Bekele is NOT finished, after this little tune-up race in Berlin he's going to be fit as a fiddle for NYC and crush the competition in the hills.
Bekele is NOT finished, after this little tune-up race in Berlin he's going to be fit as a fiddle for NYC and crush the competition in the hills.
I think we can comfortably lay to rest the idea Bekele has a repeat of his 2:01 in him, that run is looking more and more like an outlier and each time his team claim he's in shape he seems to be a mile off.
It's a shame I guess but it's not like there's any doubt Kipchoge is the marathon goat anyway .
Breakfast In Bed wrote:
This is a bit of a side note, but in this age of climate change it looks like September, maybe even early October, is not a good time of year to attempt a world record because the likely warm conditions will slow you down too much. At this point I expect marathons this time of year to exceed 70 degrees and be humid.
I think if a WR is truly your goal then you'd want to try in March/April, or try it during summer in a mild-climate Southern Hemisphere city where it's winter. I even think May at this point would be too hot in most marathons, even if you're far north.
That's now how Climate Change works. You don't automatically assume that the weather in September is going to be warmer. That's why we call it climate change and not Global Warming. Next year it might be cold in Berlin on that day.
spaghettilegs wrote:
Too hot for a WR, look how cold it was 2019 Berlin. If he can still run WR pace for the first half in that heat then he can still run WR on a cooler day.
He wasn't with the lead group though, at halfway he was in roughly 5th pace 12 seconds behind the group. The group was 60:48, Bekele was 61:00. So really I'd say there are a few other guys more likely to break the world record now than Bekele. I'd pick the youngest of the two guys who beat him as the next most likely to run sub 2:03 or better.
The first 5k was covered in 14:22, which works out to about 2:01:15 pace. So they slowed significantly from there even just to the halfway point. When you factor in the heat it's absolutely no surprise everyone blew up... even Kipchoge would have had a rough time imo.
I do hope Bekele runs NYC also just to see what happens. It would take a WR quality performance to take down Mutai's course record which is literally a decade old now. That would be a great target.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
He's 39 years old. Father Time catches up to everyone. He can probably run 2:04-2:09 for 3 years still or even more, and that's insane, but he's not a world-record setter anymore.
By the way, I would LOVE to eat my words there.
This.
Bekele ran 7:30 for 3,000m in 2001, just over 20 years before his 2:06:47. Never mind the fact that he’s definitely good for faster with more reasonable, non-WR-chase pacing, that kind of longevity at that elite of a level must be totally unprecedented. I guess it’s easier when you’re the most talented distance runner we have ever seen.
Bekele has been putting up 1220+ point performances on the IAAF tables for longer than the War in Afghanistan - astounding.
It is truly amazing. Nice context with the Afghanistan comparison.
In my opinion, the first jaw-dropping marathon world best was Belayneth Dinsamo's 2:06:50 in 1988. Bekele just beat that (by 3 seconds) at age 39 and is considered "washed up".
He wasn't with the lead group wrote:
spaghettilegs wrote:
Too hot for a WR, look how cold it was 2019 Berlin. If he can still run WR pace for the first half in that heat then he can still run WR on a cooler day.
He wasn't with the lead group though, at halfway he was in roughly 5th pace 12 seconds behind the group. The group was 60:48, Bekele was 61:00. So really I'd say there are a few other guys more likely to break the world record now than Bekele. I'd pick the youngest of the two guys who beat him as the next most likely to run sub 2:03 or better.
the lead group went out too fast. bekele wanted 61:00 to negative split the marathon which would of been too hard with a 60:48. Bekele got beat by 2 others but how many have been beaten by people you know you are much slower when you have an off day
Flagpole wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
This.
Bekele ran 7:30 for 3,000m in 2001, just over 20 years before his 2:06:47. Never mind the fact that he’s definitely good for faster with more reasonable, non-WR-chase pacing, that kind of longevity at that elite of a level must be totally unprecedented. I guess it’s easier when you’re the most talented distance runner we have ever seen.
Bekele has been putting up 1220+ point performances on the IAAF tables for longer than the War in Afghanistan - astounding.
It is truly amazing. Nice context with the Afghanistan comparison.
In my opinion, the first jaw-dropping marathon world best was Belayneth Dinsamo's 2:06:50 in 1988. Bekele just beat that (by 3 seconds) at age 39 and is considered "washed up".
Not to mention Bekele won the Montferland Run 15k run in December 2000 when Jakob Ingebregstein was just 2 months old. It would be interesting to know more about the races he ran in the mid to late 90s. He was in the World Youth Championships in 1998 and got silver in 3000m, but it would be fun to know what his PBs were before that race. He must have had a decent amount of good races and times in order to get into the World Youths in 1998 in the first place.
John___Matrix wrote:
I think we can comfortably lay to rest the idea Bekele has a repeat of his 2:01 in him, that run is looking more and more like an outlier and each time his team claim he's in shape he seems to be a mile off.
It's a shame I guess but it's not like there's any doubt Kipchoge is the marathon goat anyway .
He came within 6 seconds of Kimetto’s then WR in 2016 and then within 2 seconds in 2019, so it’s hard to say the latter was an outlier. He’s only run 11 marathons total including the one this past weekend.
Bekele has acknowledged in interviews that Kipchoge is the better runner on road. He just has a burning desire to crack the marathon WR before retiring, and even if he does succeed, he won’t come close to dethroning Kipchoge’s marathon goat status, and it’s just not about that in his mind.
He should focus on winning NY, regardless of the time.
Flagpole wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
This.
Bekele ran 7:30 for 3,000m in 2001, just over 20 years before his 2:06:47. Never mind the fact that he’s definitely good for faster with more reasonable, non-WR-chase pacing, that kind of longevity at that elite of a level must be totally unprecedented. I guess it’s easier when you’re the most talented distance runner we have ever seen.
Bekele has been putting up 1220+ point performances on the IAAF tables for longer than the War in Afghanistan - astounding.
It is truly amazing. Nice context with the Afghanistan comparison.
In my opinion, the first jaw-dropping marathon world best was Belayneth Dinsamo's 2:06:50 in 1988. Bekele just beat that (by 3 seconds) at age 39 and is considered "washed up".
Sixth in NY and looking to me like a similar finish in the deeper field of Boston coming up.