What were you doing app. 15 years ago when Fed Inverted Yield Curve by raising short term interest rates? Where were you in 1978 when Fed raised short term rate, 1978 and Inverted Yield Curve?
Federal Reserve Board control O.F.F. Rate & Discount Rate.
Yes they control the overnite fed funds rate via open market operations but in no way so they flip a switch to "invert a yield curve".
The inversion of a yield curve is a broader market reaction to current/future credit risk decisioning, not something J Pow says in Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
But housing is still greatly needed so I wouldn’t expect a crash.
biggest bubbles are tech stocks, meme stocks & crypto, not housing
Do you not understand that everything is connected? When people see their paper wealths in cryptos and stocks increase, they pay more for houses becase they're more confident that they can afford the monthly payments.
You are completely clueless. Nowadays banks need verification of employment and income going several years back before issuing a mortgage. Has little to do with what the borrower ‘thinks they can afford’ and everything to do with what the bank can CONFIRM they can afford so there will be no surge of defaults abating market value.
Paying more upfront to qualify is a different story and there may or may not be a slight decline if folks are simply not willing to fork over as much cash….the problem with that is low inventory and the fact that EVERYONE NEEDS A PLACE TO LIVE.
Keep raising O.F.F. and yield curve will be inverted.
Fed purchase of 30 year U.S. Treasury Treasury Bonds may contribute to Inverted Yield Curve.
Bonds and bond yields have an inverse relationship. Fed purchasing Treasuries on open market may and often lowers yields of 30 year Treasury bonds.
Fed can Invert the Yield Curve. Fed continues to raise O.F.F. Rate, raise Discount Rate and buy back 10 year U.S. Notes and buy back 10 year U.S. Treasuries, Yield Curve will be inverted, guaranteed.
It took Fed Chair Paul Volcker raising Overnight Fed Funds Rate to greater than 16% to Invert the Yield Curve.
Right. There's a tidal wave of houses for sale as soon as houses go back to their normal state of being an expense. Because appreciation is one of the main, if not the number 1, "feature" that is expected of houses nowadays. When the feature is gone then houses go through a repricing to reflect their fundamental value.
Where did you get that nonsense from? The number 1 feature of home ownership is having a roof over your head….one that YOU own and your not just throwing money down the drain on, can make decisions about without being subject to rising rent prices, being forced to move when the landlord decides to sell (or just decides he doesn’t like your face). Only beta boys rent, too. Just ask your guy Trump.
I'm not going to repeat all of what I've explained in other threads. The way in which somebody in the market to buy a house thinks about what is a "fair" price for a given house is influenced by expectations of where its price will go in the short and medium term. People would not pay half the price of what they currently do if they didn't expect houses to go up 20-25%/year for the foreseeable future.
I'm not going to repeat all of what I've explained in other threads. The way in which somebody in the market to buy a house thinks about what is a "fair" price for a given house is influenced by expectations of where its price will go in the short and medium term. People would not pay half the price of what they currently do if they didn't expect houses to go up 20-25%/year for the foreseeable future.
I took a few courses in tax graduate school in case we were interested in taking the CFP (i am not a CFP, I am a CPA)and i remember the professor, a CFP, basically told our class "buy a home when you're ready." I took it to mean not to time the market. So bottom line is to buy something you're happy to own for at least 5 years that's not stretching yourself too far financially, and you'll very likely come out ahead whatever the heck is going on the short to medium-term. personally i ended up buying ~5 years ago at 3.75%, home has since gone up about 40%, refinanced the remaining debt in 2021 to 2.875% 30 yr fixed.
influenced by expectations of where its price will go in the short and medium term. People would not pay half the price of what they currently do if they didn't expect houses to go up 20-25%/year for the foreseeable future.
I don't think these buyers you speak of expect them to keep going up at anything close to that rate. These buyers most likely just wanted to get in before rates go up. now that rates HAVE gone up, (just my opinion) buyer selection will be better. you may see way fewer bidding wars, lower appreciation
I'm not going to repeat all of what I've explained in other threads. The way in which somebody in the market to buy a house thinks about what is a "fair" price for a given house is influenced by expectations of where its price will go in the short and medium term. People would not pay half the price of what they currently do if they didn't expect houses to go up 20-25%/year for the foreseeable future.
Paid 8.75% on my first home so I am getting a kick out of doomsayers screaming that 4.75% indicates a complete meltdown of the housing sector.
These guys posting their completely ignorant thoughts on the housing market are just trying to talk themselves into believing they’ll get another crack at a ‘good’ deal.
I bought in Jan 2021. Basically the lowest point on that graph. At least I did something right. Got a steal on the house too, because of some unusual circumstances.
I'm not going to repeat all of what I've explained in other threads. The way in which somebody in the market to buy a house thinks about what is a "fair" price for a given house is influenced by expectations of where its price will go in the short and medium term. People would not pay half the price of what they currently do if they didn't expect houses to go up 20-25%/year for the foreseeable future.
if anyone is expecting a continual escalation of house value of 20-25% each and every year, then they are clueless and deserve whatever comes to them. I expect a steady 5% value increase, am pleased if it exceeds that in a year but have no expectation of unrealistic increase in my homes value to mimic these past couple of years in the immediate future.
I also don't expect my hose value to drop dramatically put won't fret a plateau in its value.
I was in the (7.8 to 8.3)% range for my first home mortgage, it's been awhile but in U.S., we lived with 9.xx% mortgages decades ago and we did not act as if the sky was falling.
The rise since covid was spurred on by interest rates and sustained with increased savings and stock/crypto investment performance, PLUS the fear of missing out on grabbing a utility while it’s still available. People think if they wait too long they won’t be able to afford the place they were looking at on Zillow that’s 90% good enough for them.
Rates up, people can afford less home. Lower demand, sellers will sell for less. I feel like this is gonna be a fairly quick regression back to the usual expected increase. Then supply chains will get back to normal and a glut of new homes being finished will allow for a small correction. But definitely no -20% crash.
If you are gonna buy a home for yourself, just wait until you actually need it and are gonnna enjoy living there for 5-10 years min. Otherwise just invest in stocks and crypto and stay nimble.
If you are gonna buy a home for yourself, just wait until you actually need it and are gonnna enjoy living there for 5-10 years min. Otherwise just invest in stocks and crypto and stay nimble.
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