I think it will. Loss of Steelman and Hays pretty much replaced with Starliper and Seymour. But if Chmiel loses 30-40 places due to less fitness coming off the injury that would be a big blow unless someone else took a big step up toward where Bush was last year. NM seems to be a very good squad (assuming they are healthy). Alabama, if Tynismaa is healthy has a very strong 1-3 and looks much stronger at 4-5 this year than last year.
I think that's underestimating the additions of Gionna Quarzo (15:56/33:24) who was All American over 10k on the track last spring (made a HUGE jump in spring), Mariah Howlett (33:40) who qualified for NCAA regionals in the 5k and 10k and was 4th in ACC 10k, Hannah Gapes (4:26/16:45) who was the New Zealand U20 XC champion, and Brooke Rauber (redshirted last year, but 3x NXN top 10, US and PanAm XC champion in 2020).
Add these 4 ladies to: Tuohy, Bush, Seymour, Shaw, Starliper, and a 80% Chmiel and I'm not sure depth is an issue. Maybe it is... guess time will tell.
Mazza-Downie, Larkin, Thorner, Heckel, Goldstein makes a pretty good top 5 for NM. And they have more depth too.
I think that's underestimating the additions of Gionna Quarzo (15:56/33:24) who was All American over 10k on the track last spring (made a HUGE jump in spring), Mariah Howlett (33:40) who qualified for NCAA regionals in the 5k and 10k and was 4th in ACC 10k, Hannah Gapes (4:26/16:45) who was the New Zealand U20 XC champion, and Brooke Rauber (redshirted last year, but 3x NXN top 10, US and PanAm XC champion in 2020).
Add these 4 ladies to: Tuohy, Bush, Seymour, Shaw, Starliper, and a 80% Chmiel and I'm not sure depth is an issue. Maybe it is... guess time will tell.
Mazza-Downie, Larkin, Thorner, Heckel, Goldstein makes a pretty good top 5 for NM. And they have more depth too.
I'm forgetting... how much did NC State beat NM by last year at NCAA XC?
Even if Chmiel is not 100% back from her injury, I still think NCST has a big edge. Chmiel is clearly running with the team and the coaches are cautious as with Steelman and Hays last year. Take Chmiel out of the picture and the starting four is still Tuohy, Bush, Seymour and Starliper, who was thisclose to a 1st team AA in the 5000m and had a full summer to train. That leaves the 5th spot, and they do have depth. Plus I expect that Chmiel will be ready for nationals. They just need her to get in the top 50.
Even if Chmiel is not 100% back from her injury, I still think NCST has a big edge. Chmiel is clearly running with the team and the coaches are cautious as with Steelman and Hays last year. Take Chmiel out of the picture and the starting four is still Tuohy, Bush, Seymour and Starliper, who was thisclose to a 1st team AA in the 5000m and had a full summer to train. That leaves the 5th spot, and they do have depth. Plus I expect that Chmiel will be ready for nationals. They just need her to get in the top 50.
Shaw and Rauber should be good candidates as the #5 runner if Chmiel were not in a race.
Yeah, there was a similar situation with Steelman in 2021 in XC. She had some kind of minor injury ( I recall her saying it was Achilles) basically the whole season, but it wasn't that serious as she ran most of the races (except for Regionals). Her performance might have dipped just slightly from the 2020 season, due to the injury. She finished 5th in the nationals in Stillwater in March of 2021. Then in November 2021 in Tallahassee, she was 24th.
Mazza-Downie, Larkin, Thorner, Heckel, Goldstein makes a pretty good top 5 for NM. And they have more depth too.
I'm forgetting... how much did NC State beat NM by last year at NCAA XC?
The answer is by 38 over BYU and 46 over NM. A year ago some said there was no way NC St could win having lost to BYU by 70 in the Spring....Last year take out Chmiel and count Holt and NC St finishes 3rd. Score Chmiel at 45 and BYU wins. Fully healthy I agree NC St is the favorite, but less than that I hardly think it is a sure thing.
I'm forgetting... how much did NC State beat NM by last year at NCAA XC?
The answer is by 38 over BYU and 46 over NM. A year ago some said there was no way NC St could win having lost to BYU by 70 in the Spring....Last year take out Chmiel and count Holt and NC St finishes 3rd. Score Chmiel at 45 and BYU wins. Fully healthy I agree NC St is the favorite, but less than that I hardly think it is a sure thing.
This is a bit disingenuous. In reality for THIS year if you take out chmiel you are still adding starliper and seymor, who will likely both be top 25 if not higher
But still would have beaten NM, and that even with a fluke event like KT falling. And I don't expect Chmiel to place above the 20s even if not 100 percent. Nor does NM have anyone like Orton or Camp for that matter.
Anyway I agree that without Chmiel it gets a lot closer. We will know much more as the season progresses.
The answer is by 38 over BYU and 46 over NM. A year ago some said there was no way NC St could win having lost to BYU by 70 in the Spring....Last year take out Chmiel and count Holt and NC St finishes 3rd. Score Chmiel at 45 and BYU wins. Fully healthy I agree NC St is the favorite, but less than that I hardly think it is a sure thing.
This is a bit disingenuous. In reality for THIS year if you take out chmiel you are still adding starliper and seymor, who will likely both be top 25 if not higher
chmiel has to race because she haven't raced for quite awhile
NC State's depth will be tested this year. Chmiel is still dealing with a foot issue. They are basically trying to manage it for the season and avoid surgery. I would not be surprised if she does not race until Nationals if they feel she can contribute.
Back to that first post questioning why Chmiel was not running with the "top group" in photos from workouts about a week ago. I initially remembered those photos (in an open grass field with soccer goals on the edge of the field....the Miller fields on NCSU campus, btw) and didn't recall seeing Chmiel in them at all, in any group. But I just looked up some photos from that day (on a teammate, Alyssa Hendrix's IG story...that I saved), and Chmiel was actually running on that day too.
And here's a pic of Kelsey (behind Katelyn's left shoulder) from just three days ago. She doesn't appear to be in bad spirits, as one might be if having a serious injury.
katelyn tuohy is an american distance runner from new york, born on march 18, 2002 — she now runs for nc state and is taking up business administration 58x new york state section 1 champion 14x new york state champion 9x new...
NC state has 6 runners who can go sub 1530.... They have one runner who is getting close to sub 15... They have another six can go sub 16... If they split their team into two, would take the top two spots... This is the most dominant team ever in college sports!
NC State's depth will be tested this year. Chmiel is still dealing with a foot issue. They are basically trying to manage it for the season and avoid surgery. I would not be surprised if she does not race until Nationals if they feel she can contribute.
source ................. ?
He or she does not have to reveal any sources to anyone, but as stated, Tuffy is a reliable source as history has shown. My guess is that a name like Tuffy means it is a NC State Alum who knows people close to the team. I have heard similar things from others as well, that Kelsey is running but not totally healthy and training like she normally does (her and Katelyn train together when they are both healthy)
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