Not sure why this comparison is coming up over and over. I guess it's because of the Running Lane race. But we don't see constant threads about Lagat vs Rupp. They were physiologically different types of runner whose best events were different. It is true they overlapped at 5000. That's a distance at which a great 1500 runner can excell; so can a great 10000 runner. Now, it's not as ridiculous as comparing Brazier to Shorter, since they both have decent 5000 PRs, but Rupp was so much better than Lagat at 10000 and up that it's not worth a thread comparing them. Ditto 3000 and down - Lagat is so much better no one's bothered to discuss it.
This debate is similar. (And the physical makeup of the 2 guys may be similar to the 2 mentioned above, also.) You're comparing someone whose best event is probably 1500 or mile to someone whose best events were 5000 to half marathon. Now, I say 'probably' for the youngster since he doesn't seem to race a very wide spectrum of distances. After retirement, maybe we will see he was best suited to something else. My guess (which may not be worth much) is that he IS competing at the ideal distance for his body.
Ritz had a chance to race in peak form over various events. The one caveat I would throw in there is that I don't believe his 10000 PR reflects his fitness at his peak. Keep in mind, his 5000 PR came at a race which was a last-minute decision. He and Al thought there would be a big 10000 with a gang of superstars running fast. That's what the training had been designed for. When that didn't end up happening, they decided on the 5000 which is now lengendary in American running lore.
So, although it is true that Ritz's 5000 PR is objectively better than his 10000, if someone like J Kellog interpolates using his 5000 and HM bests, it would be clear that he should have been capaple of a faster 10000. Why he didn't run one I don't know... But the point still stands: you're comparing a true distance runner with a middle distance runner. Take both of them at 17 or 18 or whatever age - maybe 18-1/2. Over 5000, 10000, and certainly anything longer, Ritz takes it. I don't believe Sahlman even has PRs for any of these. At 800, 1500, or mile, the kid wins. Does Ritz have HS PRs for these mid-D events? Maybe, but they don't come up and nobody talks about them. Sahlman probably wins over 3000. It could be close there.
Wouldn't it be more relevant to compare any of the NP crowd to Webb? Why aren't threads on Colin v. Alan?
I think it’s too early to conclude that Sahlman is a miler and not ultimately a 3k/5k runner. I believe that Rupp’s 13:37 could have gone down if that were Sahlman’s focus, instead of the mile. I predict he’ll be running the 5,000 at US Championships by the time he’s 24, and that the 3k might in fact be his ideal distance. More of a Kennedy/Tegenkamp/Ryan Hill/Jager mold than a Bernard Lagat. Though maybe I’m quibbling where there is no real disagreement, since a) Lagat was awfully good at 3k/5k and b) I agree Sahlman leans toward shorter distances than Ritz.
Anyway, Shorter vs. Brazier at 2700 meters, who ya got?
Colin is better overall and probably would’ve beaten Ritz in XC. Gerry Lindgren would’ve beat them both.
Ritz spent his entire senior focused on beating the 5k record. Lex Young — had an injury and still ran 13:43 weeks ago. Ritz ran his time in June.
In any case, Ritz/Webb ushered in a new era of distance running. What I will say, and this is not bc of super shoes but just due to era & expectations is this: if you put Ritz on Newbury Park, he’s their best runner at 5k. But in terms of who actually ran better in HS, it’s Colin.
I still think GF was the most talented distance runner we’ve ever seen — but unfortunately, he maxed out on both ability AND fragility.
Lex wasn’t hurt earlier this year. It was the other L.Y that was hurt. And he maybe the one breaking the records next year.
True. My mistake. Leo was both hurt and then also got sick later.
I think Sahlman will be more of a Jakob/ El-G type runner. He's got enough foot speed to run to be world-class in the mile with equal or slightly less equivalent endurance to run the 3k-5k without a significant drop off in performance.
Not sure why this comparison is coming up over and over. I guess it's because of the Running Lane race. But we don't see constant threads about Lagat vs Rupp. They were physiologically different types of runner whose best events were different. It is true they overlapped at 5000. That's a distance at which a great 1500 runner can excell; so can a great 10000 runner. Now, it's not as ridiculous as comparing Brazier to Shorter, since they both have decent 5000 PRs, but Rupp was so much better than Lagat at 10000 and up that it's not worth a thread comparing them. Ditto 3000 and down - Lagat is so much better no one's bothered to discuss it.
This debate is similar. (And the physical makeup of the 2 guys may be similar to the 2 mentioned above, also.) You're comparing someone whose best event is probably 1500 or mile to someone whose best events were 5000 to half marathon. Now, I say 'probably' for the youngster since he doesn't seem to race a very wide spectrum of distances. After retirement, maybe we will see he was best suited to something else. My guess (which may not be worth much) is that he IS competing at the ideal distance for his body.
Ritz had a chance to race in peak form over various events. The one caveat I would throw in there is that I don't believe his 10000 PR reflects his fitness at his peak. Keep in mind, his 5000 PR came at a race which was a last-minute decision. He and Al thought there would be a big 10000 with a gang of superstars running fast. That's what the training had been designed for. When that didn't end up happening, they decided on the 5000 which is now lengendary in American running lore.
So, although it is true that Ritz's 5000 PR is objectively better than his 10000, if someone like J Kellog interpolates using his 5000 and HM bests, it would be clear that he should have been capaple of a faster 10000. Why he didn't run one I don't know... But the point still stands: you're comparing a true distance runner with a middle distance runner. Take both of them at 17 or 18 or whatever age - maybe 18-1/2. Over 5000, 10000, and certainly anything longer, Ritz takes it. I don't believe Sahlman even has PRs for any of these. At 800, 1500, or mile, the kid wins. Does Ritz have HS PRs for these mid-D events? Maybe, but they don't come up and nobody talks about them. Sahlman probably wins over 3000. It could be close there.
Wouldn't it be more relevant to compare any of the NP crowd to Webb? Why aren't threads on Colin v. Alan?
I think it’s too early to conclude that Sahlman is a miler and not ultimately a 3k/5k runner. I believe that Rupp’s 13:37 could have gone down if that were Sahlman’s focus, instead of the mile. I predict he’ll be running the 5,000 at US Championships by the time he’s 24, and that the 3k might in fact be his ideal distance. More of a Kennedy/Tegenkamp/Ryan Hill/Jager mold than a Bernard Lagat. Though maybe I’m quibbling where there is no real disagreement, since a) Lagat was awfully good at 3k/5k and b) I agree Sahlman leans toward shorter distances than Ritz.
Anyway, Shorter vs. Brazier at 2700 meters, who ya got?
You may be right. This kid may be best at 3000/2mile just like Komen was. Maybe 5k is the future. It is true that Lagat spent years at 1500 (and was great) before he seemed to be in more longer races. I'm not so sure aout the US HS 5000 record, though. How close he is to that is hard to say. It is very safe to say that Chapa's 10k record is safe. Even Rupp missed it, and we know now that was physiologically probably his best event.
I believe it is safe to say that something like 10k is not likely to be his ideal distance, much less longer than that. I'll confidently say the same of Teare and Hocker. Shorter, Rupp, and Ritz were not great mid-D runners - and were not in high school. Hall actually tried to be a teen mile star, and wasn't close to anyone we're disussing now. There truly are physical differences, so you can get apples to oranges if you're comparing guys whose ranges are too dissimilar. That was the point of the post you're quoting.
So how does he stack up to those whom we know - through years of trying different events - were best at something 5k or less? Ryun and Webb come to mind. I don't think he's even with either of them.
I think Frank beats Donny over 2700. I think it's a little longer than the break-even point. How about just a 2k?
Didn't Ritzenhein run 8:41 his junior year in North Carolina?
Also, call me when Sahlman medals at World Cross.
It is not a given C. Sahlman EVER Medals at World Cross Country
Actually, it is a given that he won't. Isn't the Men's Junior race 8k? Even at something like 6k, which would be more in his wheelhouse, can he really stack up against the latest Ethiopians? Guys like Haile, KB, and Gebrihewit seem to show up in that event. I can't name the next wave of them, but it is safe to say that some future stars will emerge.
It is not a given C. Sahlman EVER Medals at World Cross Country
Actually, it is a given that he won't. Isn't the Men's Junior race 8k? Even at something like 6k, which would be more in his wheelhouse, can he really stack up against the latest Ethiopians? Guys like Haile, KB, and Gebrihewit seem to show up in that event. I can't name the next wave of them, but it is safe to say that some future stars will emerge.
It’s not a given that he won’t. All he needs is adverse conditions.
ritz & teg finished 3rd & 5th in a mudfest
true finished 6th in the senior race in a mudfest
in a nice weather race, ritz & teg & true would all finish out of the top 15.
I think Frank beats Donny over 2700. I think it's a little longer than the break-even point. How about just a 2k?
It’s a funny tangent I’m going off on, considering it was first introduced to the thread as an example of something that would be ludicrous to discuss—but I find these hypotheticals to be a fanciful diversion and if it’s fun for me, heck, why not go into it.
Brazier ran 3:35.85 with closing 400/300/200 splits of 52/38/25 and bits. I’m not gonna overreact and say this means he could’ve run sub-3:30 that day (going through 1200 in 2:48 would probably have put him in a world of hurt), but I see no reason to doubt he was capable of 3:33.0, maybe faster. His mile PR is 3:59.30, but that was run indoors on December 9th, 2017 when he was 20 years old, and he won that race. He has no real PBs listed for distances over the mile, but he ran 15:25 for 5k XC as a high school senior.
What would Brazier’s 1500-mile-2k-3k-5k times have looked like in July of 2020? Maybe 3:32 - 3:52 - 4:58 - big ? - big ?
Could Brazier have run sub-8 for 3k? I think yes, absolutely. I’m not sure anyone has ever been capable of 3:35.85 with a 38” final 300 and not been capable of sub-8 for 3k. 7:55 (4:14.8 mile pace) would be a pretty modest expectation. Sub-7:50 (4:12 mile pace) is not unreasonable.
Shorter’s 3k PR was 7:51.4 from Oslo 1972. He was 6th in that race, 7 seconds behind Pre who won in 7:44.2. He also ran a 7:55.4 in Stuttgart in 1975 (4th place), and his 2 mile PR was 8:26i, with a couple more 8:27i performances to his name. His 5k PB was 13:26.6. He was a grinder/shuffler not known to have any kick or raw speed. He has no PBs listed for distances under 3k.
Could Shorter have broken 4 for the mile? I’m fairly certain he could have, but we’re talking 3:58, not 3:55. In modern footwear maybe he pops a 3:56. Could he have broken 5 for 2k? I’m not seeing any reason to believe he could.
Brazier wins at 2k. There’s no way Shorter runs away from Brazier or outkicks him at that distance. I believe it’s more likely that 2020 Brazier could sit on Shorter for 7 laps of a 3k and outkick him than it is that Shorter would win at 2k. That said, I’d give Shorter the edge at 3k. The break-even point is somewhere between 5.5 and 7.5 laps. I’m inclined to stick with 6.75 laps (2700m).
Coincidentally, we can actually circle back to Colin Sahlman. Prime Shorter v. 2020 Brazier v. current Sahlman at 2700 (paced to 1200 in 3:08 by Erik Sowinski) would be a heck of a race.
Not sure why this comparison is coming up over and over. I guess it's because of the Running Lane race. But we don't see constant threads about Lagat vs Rupp. They were physiologically different types of runner whose best events were different. It is true they overlapped at 5000. That's a distance at which a great 1500 runner can excell; so can a great 10000 runner. Now, it's not as ridiculous as comparing Brazier to Shorter, since they both have decent 5000 PRs, but Rupp was so much better than Lagat at 10000 and up that it's not worth a thread comparing them. Ditto 3000 and down - Lagat is so much better no one's bothered to discuss it.
This debate is similar. (And the physical makeup of the 2 guys may be similar to the 2 mentioned above, also.) You're comparing someone whose best event is probably 1500 or mile to someone whose best events were 5000 to half marathon. Now, I say 'probably' for the youngster since he doesn't seem to race a very wide spectrum of distances. After retirement, maybe we will see he was best suited to something else. My guess (which may not be worth much) is that he IS competing at the ideal distance for his body.
Ritz had a chance to race in peak form over various events. The one caveat I would throw in there is that I don't believe his 10000 PR reflects his fitness at his peak. Keep in mind, his 5000 PR came at a race which was a last-minute decision. He and Al thought there would be a big 10000 with a gang of superstars running fast. That's what the training had been designed for. When that didn't end up happening, they decided on the 5000 which is now lengendary in American running lore.
So, although it is true that Ritz's 5000 PR is objectively better than his 10000, if someone like J Kellog interpolates using his 5000 and HM bests, it would be clear that he should have been capaple of a faster 10000. Why he didn't run one I don't know... But the point still stands: you're comparing a true distance runner with a middle distance runner. Take both of them at 17 or 18 or whatever age - maybe 18-1/2. Over 5000, 10000, and certainly anything longer, Ritz takes it. I don't believe Sahlman even has PRs for any of these. At 800, 1500, or mile, the kid wins. Does Ritz have HS PRs for these mid-D events? Maybe, but they don't come up and nobody talks about them. Sahlman probably wins over 3000. It could be close there.
Wouldn't it be more relevant to compare any of the NP crowd to Webb? Why aren't threads on Colin v. Alan?
someone link John Kellog's time conversion from Ritz at the world championships in 09 i think, he had a good race in the heat and humidity that certainly converts to something impressive.