Could Kipchoge run a sub 4 min mile right now with specific training ?

Shtuka wrote:

Let's take 2:01:09. That's 4:37.4 per mile. Let's say the question is if he could run 3:59.0 for a single mile. That would require his MarathonPace to be 16.1% slower than MilePace (In the sense that 4:37/3:59 = 1.16). What would this look like for some other times?

3:59 ---> 4:37 (~2:01)

4:10 ---> 4:50 (~2:06:30)

4:20 ---> 5:02 (~2:11:30)

4:30 ---> 5:13.5 (~2:17)

4:40 ---> 5:25 (~2:22)

4:50 ---> 5:37 (~2:27)

5:00 ---> 5:48 (~2:32)

So, asking if Eliud can run 3:59 right away in his marathon buildup / peak is (at least on raw mathematical analogy) equates to asking runners in the parenthetical marathon shape if they can run the corresponding mile time.

To believe that Eliud could *not* run 3:59.0 suggests the existence of 2:32 runners who can't break 5, 2:22 runners who top out at 4:4x in their marathon buildup, 2:17 runners who can't get under 4:30, 2:11:30 above 4:20, and so on.

I have no idea what Chepngetich, Kosgei, etc are capable of in the mile. Ruth opened in 15:11 (4:53.8/mile), so I'm not convinced she couldn't crack 4:30... Connor Mantz just ran 2:08, could he run 4:15 or so? That's 13:10 5k pace, so seems like even in his marathon buildup he wouldn't be out of shot of it.

Could you run 2:07 and fail to be able to break 4:10 on that day? Perhaps.

Now of course Eliud's endurance is likely to be prodigious compared to any mortal, so it's possible these comparisons break down at top end. Still, perhaps people with experience in the 2:10-2:25 range can report some anecdotal data: e.g. Did anyone ever run 2:17 on a day they couldn't crack 4:30?

420 miler wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Complete speculation on what he could run in the Spring if he made it his training focus, assuming he doesn’t start to slide, with paces per 400 & K:

1mi. 3:57.0 - 58.9 - 2:27.3
3k 7:42 - 61.6 - 2:34.0
5k 13:05 - 62.8 - 2:37.0
10k 26:55 - 64.6 - 2:41.5
1/2 58:10 - 66.2 - 2:45.4
1:59:41 - 68.1 - 2:50.2
2:01:09 - 68.9 - 2:52.3

I have to believe his 3:50/7:27 days are well behind him and he couldn’t regain that speed if he tried, but he has the best aerobic development and marathon-pace efficiency of any potential sub-4 guy in the world.

You guys have taken your Kipchoge idolatry to unhealthy levels. His 10k lifetime PR is 26:49 and you think he can now run 26:55?! Ludicrous!

After switching to the marathon, Rupp can no longer come within 30 seconds of his 10k PR, and Rupp was better at 10k than Kipchoge! The best Kipchoge could hope to run on the track for 10k today is 27:30. Tops.

To his credit Kipchoge has become an aerobic monster. Please don’t try to turn him into something he’s not. I would hate for him to read this thread and try to a run a sub 4 mile. His poor hammy couldn’t take it!

420 miler wrote:

420 miler wrote:

You guys have taken your Kipchoge idolatry to unhealthy levels. His 10k lifetime PR is 26:49 and you think he can now run 26:55?! Ludicrous!

After switching to the marathon, Rupp can no longer come within 30 seconds of his 10k PR, and Rupp was better at 10k than Kipchoge! The best Kipchoge could hope to run on the track for 10k today is 27:30. Tops.

To his credit Kipchoge has become an aerobic monster. Please don’t try to turn him into something he’s not. I would hate for him to read this thread and try to a run a sub 4 mile. His poor hammy couldn’t take it!

Apologies. I meant to say 27:20. He would run a 10k in 27:30 if he tried it today without training for it. He would run 27:20 if he trained for it. Maybe 27:15 with perfect conditions and pacers as he is accustomed to having for all his races. Still no sub 4.

Wise Old Man wrote:

420 miler wrote:

You guys have taken your Kipchoge idolatry to unhealthy levels. His 10k lifetime PR is 26:49 and you think he can now run 26:55?! Ludicrous!

After switching to the marathon, Rupp can no longer come within 30 seconds of his 10k PR, and Rupp was better at 10k than Kipchoge! The best Kipchoge could hope to run on the track for 10k today is 27:30. Tops.

To his credit Kipchoge has become an aerobic monster. Please don’t try to turn him into something he’s not. I would hate for him to read this thread and try to a run a sub 4 mile. His poor hammy couldn’t take it!

This is beyond funny. You think a guy who ran 12:46 back in the day, and just now ran 2:01:09 would not have been a better 10K runner than Fisher or Rupp if he focused on that event? I would expect Kipchoge to be just a bit off Bekele at his peak. He’s certainly a 26:25 talent in the 10k. Don’t get all literal on me and say his pr is slower than Rupp’s or Fisher’s . You have a top 10 5000 meter talent of all time (how about sub 12:40 in super shoes) and the marathon goat by a wide margin, and you think magically he just happens to have sucked at the 10?

Wise Old Man wrote:

420 miler wrote:

You guys have taken your Kipchoge idolatry to unhealthy levels. His 10k lifetime PR is 26:49 and you think he can now run 26:55?! Ludicrous!

After switching to the marathon, Rupp can no longer come within 30 seconds of his 10k PR, and Rupp was better at 10k than Kipchoge! The best Kipchoge could hope to run on the track for 10k today is 27:30. Tops.

To his credit Kipchoge has become an aerobic monster. Please don’t try to turn him into something he’s not. I would hate for him to read this thread and try to a run a sub 4 mile. His poor hammy couldn’t take it!

This is beyond funny. You think a guy who ran 12:46 back in the day, and just now ran 2:01:09 would not have been a better 10K runner than Fisher or Rupp if he focused on that event? I would expect Kipchoge to be just a bit off Bekele at his peak. He’s certainly a 26:25 talent in the 10k. Don’t get all literal on me and say his pr is slower than Rupp’s or Fisher’s . You have a top 10 5000 meter talent of all time (how about sub 12:40 in super shoes) and the marathon goat by a wide margin, and you think magically he just happens to have sucked at the 10?

Wise Old Man wrote:

420 miler wrote:

He was foolishly focusing on speed back then. That’s why he wasn’t as good at 10k. You can’t give him credit for a time he never ran. If he could have run faster than 26:49 he would have done it. Now his speed is gone because he made the smart decision to switch to the marathon. He has been concentrating on the marathon for almost 10 years now. That speed is loooooong gone and never coming back. Hence the 4:02 with a pulled hammy.

To say what he can or can’t do before or now and reference a 26:49 pr as part of the justification is to reveal that you have no comprehension regarding his talent level. 26:55 might be only 6 seconds faster than his pr, but do you seriously think 26:49 is the best he could have run in light of his 12:46 pre super shoes and 2:01:09 now? You really don’t think 2003/4 Kipchoge could not beat 2012-14 Rupp at 10000? How can a 12:58/2:06 person be more capable of running a fast 10k than a 12:46/2:01 person? It defies logic.