jock, except this one is running track. Does he intimidate you?

Err, Sumner looks like some scraggly 35 year old

You people are turning this Sumner/Flatt thing into the male version of Tuohy/Valby. It is bizarre.