NC State and Tuohy will not win Nationals (OK State and Valby will)

I agree with you, Valby definately can....especially if she is better at hills than expected. But I don't see her creating a panic for Tuohy. ND pushed a hard pace at ACC's....and on a hilly course, Tuohy stayed with them at the start and averaged a 3:11/km pace. McCabe just won at Stillwater with a 3:20 pace. Mercy won in 2020 with a similar pace.

How much faster will the pace need to be this year? I believe Tuohy will be able to gauge Valby's pace pretty well based on the ACC Champs. Plus she got a good feel for her own ability on a hilly course.

It will certainly be an interesting race to see.

McCabe did not win in Stillwater.

thanks for the correction....my bad

Team ND (their top 5 in the top 15 @ ACC’s) is another team to watch.

Yes, Mercy won at 3:20 pace. The ground was hard then; no grass. I wonder how that will factor as well.

as few as possible....1...and Chmiel 5 for that matter

The 2020 championship was a weak year....this year 19:30-35 to win, sub 20 for top 5 barring bad conditions. I can't see Stillwater being more than 20 seconds slower than Panorama Farms and it might be less (except for those that blow up).

Was the panorama farms course that tough? The times at Nutty were much slower, and nutty is easier than stillwater

The 2 ND ladies seemed to want to make this faster so it did start faster...this course had a lot of ups and downs...I counted between ~3400 m and 4 K there must have been 4 ups and down and more than just a little roll...and most of that they ran twice (in different directions)...at Nuttycombe noone pushed the pace until late....Tuohy and Chmiel picked up the pace here at 4K to drop Markezich and then more in final K so this whole race was faster.

I was thinking the same thing in the previous posts. If Valby goes out fast, Tuohy will stay with her, within her limits.

I imagine that pushing Tuohy to her threshold and still being ahead of her would be a very difficult thing to do for Valby.

Tuohy would back off if she was red-lining and needed to keep a bit in reserve for that final hill.

In an incredible scenario, Valby could do that, push Tuohy to her limits and STILL keep going and be able to cross the finish line first. I just don’t see that happening. I believe Tuohy is too intelligent and race savvy for that.

This is basically what she did in the last two races looking at the splits. At SEC she basically started sprinting at 2.12k and dropped the pace to 2:49/k and Chelangat went with her... They split a 9:11 at 3k. Then they both slowed, but Valby slowed less and kept gaining on Chelangat through to the end.

You have to have crazy fitness to do that. I don't think she will have an issue with the hills.

Caveat that I don't believe this was a full 6k, and the splits could be wrong.

This photo captures 1 of the series of ups and downs during that 3400-4000 stretch....the ones near the finish are similar and there were more before and after 5K I think too.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1f5JxlczwRdk1w8VxXq0eAClrD5dRbMIB/view?usp=share_link

Now that's a hill! Wow! Did they have to do that more than once?

They ran that section in each direction.

This is from right before the finish and they also ran this in both directions.

This was not a flat course and the terrain was not well manicured.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fvAsoXAI4y6SMuyeq5RFCeB-DajUAQV4/view?usp=share_link

Anyways, Valby is fit but then what you do not realize is that Coach Henes is NOT making her runners run fast times just yet, when she was interviewed, they said they didnt want a fast race. Katelyn has not been running to her full potential yet, her tactic is different than Valby's.

Katelyn closed 2:01 on a tough hill at Panorama Farms, plus there was a bigger and tougher hill at the back end that they run 2/3 times plus lots of hills with turns, on that race she just stalked the leaders that ran pretty fast on the first 2k, she looked pretty comfortable, always looking back to look for her teammates and she looked strong on that last hill
xemptyzI could see it happening at Stillwater, Katelyn and Mccabe will be behind Valby who will push the pace, if they are still with Valby on the last K, Valby will get out-kicked, Mccabe and Katelyn has a better kick.

About the Panorama Course, I have been comparing and it looked harder than the Stillwater course !!!!

I wish they’d let the competitors share information more than they do. Such as:

A scenario with an interview with Tuohy & Chmiel when asked what THEIR thoughts were on the Panorama Farms course vs what they expect to see at Stillwater. Their response very well could have been something like: ”Oh Panorama is MUCH more difficult” or, “They’re about even as far as difficulty”, etc…

Sam did an instagram take over on someones account said that Panorama Hills is quite "hilly" but never compared it to Stillwater

I checked a few other runners and by the splits everyone seemingly accelerated there so I don't believe the split. The 1 to 2.12 split looks consistent with the start so I don't think that one is "long".

SEC splits

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