Why is Hoare so inconsistent?

You haven’t heard of The 3:37 Project?

According to LetsRun wisdom it because he’s clean/dirty (user choice)

+1 But as you say yourself his mental " talent", including his diligence/ work ethics, is possibly the most important part of it.

Jakob himself will possibly deny that it is talent stressing that it is right (aerobic) training over many, many years which is the reason to his success. Very similar to Peter Snell who said : "I didn´t have a WONDERFUL talent but I trained right". Snell also said that if he should choose a young athlete he would rather look for the desire to achieve than for pure physical abilty.

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By the way:

It is interesting to see how people have changed their view on Jakob over the last years.

Even you, Salvatore, who I consider one of the more serious posters here was much more dismissive some few years ago as this quotation shows:

"Salvatore Stitchmo:
Everything you said here is right on.
My question is that this
rate of progression simply has to slow down at some point - obviously
Jakob is super accelerated with respect to age and ability - could it be
that he simply starts tapping out before he even hits 22? This is quite
possible.
What do I think he's going to run if he stays healthy?
1500: 3.29.0 +/- 0.2 seconds
Mile: 3.48.0 +/- 0.2 seconds
2000m 4.49.5 +/- 0.5 seconds (if he ever runs one again which he may not)
3000m: 7.30.0 +/- 0.5 seconds
50000m: 12.55 +/- 1 second
I
believe it's easy to just think he's going to blast his PR's every
single time he's on the track. But his bank of cumulative hard efforts
is well and truly underway. If he hit the best case for each of my
predictions he is basically Mo Farah without the drugs which gives an
idea of how good I am assuming he is.
As for WR's though? - to quote James - "not even remotely" ""

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I suppose you now agree that Jakob also will surpass your prediction regarding the 2000m if he ever runs that distance again under good conditions?

Ohh, I don't think we're in disagreement. I thought Georgie raced great, Ollie just had a little stronger finish to the season. They were both killing it and swapping kicks early. Just my sense harder for Beamish to win in those 5k fields vs. if he was running the 1500 with Ollie the potential of massive kicks.

Nice find! Yeah I wouldn't say that was dismissive in any way, it was at the time the level I thought he would get to (based on a hypothesis his rapid improvement was possibly not sustainable) and come on, not like any of those performances are bad! I mean if Jakob was an Olympic/World champ and had that lifetime resume of PR's it still makes him one of the greatest MD runners of all time.

And yet I was totally wrong which I am happy to admit because he's even better!

This would now be my revision for him based on the last 12 months

1500m 3.27.2 +/- 0.2 seconds

Mile 3.44.8 +/- 0.2 seconds

2000m 4.47.2 +/- 0.5 seconds

3000m 7.25.5 +/- 0.5 seconds

5000m 12.44.5 +/- 0.5 seconds

I still stand by the WR's POV. Obviously his best chance is at his best event - the 1500m/Mile but I don't know if he has the pure leg speed to run into the 26's. You could point to Lagat who had a recorded 800m PR of 1.46 and also El G at 1.47 but there is zero doubt when both of them were in low 3.26 shape they were 1.44 high runners at worst (and I think El Guerrouj more like 1.43's). The optics and strengths of Jakob and my gut feeling is that he can run in the 1.45 mid range but I don't know if that's enough. The 2000m and 3000m records are just ridiculous - especially the 3000m, but the 2000 is sneakily incredible - 3.49.6 for 4 laps then 55.19 to close? I could see JI going 3.51.x through 1200 then grinding out a 55.x

Again, just my opinion - would be happy to wrong on this again too!

Also back to Hoare - this is an awesome clip from channel 7 in Australia with the legendary Bruce McAvaney on commentary. Inspiring stuff.

Australian Champs/Worlds/Commonwealth Games.

If you look at his 1500s/miles they're all super consistent. His 1500s basically range from mid to high 3:30s. 3:30-flat at CG was a huge run for him. His two miles this year were super solid.

Having an off race every now & then, especially after races you would think he peaked for, actually makes me feel like maybe he isn't a doper.