4:02 Japanese high schooler - Sonata Nagashima - runs 28:31 10k. Which American HSers in history could do this?

It is noticeably weaker than any of the other HS records but you sort of need special circumstance for it to happen. I seem to recall Chapa ran like 3 of them chasing a OT qualifier. Pretty much everyone takes one shot and then are done. A lot will need to line up.

Personally I would rather pretty much everyone focus on a sub 8:30 2 mile.

If you are talking about the 13:22 guy, he is committed to the school Ryuji Miura is attending. I think it's a good choice given how Miura's track career has been going.

Wish more 10ks are run in peak track season, but between Lex, Leo, and Gorze, one of them should get it. I have to imagine Lex and Leo will both go sub 8:30.

Nico and Fernandez ran sub 28:30 in every 10k track race they ran....

German did it as a Freshman? You sure? Nico still hasn't. There are a lot of posters convinced the guys mentioned above, still in high school, could do it. They're not getting it this school year; that is a safe bet. If they don't so as NCAA true Freshman, then it's a guarantee they couldn't have as HS Seniors. The point: Chapa's record is not soft. If it was, college Freshman would be regularly going under it. They're not.

Pretty sure. Feel free to correct me and list the 10000m races they ran where they didn't break 28:30....

I will list nothing. The lack of results is what proves my point. Nico has never run under the US HS 10000 record. Ever. If he couldn't do it several months ago during Sophmore track season, he certainly couldn't have 2 years earlier. By the way, Rupp couldn't do it while still HS-record- elegible. He actually tried. So, one thing you think is that the NP crowd is better than Rupp.

You can feel free to show us Fernandez' earliest 28:30 and how young/how close to high school it was. You're the one making the claim. Show us the results. I am the one saying these past high school stars, who graduated without a 10k or 10000m PR, could NOT have broken Chapa's record while still in high school 'if they had a chance to.' They all 'had a chance to' 10 months after graduating. Doing it then doesn't prove they could have a year earlier. NOT doing it then comes very close to proving they couldn't have.

The current high school mid-D runners being discussed here will not do it. They can't. If they can now 'if they had a chance' then they will easily do so a year and a half from now when 'they have a chance.' In fact, feel free to post every single NCAA true (meaning only one year older) Freshman, either sex, who went under the current US HS 10000 records. It is a very short list. Showing us Rupp's Freshman PR doesn't prove he could have done it in HS. He tried to. He didn't. These guys whose best events are shorter than Rupp's certainly can't.

Since you are obviously a bit dense: Why do you think GF and Nico didn't run sub 28:30 as freshman? Again as I said they ran sub 28:30 in every 10000m they ran......

Because they couldn't. That is why. And they certainly couldn't a year earlier. This is very safe to say because they didn't do it in HS. Even if they had done it Freshman year, one could possibly speculate about a year earlier. Keep in mind Rupp, who's best event was exactly that, tried after HS Senior year. Tried.

Why do YOU think those particular guys, or any number of other HS Mid-D runners didn't? You may say they 'didn't have a chance' to while still in HS. They DID 'have a chance' in college. Every Conference offers one. Regionals too. Ditto various early-season meets often used for qualifying purposes. They all had the option of running it, and if they were in 28 flat shape (keeping in mind the record is ridiculously soft and that any HS superstar could make a mockery of it) as HS Seniors, they all went well down into the 27 range a year older after specifically training for the event. Didn't they? Why not? You asked me why not and I told you. Now you tell me.

Tyrone Gorze from Crater OR, maybe not right now but in the spring possibly

And I never said they didn't have a chance to run a 10000. I have no clue where you are getting that. I am just telling you why they didn't run sub 28:30.

No, you are NOT telling anyone why they didn't. They didn't do it Freshman year. It seem you are finally in agreement on that point. Earlier you claimed they did (run under 28:30 Freshman year).

Answer the question: If these guys could have, and NP Seniors could now, go under the US HS record, what was stopping them from 28:30 as NCAA Freshmen? It seems you agree they didn't. Why not?

Hint: I already told you why not. They couldn't!

I never claimed they ran sub 28:30. I said they ran sub 28:30 in all their 10000m. And that explains why they didn't run sub 28:30....

How old is Sonata? It is a bit difficult to judge him if his age is unknown. But let´s assume he is not older than 19.
I am not an expert in American HS running but as stated by others Nico Young must be at least at the same level with
3:44 at 18
3:56 at 19
13.24 and 13.11 at 18 and 19
Nico hasn´t run the 10,000 but I feel certain he could have run well under 28 at 18 considering his 5000m time
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If we look towards Europe Danish Joel Ibler Lillesoe has run
3:44.5 and 3:42.65 at 16 and 18
7:49.61 at 17
13:40 and 13:29 at 17 and 18
28:38 road 10km on a rather slow (hilly) course. On a faster course he can possibly run close to 28.
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Danish Axel Vang Christensen (18 in July) is faster on the longer distances than Lillesoe so he could also compare to the Japanese.
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And Jakob is of course on a different level with 3:30, 13:02 and sub 28 at age 18 .

Well a Japanese 16 year old ran 1:48.8 last year, and a Japanese 16 year old ran 1:49.5 this year.

This year a 16 yo Japanese ran 47.05. Four Japanese teens ran under 47.0, and an 18 year old ran 47.01.
Three Japanese teenagers ran sub 47 last year, and a guy just turned 20 ran 46.09.

So you pulled your stats out of your rear.

I agree, but if there’s one I think who has the best shot at it, I’d have to say Lex. Lex has always been stronger as the distances go up. Brosnan has even said this on a podcast before. I feel like Lex is the one who should take that record down.