Realistically, how much mileage is required to go sub 4? I feel that the right person can do it on 40-60.
Going sub 4 is really much more about being a 1:50 800 runner that has aerobic training versus being a 1:58 guy who runs 100 miles a week.
Sounds right
50-60mpw is plenty. 25 isn't. There were plenty of 1:50 800/1500m guys but they ended up being 4:05/9:00 guys. Now it shows up a lot more in the 2 mile (i.e. all those 415 guys running 910 3200s) but a few seconds here and there are up. Then as other people suggest through in opportunity. I went to school with a 4:12 guy. He ran like 2 serious races all year and need (i.e. this 2 races were the only ones he didn't win by like 5s). Significantly less kids. None of them by themselves explain it. But they all give a few seconds to help explain why guys are now running 3:58 instead of 4:08.
I would be curious to know if there is more middle school track now also. It feels like a lot of the stars are talking about 7th and 8th grade times while most of our first races were after getting cut....
Talent is no longer stuck being coached by teacher Joe Schmoe seeking to pick up a few extra grand to supplement their lousy teaching salary. Also, the internet enables that talent to be easily coached by someone anywhere on the planet.
The shoes are worth a few seconds. So all this 4:03-06 guys from those decades would have a shot to dip under.