This isn't rocket science. When Kerr races JI, he faces a dilemma: If Kerr runs the first 1020 slowly enough to have a kick left, he ends up as he did in Tokyo -- too far behind JI to catch him; but if Kerr runs the first 1020 fast enough to stay closer to JI, he will end up too tired to run the final 480 fast enough to catch JI.
Kerr has two choices, neither attractive: Too far behind, or too pooped to pop.
I mean fit Kerr is very good at running a quick last 350-500 meters. His best scenario is a fast race from the gun because tactically/physically he is not a shifter. So unless he's leading or very aggressive he is going to be wasting energy and falling back and then surging if the pace isn't stringing out the field. Tokyo worked great for him because it was fast enough that he just went hard once it was time to. Maybe he waited a little too long given Tim's constraints with his hamstring. He can finish like a train so if it's a 3:32 or faster race go outside in lane 2 with 475-500m to go and get as close to the leaders as possible before tucking in. Try to outkick Jakob or Tim who don't have a crazy fast last 100 meters. If it's a slower race either take the lead and hold people off surging hard with 350 to go and holding to the finish. Or if stuck in the pack, accept that position and make a big move at 450 to get the lead and then try to hold it to the finish. I don't think waiting until 150 like a Hocker suits him. I don't think controlling from 650-700 out like Tim or Jakob would do is his best move either. It's the hard, extended finish with ideally not much jockeying in the pack beforehand.
Kerr is totally a shifter, what are you talking about? He ran 3:40 to win the British Champs last year after hitting 800 in 2:05. His last lap was a 51. That type of race is his best scenario. The hard extended finish a la El Guerrouj is Ingebrigtsen’s forte, not Kerr’s.
It’s also kind of insane to clump Cheruiyot in with Ingebrigtsen when talking about closing speed. Cheruiyot has legit 800 chops. He’s way ahead of Ingebrigtsen (and also Kerr, incidentally) in that department. We don’t see crazy kicks from him because he’s usually running super fast times and already has the win in the bag before the final straight, but I wouldn’t doubt his closing speed when he’s healthy.
You don’t get it. He can run a sustained, really fast lap or 300. Shifting as I’m describing is a small surge to improve your position throughout a race or blow past someone the last 150 with a burst. Manzano has it, Hocker has it, Wightman has it, Coe had it, Manangoi had it, Lewandowski had it, Kerr has to get going and then he’s flat-out. Even in that race Kerr has to really build up his speed from 300m out and it takes more than 100 meters to get past Hayward. He’s got a huge engine but he’s best served attack from a long way out as opposed to waiting for the last 100.
As for Tim he’s improved his finishing speed, but there’s a reason Manangoi used to kick him down in the big races. He can pick it up marginally the last 100 to maybe 13.1, 13.2 but I don’t see him running a low-mid 12s which is why he wouldn’t let a race dawdle. Same with Jakob.
You don’t get it. He can run a sustained, really fast lap or 300. Shifting as I’m describing is a small surge to improve your position throughout a race or blow past someone the last 150 with a burst. Manzano has it, Hocker has it, Wightman has it, Coe had it, Manangoi had it, Lewandowski had it, Kerr has to get going and then he’s flat-out. Even in that race Kerr has to really build up his speed from 300m out and it takes more than 100 meters to get past Hayward. He’s got a huge engine but he’s best served attack from a long way out as opposed to waiting for the last 100.
In the race I mentioned, Kerr puts in a burst to hold off Wightman with less than 100 to go. Unless I’ve misunderstood you, he seems to fit your definition of a shifter. Regardless, I think you’re wrong about his ideal scenario. A slower race suits Kerr much better than a fast one when it comes to beating Ingebrigtsen.
Manangoi used to kick Cheruiyot down because he drafted off him the entire race and was a faster 1500 runner anyway. Maybe he had better speed as well, but I think you are massively underrating Cheruiyot here.
In the race I mentioned, Kerr puts in a burst to hold off Wightman with less than 100 to go. Unless I’ve misunderstood you, he seems to fit your definition of a shifter. Regardless, I think you’re wrong about his ideal scenario. A slower race suits Kerr much better than a fast one when it comes to beating Ingebrigtsen.
Manangoi used to kick Cheruiyot down because he drafted off him the entire race and was a faster 1500 runner anyway. Maybe he had better speed as well, but I think you are massively underrating Cheruiyot here.
Don’t know how you can watch that race and believe that. Kerr holds off Wightman who puts in a surge with 100 to go to get next to him but can’t stay at that gear to pass him for the win. Kerr maintains his speed enough that Wightman can’t pass him. He’s basically the El Guerrouj to Wightmans Lagat in that race.
Yes a slower race suits Kerr in the sense that he can run a really fast last 400. That doesn’t mean he’s a shifter it means he has a huge engine and has good overall speed. When I’m talking about shifters, I was describing guys that can shift speeds quickly not necessarily dramatically. Kerr can do the latter but he takes 100 meters to get up to speed.
Manangoi didn’t have better “speed” he could change speeds quicker and get to a faster gear at the end of races than Tim. It’s why Cole Hocker beat Centro last year despite them both being in 3:32ish shape. And also why Silas Kiplagat who was not a shifter often got ran out of medals.
In the race I mentioned, Kerr puts in a burst to hold off Wightman with less than 100 to go. Unless I’ve misunderstood you, he seems to fit your definition of a shifter. Regardless, I think you’re wrong about his ideal scenario. A slower race suits Kerr much better than a fast one when it comes to beating Ingebrigtsen.
Manangoi used to kick Cheruiyot down because he drafted off him the entire race and was a faster 1500 runner anyway. Maybe he had better speed as well, but I think you are massively underrating Cheruiyot here.
Don’t know how you can watch that race and believe that. Kerr holds off Wightman who puts in a surge with 100 to go to get next to him but can’t stay at that gear to pass him for the win. Kerr maintains his speed enough that Wightman can’t pass him. He’s basically the El Guerrouj to Wightmans Lagat in that race.
Yes a slower race suits Kerr in the sense that he can run a really fast last 400. That doesn’t mean he’s a shifter it means he has a huge engine and has good overall speed. When I’m talking about shifters, I was describing guys that can shift speeds quickly not necessarily dramatically. Kerr can do the latter but he takes 100 meters to get up to speed.
Manangoi didn’t have better “speed” he could change speeds quicker and get to a faster gear at the end of races than Tim. It’s why Cole Hocker beat Centro last year despite them both being in 3:32ish shape. And also why Silas Kiplagat who was not a shifter often got ran out of medals.
To me it looks like Kerr accelerates as Wightman pulls up alongside him. Hutchings even says “Kerr will need another kick now because here comes Wightman,” but I guess it’s not entirely clear who is doing the surging.
If Kerr doesn’t meet your definition of a shifter that’s fine (and for what it’s worth, I think it’s a fair definition, though I obviously had a different one in mind when I replied). It’s not relevant to the larger point which is that Kerr is better suited to a slow race.
I don’t want to quibble over semantics. Speed was a poor word to use because it is ambiguous. The point I was trying to make is that there is a lot more to the outcome of those races than just Manangoi being a shifter.
Don’t know how you can watch that race and believe that. Kerr holds off Wightman who puts in a surge with 100 to go to get next to him but can’t stay at that gear to pass him for the win. Kerr maintains his speed enough that Wightman can’t pass him. He’s basically the El Guerrouj to Wightmans Lagat in that race.
Yes a slower race suits Kerr in the sense that he can run a really fast last 400. That doesn’t mean he’s a shifter it means he has a huge engine and has good overall speed. When I’m talking about shifters, I was describing guys that can shift speeds quickly not necessarily dramatically. Kerr can do the latter but he takes 100 meters to get up to speed.
Manangoi didn’t have better “speed” he could change speeds quicker and get to a faster gear at the end of races than Tim. It’s why Cole Hocker beat Centro last year despite them both being in 3:32ish shape. And also why Silas Kiplagat who was not a shifter often got ran out of medals.
To me it looks like Kerr accelerates as Wightman pulls up alongside him. Hutchings even says “Kerr will need another kick now because here comes Wightman,” but I guess it’s not entirely clear who is doing the surging.
If Kerr doesn’t meet your definition of a shifter that’s fine (and for what it’s worth, I think it’s a fair definition, though I obviously had a different one in mind when I replied). It’s not relevant to the larger point which is that Kerr is better suited to a slow race.
I don’t want to quibble over semantics. Speed was a poor word to use because it is ambiguous. The point I was trying to make is that there is a lot more to the outcome of those races than just Manangoi being a shifter.
Perhaps we should forget about last years race when Kerr and Wightman now have raced each other some few days ago.
At this moment Wightman is clearly the faster runner.
And since Wightman lost with almost 4 seconds to Jakob in the dream mile DL Bislett 2022 (despite having perfect pacing all through) it is very unlikely that Kerr " would have taken down the Norwegian wonderboy" in the same dream mile.
I think Kerr needs a miracle if he wants to follow up on his bronze from last years Olympic 1500m final in the Worlds in Eugene.
To me it looks like Kerr accelerates as Wightman pulls up alongside him. Hutchings even says “Kerr will need another kick now because here comes Wightman,” but I guess it’s not entirely clear who is doing the surging.
If Kerr doesn’t meet your definition of a shifter that’s fine (and for what it’s worth, I think it’s a fair definition, though I obviously had a different one in mind when I replied). It’s not relevant to the larger point which is that Kerr is better suited to a slow race.
I don’t want to quibble over semantics. Speed was a poor word to use because it is ambiguous. The point I was trying to make is that there is a lot more to the outcome of those races than just Manangoi being a shifter.
Perhaps we should forget about last years race when Kerr and Wightman now have raced each other some few days ago.
At this moment Wightman is clearly the faster runner.
And since Wightman lost with almost 4 seconds to Jakob in the dream mile DL Bislett 2022 (despite having perfect pacing all through) it is very unlikely that Kerr " would have taken down the Norwegian wonderboy" in the same dream mile.
I think Kerr needs a miracle if he wants to follow up on his bronze from last years Olympic 1500m final in the Worlds in Eugene.
One thing to consider - Kerr lost handily to Ollie at Milrose in 3.52 or so - then less than a month later ran 3.48 off a 1.55/56 first 800. I think he can whip himself into shape quickly and remember obviously while world should be number 1 priority with commie games coming up he might be delaying things. Non-Brit’s wouldn’t understand but these champs take on something extra given you run for country rather than uk. I can see Kerr running sun 3.30 again if that is what happens at worlds - should be good for a medal.
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