Why wouldn’t McGraw win? He beat Gableman in both districts and regionals, and at states he only lost to him by 1 second. Even if McGraw didn’t have as good as a xc season as Gableman, track talent differs from xc enough to make it possible.
Great HS talent that really leveled off in college. He was decent but not what many thought he would be.
He'll have a good career at Syracuse.
This is an interesting point that I would like to touch on. I am getting back into following OHSAA D-I running and have been going back over the 2010s, checking state championship results and then seeing how top state finishers panned out in college.
This caught my eye today: 2017 state champ in the 3200m with a whopping 8:58, Hunter Moore. He's run for four programs in his collegiate career?!? Started out at Eastern Michigan, transferred to Indiana, ended up at DIII Otterbein for a year, and is now at DII Walsh??? Is that right?
This is an interesting point that I would like to touch on. I am getting back into following OHSAA D-I running and have been going back over the 2010s, checking state championship results and then seeing how top state finishers panned out in college.
This caught my eye today: 2017 state champ in the 3200m with a whopping 8:58, Hunter Moore. He's run for four programs in his collegiate career?!? Started out at Eastern Michigan, transferred to Indiana, ended up at DIII Otterbein for a year, and is now at DII Walsh??? Is that right?
That’s correct. I guess he never found the right fit.
Why wouldn’t McGraw win? He beat Gableman in both districts and regionals, and at states he only lost to him by 1 second. Even if McGraw didn’t have as good as a xc season as Gableman, track talent differs from xc enough to make it possible.
I am being lazy and just taking their order from their 2022 finish--in June 2023 for the 1600m: 1. Ackley, 2. Gabelman, 3. Allwein, 4. McGraw. But that actually sounds right to me.
And tell Ethan Cope of Toledo St. Francis not to take the lead in the first lap. Tell him to sit back a bit, and then move up in the pack, and then maybe he'll place in the top eight in June 2023?
This is an interesting point that I would like to touch on. I am getting back into following OHSAA D-I running and have been going back over the 2010s, checking state championship results and then seeing how top state finishers panned out in college.
This caught my eye today: 2017 state champ in the 3200m with a whopping 8:58, Hunter Moore. He's run for four programs in his collegiate career?!? Started out at Eastern Michigan, transferred to Indiana, ended up at DIII Otterbein for a year, and is now at DII Walsh??? Is that right?
Yes, that’s right. I could be wrong about this but Moore might be at Walsh as a grad transfer. I am fairly certain that is how Zach Kreft ended up at Walsh after graduating from Notre Dame. Kreft is running very well right now.
Nathan Mountain seems to have had a lot of injury issues since he’s been at Virginia. Once he is healthy he could end up being with the best to have ever come out of Ohio.
The most surprising runner to me based on how he did in high school is probably Dustin Horter. He was only at Indiana but never got on track. I’m wondering if it was a matter of a lack of effort from him or some other change. His decline was pretty shocking.
The most surprising runner to me based on how he did in high school is probably Dustin Horter. He was only at Indiana but never got on track. I’m wondering if it was a matter of a lack of effort from him or some other change. His decline was pretty shocking.
Agreed, that is a big story. Horter owned the track in HS, winning the 1600m in 2017 and 2018. Arjun Jha, Horter's future teammate at IU and also a great HS runner, but ends up in Horter's shadow there, placed 10th in the 1600m in 2016 and then 2nd in 2017, and then "drops down" to the 800m in 2018, finishing in 5th.
In college, their successes are flipped--Jha's times are much better than Horter's at IU. Most recently, Jha had a decent CC season at Michigan as a grad transfer in 2022.
Nathan Mountain seems to have had a lot of injury issues since he’s been at Virginia. Once he is healthy he could end up being with the best to have ever come out of Ohio.
I am curious to see how Nick Plant does at Virginia Tech.
Not all, but *some* high school coaches take a lot of the physical and mental juice out of their high school athletes in exchange for success. High mileage, less rest days, more workout volume and intensity and etc. Once again this is not all coaches and runners that are successful at the high school level, but if you do indeed take data from just the last 5-6 years, you will see many State podium finishing XC and Track runners decline or are stagnant after high school. But you will see more success (from a ratio/percentage standpoint) from the high school athletes (podium or not) that had training with far less mileage, mental exhaustion, and more recovery days thrive after high school. I am looking at the consistency of these runners at the college level..are they staying healthy, are they getting better, are they running all 4 years? Of course there are other variables after high school that factor into my thesis (parties, college program/coaching could be the issue, academics, etc) Now obviously those state podium finishers are already running so fast so college wise they won't drop times as much as those who run slower times in high school, but yes you see more injuries, burnout, lack of love and etc from *some* of these athletes who had high school coaches who over trained them mentally and physically. Once again this is not all high school runners or coaches who have state podium finishing, but you will see it more with these runners who had endured more intense and higher volume and training than others with their high school coaches. If you look at the mileage and training some of these high school coaches are giving their male and female runners, you would be in shock but not surprised (sadly) that these specific runners from these specific coaches do not excel after high school or cannot stay healthy
more post high school success and consistency from the high school runners who had far less mileage, far less intense workouts, far less mental exhaustion and had more recovery days*
That is indeed a fascinating study. What does it take for successful HS runners to make the leap into college and continue a hot trajectory of improvements and greater successes? Why don't so many great HS runner successfully make the leap? For the ones who do, why?
Good stuff.
Another idea that I have been toying with: is it more prudent for some top HS athletes to not go DI and instead go DII or to a top DIII program? Granted it's only one example, but I look to Nick Symmonds. Also, how will Nathan Moore's running career pan out at DII Walsh?
I want to collect more data and make some sort of graph about it so it is more solidified evidence..but it sucks for these kids after high school.
Regarding your "Case" I agree that many D2 and D3 programs are overlooked as there are many great coaches, athletes, and programs at these Divisions but that they do not get the respect they deserve..Of course many great D1 coaches, athletes, and programs at a larger scale but I feel many of these studs (male and female) in high school go to D1 programs that just are not a good fit and can be overwhelming, but may feel that social pressure around them to go D1 where it may be not a good fit *for them* and they do not consider some of these D2 and D3 programs (or smaller D1) where they could excel at a better rate and opportunity
Why wouldn’t McGraw win? He beat Gableman in both districts and regionals, and at states he only lost to him by 1 second. Even if McGraw didn’t have as good as a xc season as Gableman, track talent differs from xc enough to make it possible.
He certainly could. I mean, he ran 4:12 as well, and as you said... he outkicked Ben a couple times in the postseason last year. It's a toss up, really. If I had to pick though, I say Ben. That state meet race was just... solid.
If I had to pick though, I say Ben. That state meet race was just... solid.
Yeah, Gabelman has been on the up and up since his sophomore track season. Hopefully, he can continue to follow a nice trajectory and really have a special junior track season and senior year. I would also pick Ben.
Agreed, that is a big story. Horter owned the track in HS, winning the 1600m in 2017 and 2018. Arjun Jha, Horter's future teammate at IU and also a great HS runner, but ends up in Horter's shadow there, placed 10th in the 1600m in 2016 and then 2nd in 2017, and then "drops down" to the 800m in 2018, finishing in 5th.
In college, their successes are flipped--Jha's times are much better than Horter's at IU. Most recently, Jha had a decent CC season at Michigan as a grad transfer in 2022.
Horter reminds me a bit of Zach Wills who ran at Mason in the late 2000s-early 2010s. Wills was almost unstoppable in high school and then went on to Oklahoma State. I believe that bad injuries are the reason that Wills did not live up to expectations and he did not stick with competitive running so his situation is a bit different than Horter's. I don't know the reason for Horter's decline and am unaware of injuries but he may have had them? The last I heard about Wills was that he completed med school and is in residency now.
Not all, but *some* high school coaches take a lot of the physical and mental juice out of their high school athletes in exchange for success. High mileage, less rest days, more workout volume and intensity and etc. Once again this is not all coaches and runners that are successful at the high school level, but if you do indeed take data from just the last 5-6 years, you will see many State podium finishing XC and Track runners decline or are stagnant after high school. But you will see more success (from a ratio/percentage standpoint) from the high school athletes (podium or not) that had training with far less mileage, mental exhaustion, and more recovery days thrive after high school. I am looking at the consistency of these runners at the college level..are they staying healthy, are they getting better, are they running all 4 years? Of course there are other variables after high school that factor into my thesis (parties, college program/coaching could be the issue, academics, etc) Now obviously those state podium finishers are already running so fast so college wise they won't drop times as much as those who run slower times in high school, but yes you see more injuries, burnout, lack of love and etc from *some* of these athletes who had high school coaches who over trained them mentally and physically. Once again this is not all high school runners or coaches who have state podium finishing, but you will see it more with these runners who had endured more intense and higher volume and training than others with their high school coaches. If you look at the mileage and training some of these high school coaches are giving their male and female runners, you would be in shock but not surprised (sadly) that these specific runners from these specific coaches do not excel after high school or cannot stay healthy
A lot of what you mention is true but there are other factors, growth, maturity, and all that, also at play. It seems that it happens more with the women than the men. There are plenty of example of girls that were great in high school only to go on to college and become very average. There are those exceptions also. Katelyn Tuohy has been a phenom from an early age and she is on her way to becoming one of the best collegiate runners of all time. She still has a lot of room for growth. Natalie Cook who is at Oklahoma State is another example. She was outstanding in high school and was the highest placing freshman in the NCAA XC meet. She looks like she is going to be a great runner. I thought that Zofia Dudek was going to be a high school runner that fizzled but she had injuries and is starting to run well now. But for every high school runner like those, there seems like there are many more that don't pan out.
With the guys, the same thing can happen but does not seem to happen as often. Horter is one example and there are some others. With any of the high school phenoms if I am a college coach looking at them, I will always pick the one that ran lower miles in high school and was still able to have decent achievements. If someone is running a mile time 5-10 seconds slower and a 2 mile time 15-20 seconds slower on half the miles of the faster runner, I would almost always predict that the lower mileage guy will eventually be better in college unless there are some other factors at play.
Another idea that I have been toying with: is it more prudent for some top HS athletes to not go DI and instead go DII or to a top DIII program? Granted it's only one example, but I look to Nick Symmonds. Also, how will Nathan Moore's running career pan out at DII Walsh?
Moore is already running well at Walsh and he looks like he's on his way to a good collegiate career. I believe that Kreft is now out of XC eligibility so Moore will have a bigger role next season. This past year he ran as the #2 guy after Kreft. Moore must have been injured last outdoor track season because it does not appear that he ran.