Predictions for this weekends mens Millrose Wanamaker Mile

dfbfgh wrote:

Master of LoIIy wrote:

Well I believe that 3:56 would be terrific and beyond expectations. But most likely Romo will manage 3:58 - 3:59 at best. This is a loaded field, small indoor track, lots of shoving.

His 2:20 on the oversized track with one pacer and two runners does not translate to much faster in my book.

Not sure what you have against Mario Garcia Romo. You bashed him on another thread too.

Those IAAF scoring tables are far from perfect. Adam Fogg ran 2:23 in the K a few weeks ago and 3:56 last week. He has run 3:38 outdoors. The K isn't run very often and doesn't translate perfectly to other distances.

I got nothing against the guy, but I don't see a reason why I should rank him higher than other competitors. 2:20 on the oversized track is simply not as good, as you want it to be. Also congrats to Adam Fogg, who has massively improved.

I wish Romo all the best in the race as well.

The scoring tables are not the best indicators of the ability of an individual athlete across different events. Usually an 800/1500m guy will run a better 1000m than a 1500/5000m guy and the 1000m is also rarely run and people will have less experience, not pacing themselves ideally etc.

They are more generalized, based on long term statistics. They also tend to overrate rarely run and indoor events (because there is less depth in the long term compared to e.g. 1500m outdoors)

The points can serve as rough guides, like the other conversion factors and rules of thumb but rarely for precise predictions.

Master of LoIIy wrote:

KAV wrote:

That's not really "just dipping under 4'"....

Well I believe that 3:56 would be terrific and beyond expectations. But most likely Romo will manage 3:58 - 3:59 at best. This is a loaded field, small indoor track, lots of shoving.

His 2:20 on the oversized track with one pacer and two runners does not translate to much faster in my book.

Yawn. His teammates (who are normally behind him) just happened to have run 3'57-58-59...

Take a break....

Wesfly takeover at Milrose

[quote]Okay, one last time. wrote:

Josh Kerr 3:52 Not in the best shape in the field but physically near his peak and a 3:29.05 guy should be able to run 3:35i comparable in his sleep

Ollie Hoare 3:52 Probably in the best shape in the field

Hobbs Kessler 3:52.8 strong shape now and looked easy at 1:29 600 pace

Craig Engels 3:53 Also competitive in domestic fields

Johnny Gregorek 3:53

Henry Wynne 3:53

Samuel Prakel 3:54.2 The above three guys have run too fast before to predict high 3:50s for them

Mario Garcia Romo 3:54.5 because he's quite a bit better than his 3:57 teammate

Colby Alexander 3:54.8

Clayton Murphy 3:56.8 Hasn't realized his mile potential since the injury in trying to double at Trials years ago

Nick Willis 3:58.5 Another sub-4 year

Andrew Coscoran 3:58.84

Master of LoIIy wrote:

dfbfgh wrote:

Not sure what you have against Mario Garcia Romo. You bashed him on another thread too.

Those IAAF scoring tables are far from perfect. Adam Fogg ran 2:23 in the K a few weeks ago and 3:56 last week. He has run 3:38 outdoors. The K isn't run very often and doesn't translate perfectly to other distances.

I got nothing against the guy, but I don't see a reason why I should rank him higher than other competitors. 2:20 on the oversized track is simply not as good, as you want it to be. Also congrats to Adam Fogg, who has massively improved.

I wish Romo all the best in the race as well.

Romo's Ole Miss teammates just ran 3:57-3:58. There's no reason to think Romo is less fit than his college teammates, especially if they sent him to Millrose for a reason. Romo also has a 3:56 indoor PR, so unless the race is tactical I don't see why he couldn't run 3:55.

Master Of Lolly wrote:

cramister wrote:

How is a 3:35 worth 3:57 on a 200 banked track?

IAAF Scoring Table:

3:35.79 1500m outdoors is worth 1164 points

3:52.89 mile outdoors is worth 1164 points

3:39.52 1500m indoors is worth 1164 points

3:57.39 mile indoors is worth 1164 points

2:20.12 1000m indoors is worth 1136 points

3:59.54 mile indoors is worth 1136 points

2:20 1k indoors is not that strong. Cruz Culpepper also ran 2:20 in the same race.

IAAF tables fail at basic conversions, let alone specialty events indoors (1k) or outdoors (mile).

Josh Kerr is talking big, and considering he was doing the same last year and then delivered, I think he'll do it again.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/josh-kerr-people-think-you-can-be-proud-of-bronze-but-i-want-to-dominate-the-world-209qstb8v

I don't think it will be super fast, 3:52-3:53, but he will destroy the field over the last 300.

the macdaddy og yoo wrote:

IAAF tables fail at basic conversions, let alone specialty events indoors (1k) or outdoors (mile).

Well I guess then it is more reliable to just base everything on the macdaddy og yoo opinion.

Some inside information guys… ;)

The 2:20 1k was to get used to the race pace for Millrose…

Also, that 2:20 1k was only the beginning of the workout.

I’m not Mario, btw

romo_5000 wrote:

Some inside information guys… ;)

The 2:20 1k was to get used to the race pace for Millrose…

Also, that 2:20 1k was only the beginning of the workout.

So, he's planning on running 3:45 in Millrose?

Either way, I hope for Mario that 2:20 was more of a practice run, otherwise it's not looking that good.

Normally athletes use distances bellow their main events to get used to the race pace. I don’t think that means that he wants to run at 2:30 pace but that he wants to have the race pace under control…

If it’s fast from the gun, the advantage will go to the front runners, likely Kerr and Ollie. Those that get gapped early will find it next to impossible to catch up to, and pass, the likes of Kerr and Ollie. Off a slow pace, it’ll be anyone’s game and those that stay toward the front, not boxed, will be able to move when the real racing starts. They all have great finishes, but the key will be positioning.

Hoping for a fast pace!!

Hoare 3:50

Kerr 3:50

Engels 3:53

Kessler 3:53

Romo 3:54

Prakel 3:54

Wynne 3:54

Alexander 3:55

Murphy 3:55

Gregorek 3:56

Willis 3:57

Master Of Lolly wrote:

Romo and Garcia will just dip under 4.

3:58 Romo and 3:59 Garcia.

I guess 2:20 1k with a pacer on an oversized track is not worth 3:54 after all...

Mario ran 3:57… why you adding time! Lol

Hahahahha what did you run today?

Also, very accurate your 3:53 Kessler prediction…

Justicier-10k wrote:

Mario ran 3:57… why you adding time! Lol

Hahahahha what did you run today?

Sorry, but 3:57.98 is 3:58.

Nothing to laugh about actually, only a non-runner could think that a 2:20 1k with two people on an oversized track would convert to 3:54 in a loaded field.

And to put your mind to rest, my running days are long gone, but my PB was better than 3:57.98, therefore I do know a thing or two about pace and conversion. Mario will run faster, but not in a loaded indoor race like today.