Yeah, pretty much. This is probably he most random sub 4 ever. 4:08 down to 3:59 as a junior's pretty insane. I wouldn't say it was completely out of nowhere, he's been running for a while, he was a 16:30's guy in 7th grade. Still, he didn't even break 4:20 last year in the 1600, so this is a pretty crazy progression.
When the lead guys let Aaron Sahlman pace the 3rd lap I thought all hope at sub 4 was lost, and as I had guessed they came through at ~3:03. Didn't think I'd see a Daschbach-esque 56sec close from any of those guys, but I guess I had forgotten about Birnbaum's finish at Arcadia. Really impressive stuff. Surprised by Kipyego as well. Hopefully Bergen and Donahue get another chance, I'm really routing for those guys.
Kipyego and Sahlman have it for sure next year, throw them into the list with the Youngs, Heidisch, Caudillo and Hansen, if those two guys don't already do it this year. Class of '23 is easily the greatest ever at this point, and It's not even close. Pretty hard to convince yourself that the shoe's don't have a large effect at this point, though.
It’s definitely something, maybe shoes.
My old Mizunos are dying, maybe I should get some of the good ones. If they are faster, likely they are better on your feet, too.
Will Sumner is smashing it in Zoom 400s, which are $50-60 online.
Pretty hard to convince yourself that the shoe's don't have a large effect at this point, though.
It's pretty easy if you use your critical thinking skills. Let's say, for example, someone runs 4:10 wearing "super" spikes. Then, a month later, wearing the same spikes, they run 4:07. Then, a couple months after that, they run 3:59. If the spikes are constant, but the times are getting faster, it's not the spikes.
It’s the spikes, whose effects can be traced over time given an adequate sample size.
part of me really wishes that Martin and Sahlman(and Burns too) decided to race the mile. Don’t think they would’ve let the pace lag and there would be numerous sub 4s(just judging off the ppl that ran 4:00 and 4:01 after a 3:03 first 1200)
Most guys in Olympic & W.C. 1500m semi-finals and finals are about 47.xx of 48.xx 400m guys.
I don't think there's much evidence for this assertion.
Of the guys we have some what legit 400m intimes, most are in that 47.5-48.5 range. A few like Coe had legit sub 47 speed. Ovett had a 47.5 as a 19 year old. Guys like cram and webb supposedly split 47.5 in relays. And lots of high kids show up with low 49 type times.
If you found some way to get those 331 guys all to line up and race a serious 400m, I would be shocked if any are much slower than 49. But I would also be shocked if anyone broke 47. Once you start getting down to the low 48s you are talking about some serious speed.
Back in they day guys ran more off distance and weird stuff. But these days few even race the 800m. El G never did. Centro ran a mid 1:44. Jacob Ingrebstein couldnt break 147 this year but he also hasn't broken 3:34 either this year. He would be my best bet for a guy who runs a 49.2 instead of a 48.8.
Pretty hard to convince yourself that the shoe's don't have a large effect at this point, though.
It's pretty easy if you use your critical thinking skills. Let's say, for example, someone runs 4:10 wearing "super" spikes. Then, a month later, wearing the same spikes, they run 4:07. Then, a couple months after that, they run 3:59. If the spikes are constant, but the times are getting faster, it's not the spikes.
Your logic ignores the obvious broader trends. Most things are equal year over year. Kids are not magically training MUCH better than they were three years ago, or even 10 years ago. Kids are not more talented. the one thing that has changed in the world of running is shoe technology. There has been clear improvement (to the tune of a few seconds per mile). World Records in everything 5k and over (track and road). The shoes are obviously worth 1 second every 500-600 meters depending on the runner.
why hasn’t the mile or 1500 record been broken? I’m guessing the shoes don’t make up for the decrease in drug use. Or El G is just so amazingly talented that he would have scared 3:40 in these shoes. Probably a little of column A / a little of column B.
What an amazing race.Birnbaum from Custer hs?As a Native who lives on my Reservation, I’m no fan of A white kid from Custer. But, that kids got more guts than Custer or the whole Calvary that got whipped by my race on the battlefield. Great race kid, you broke 4 !
What an amazing race.Birnbaum from Custer hs?As a Native who lives on my Reservation, I’m no fan of A white kid from Custer. But, that kids got more guts than Custer or the whole Calvary that got whipped by my race on the battlefield. Great race kid, you broke 4 !
Noticed in his post race interview that he’s TURNING 17 this week. A 16 year old American broke 4! Only other 16 year old I know of doing it is Jakob as a younger 16 year old
I don't think there's much evidence for this assertion.
Of the guys we have some what legit 400m intimes, most are in that 47.5-48.5 range. A few like Coe had legit sub 47 speed. Ovett had a 47.5 as a 19 year old. Guys like cram and webb supposedly split 47.5 in relays. And lots of high kids show up with low 49 type times.
If you found some way to get those 331 guys all to line up and race a serious 400m, I would be shocked if any are much slower than 49. But I would also be shocked if anyone broke 47. Once you start getting down to the low 48s you are talking about some serious speed.
Back in they day guys ran more off distance and weird stuff. But these days few even race the 800m. El G never did. Centro ran a mid 1:44. Jacob Ingrebstein couldnt break 147 this year but he also hasn't broken 3:34 either this year. He would be my best bet for a guy who runs a 49.2 instead of a 48.8.
No. Just no. Coe and Cram (and Mahkloufi types) are the rarity at the 1500, not the norm. It seems you clearly don’t understand how fast 47.xx FAT is. this is not the same as a relay split. Very, very few milers in history (let alone right now) have run under 48 seconds or even could, at the peak of their training.
Now, if they focused on it from a young age, many of them may have, but that’s not the case. These athletes are quite specialized. I can’t see any of last year’s Olympic finalists breaking 48, and only a few breaking 49. Jakob likely can’t break 50, and that’s ok, because his lactate threshold and aerobic capacity are straight bonkers.
Have to imagine that within the next 10 years it will always take a sub-4 mile to be a national champion/leading time
Let’s hope it translates to being internationally competitive in 4 years.
Internationally competitive? The US has been a major medal threat in every distance for over ten years now. This isn’t like the 90s where making the final was a huge deal, we take home hardware.
Of the guys we have some what legit 400m intimes, most are in that 47.5-48.5 range. A few like Coe had legit sub 47 speed. Ovett had a 47.5 as a 19 year old. Guys like cram and webb supposedly split 47.5 in relays. And lots of high kids show up with low 49 type times.
If you found some way to get those 331 guys all to line up and race a serious 400m, I would be shocked if any are much slower than 49. But I would also be shocked if anyone broke 47. Once you start getting down to the low 48s you are talking about some serious speed.
Back in they day guys ran more off distance and weird stuff. But these days few even race the 800m. El G never did. Centro ran a mid 1:44. Jacob Ingrebstein couldnt break 147 this year but he also hasn't broken 3:34 either this year. He would be my best bet for a guy who runs a 49.2 instead of a 48.8.
No. Just no. Coe and Cram (and Mahkloufi types) are the rarity at the 1500, not the norm. It seems you clearly don’t understand how fast 47.xx FAT is. this is not the same as a relay split. Very, very few milers in history (let alone right now) have run under 48 seconds or even could, at the peak of their training.
Now, if they focused on it from a young age, many of them may have, but that’s not the case. These athletes are quite specialized. I can’t see any of last year’s Olympic finalists breaking 48, and only a few breaking 49. Jakob likely can’t break 50, and that’s ok, because his lactate threshold and aerobic capacity are straight bonkers.
Coe splits 45.5 (and with a stumble at the exchange)
Just 90 minutes after solo running a 1:44.06, ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5zTzMciyxw&lc=KUP-0dBVTg4pH8RA6g_hbdsh370GZOzC9t5glnQJXQ&feature=inbox) Coe r...
No. Just no. Coe and Cram (and Mahkloufi types) are the rarity at the 1500, not the norm. It seems you clearly don’t understand how fast 47.xx FAT is. this is not the same as a relay split. Very, very few milers in history (let alone right now) have run under 48 seconds or even could, at the peak of their training.
Now, if they focused on it from a young age, many of them may have, but that’s not the case. These athletes are quite specialized. I can’t see any of last year’s Olympic finalists breaking 48, and only a few breaking 49. Jakob likely can’t break 50, and that’s ok, because his lactate threshold and aerobic capacity are straight bonkers.
Coe splits 45.5 (and with a stumble at the exchange)
Does the American get the baton knocked out of his hand or did he just drop it?? Never seen that. Pretty amazing cause it looked like Coe got spiked or something from his teammate to start.
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