Could Jakob Ingebrigtsen break the 5000m world record?

I would love to see more elite two mile races being run.

I would bet against all 3 of those.

I'm going to remember this thread for the next 5 years! :) (How much will you bet?)

I think 7:20 is worth 12:33 ish

Yes! I mean, who can really know for sure? But 7:20 has rarely been approached, unlike 3:26, and 12:35. I think 7:20=12:33=3:25=1:40.5=26:05.

Maybe 3000m is Jakob's best distance?

Wale "accidentally" running 7:24 indoors after Girma miscounted the laps changed my perception on 7:20 being unbeatable. If he can get that close to it in February and Wale is not exactly considered an 'A' level talent like Jakob/Cheptegei.

Its run too infrequently, thats why nobody has gotten near it. Hicham ran 7:23 in his first crack at it with subpar pacing. Bekele never took a real shot at it, running 7:25 with almost all of it coming in that final 1,000.

Its certainly a strong record, but being an off distance has shielded it from being broken.

It’s not. I’ve done extensive analysis on this one. 3:26.00 is worth 7:19 and change.

No records are unbeatable. Records are to be beaten.They all will go down sooner or later 🧙‍♂️🇸🇪😎🧙‍♂️🇸🇪

El Guerrouj has run 7:23.09 in his one and only real attempt to run fast at the distance. The splits were far from perfect so he probably could have run something like 7:21-7:22 on this day. Throughout his career he has run almost solely the 1500m, his PB is 3:26.00.

How can you seriously state 7:20 = 3:25 ?

3000m WR is stronger than 1500m WR. By how much? By factor of 1,003.

1,003 is the difference on how much 100th place in the all time top list in 3000m differs from 100th place in the all time top list in 1500m compared to the respective WRs.

If you divide 3:26.00 by 1,003 you get 3:25,38. Sounds about right to me.

You that are speaking about the record of the 3000m, you are repeating exactly what I was writing for years. Komen also didn't have a good longevity.

And if we follow the same system of calculation - the top 100th place vs 1st place in the all time list - it would indicate that 5000m WR is even a little stronger than 3000m WR and also than 1500m WR.

According to such calculation 12:35.36 is worth 7:20.24 and 3:25.20

So yeah, Jakobs best chance is still in the 1500m.

Stronger by what? by an objective analysis or by your own feelings?

For now see if Jacob can becomes at least a little bit dominant in the dedicated distances then we can speak of record. He is at his top form this year, but comparing the speed in the tracks of today has nothing to do with the speed in tracks of 25 or 35 years ago.

Can you read? I just provided the calculation method two posts above.

The 3000m is contested less often than the 1500m meaning that the 100th 1500m time is most likely a lot stronger than the 100th 3000m. Same holds for 5000m where pure time trials are very rare

Jakob didn´t run an outdoor 1500m before the Worlds. Pretty difficult to run fast races when you aren´t racing.

His first 1500m this year was an indoor WR!

He said after the disappointing WC 1500m final that he is running faster than ever.

I suppose that means he is running his reps faster at unchanged effort, fore example the 1000m reps which the Ingebrigtsens run at lactate number 3.1-3.2.

Some few years ago Jakob reportedly ran these 1000m reps in just under 2:45. I suspect he is running close to 2.40 now which is bad news for his competitors since this pace converts to a HM in under 58.

And how does this make it easier to break the record exactly? A record is what it is for many different reasons. In order to break the 3000m WR you have to specifically train for it, which many elites are not willing to do, which is a part of what makes the record strong.

For example, solving 3 Rubik's cubes while juggling is a very rare sport. And yet once you find out that the world record is 4:31, you can only imagine how much dedication, time and skill it would require to break the record. Probably would deter you from even trying, which makes the record strong.

There are enough races and athletes in 5000m. 12:35 is an insane WR and Jakob, even if he would improve 10s on his PB, would still be 3 seconds behind.

Jakob might be running the 3000m in DL Monaco August 10? He hasn´t been announced as a participant but I´m sure he had got an invitation.

This year there is no 1500m men in Monaco but a 1000m and a 3000m!