Cheptegei, Ahmed and Chelimo in the 2 Mile at the Pre Classic. Any predictions?

Runnerofruns wrote:

Everyone is underestimating Barega.

He is the top dog in this race, as with every race he has entered this year. His problem is that he is unwilling to push the pace.

I expect 4:04-3:58 for Barega, with Cheptegei doing most of the leading from 2000-2800 and getting pipped with 200 to go.

Maybe. Cheptegei outkicked Barega pretty convincingly in this event two years ago, though, and I think healthy Cheptegei has generally had the better of Barega. If he's rounded into form, and it seems he is, I just don't think anyone should be favored over him in anything 3000+, even Barega. But the rivalry will be fun to watch over the years. They both seem like generational talents and here they are, just a couple years apart.

zxccxzv wrote:

I love Grijalva and he is a great story, but he grew up in Arizona, to my knowledge.

Fairfield, California since age 3. Armijo HS

birdbeard wrote:

I think healthy Cheptegei has generally had the better of Barega.

Eh, I was actually wrong on that. Cheptegei is 3-5 against Barega all-time.

I do think that Cheptegei looked to be closing on Barega in the 10,000 and was just way out of position going into the last lap, but that's his own fault, and Barega was the better racer on the day.

Last time out:

1 Joshua CHEPTEGEI Uganda 8:07.54 FR WL

2 Paul CHELIMO United States 8:07.59 PB

3 Selemon BAREGA Ethiopia 8:08.69 PB

I pick Barega in 8:04.23 being fully rested from Tokyo. I've got Chelimo in 2nd (8:06.17) in his perfect distance and Cheptegei in 3rd (8:06.78).

3k is a distance not as often focused on, but it does seem the best guys take an honest shot at it every year or two- that is a legit record.

The 2 mile is run even far less often than the 3k. it is a record that is up for grabs on the right day. no doubt.

If these guys make a pact to go after the record, it will go sub 8. Or if just one guy makes the decision to time trial it, wins or losses be damned.

If they are actually racing, a few seconds off.

According to Daniels, 12:35 is worth 7:13 for 3000 and 7:48 for 2 miles.

birdbeard wrote:

According to Daniels, 12:35 is worth 7:13 for 3000 and 7:48 for 2 miles.

That equivalency chart at this level seems fanciful. 12:35 would equate to 3:01.2 every 1200m. Yet, if Cheptegei were to run an equivalent race over 3000m he'd supposedly run 2:53.2 twice and still have enough the final 600m to run 7:13.

Not saying you're wrong, but this doesn't seem very plausible.

Finnished at 344 wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

According to Daniels, 12:35 is worth 7:13 for 3000 and 7:48 for 2 miles.

That equivalency chart at this level seems fanciful. 12:35 would equate to 3:01.2 every 1200m. Yet, if Cheptegei were to run an equivalent race over 3000m he'd supposedly run 2:53.2 twice and still have enough the final 600m to run 7:13.

Not saying you're wrong, but this doesn't seem very plausible.

If El Guerrouj could run 12:35 for 5k he would probably be able to run 7:15 or faster, but Cheptegei and other greats like Bekele and Geb were 5k/10k/HM runners

With El G down to 2:44 enroute, he probably could have afforded to run a couple of 2:53s and not suffer too much. His range was absolutely astonishing. Cheptegei doesn't have races that require those kinds of ranges out of the gate.

Runnerofruns wrote:

Everyone is underestimating Barega.

He is the top dog in this race, as with every race he has entered this year. His problem is that he is unwilling to push the pace.

I don’t see that as being true at all. The problem is it’s backfired on him when he’s done so.

2019 PRE 2-mile:

Barega was talking about running a historically fast time pre-race; he was ~10 meters out in front beyond 2k and wound up getting outkicked for 3rd.

2020 Ostrava 5000:

Barega was talking about reclaiming the WR for Ethiopia pre-race; he was well out in front at 3k and wound up getting walked down and outkicked by Kiplimo.

Another more recent example I can’t find video of is the Madrid indoor 1500 this year; Barega split 1:51.0 or so at 800 and it looked like he was gunning for the indoor WR, but then he slowed dramatically, letting Jesus Gomez back into the race, and barely won in 3:35, his slowest of 3 indoor 1500s this year.

AJ Nation 4ever wrote:

Cheptegei in 7:57 with Ahmed also dipping under the WR.

Nice weather. Good air quality. Why not go for a world record.

I hope this is the result.

Finnished at 344 wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

According to Daniels, 12:35 is worth 7:13 for 3000 and 7:48 for 2 miles.

That equivalency chart at this level seems fanciful. 12:35 would equate to 3:01.2 every 1200m. Yet, if Cheptegei were to run an equivalent race over 3000m he'd supposedly run 2:53.2 twice and still have enough the final 600m to run 7:13.

Not saying you're wrong, but this doesn't seem very plausible.

Probably a bit, but I think it's generally an OK starting point. I think 12:35 is superior to 7:20. By how much is certainly up for debate--an equivalent of anything from around 7:13 to 7:20 would make sense to me.

This isn't exactly on topic, but I think Daniels would suggest the best men's distance WR right now is actually in the Half Marathon. It pegs 57:32 as the equivalent of: 3:22 / 7:12 / 12:33 / 26:09 / 2:00:22. So it's possible Daniels overvalues the higher the distance goes. Which would be a decent argument that 12:35 is closer to 7:18-20.

birdbeard wrote:

Finnished at 344 wrote:

That equivalency chart at this level seems fanciful. 12:35 would equate to 3:01.2 every 1200m. Yet, if Cheptegei were to run an equivalent race over 3000m he'd supposedly run 2:53.2 twice and still have enough the final 600m to run 7:13.

Not saying you're wrong, but this doesn't seem very plausible.

Probably a bit, but I think it's generally an OK starting point. I think 12:35 is superior to 7:20. By how much is certainly up for debate--an equivalent of anything from around 7:13 to 7:20 would make sense to me.

This isn't exactly on topic, but I think Daniels would suggest the best men's distance WR right now is actually in the Half Marathon. It pegs 57:32 as the equivalent of: 3:22 / 7:12 / 12:33 / 26:09 / 2:00:22. So it's possible Daniels overvalues the higher the distance goes. Which would be a decent argument that 12:35 is closer to 7:18-20.

There’s absolutely no way 12:35 is equivalent to 7:13. 7:18-7:20, sure. Basically Daniels is worthless in comparing distances below 5k with those above.

For elite performances equivalencies, this is your best friend:

That has 12:35.36 = 7:20.30.

Sub 8 is rare.

The recent 3k times were indoors, which is clearly faster.

sub-7:58: 5%

sub-8: 25%

>8: 75%

I think 8:00 is equivalent to around 7:27:00.

Food for thought: Chep’s world record 5000m, he split 8:05.74 for 3200m which is roughly 8:08.56 for a full 2 miles. His limiting factor is absolutely speed endurance, but if the race is honest it would seem reasonable that he could run 8:01-8:03. Really hoping that is the case as challenging that 8 minute barrier is such an incredible task.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

There’s absolutely no way 12:35 is equivalent to 7:13. 7:18-7:20, sure. Basically Daniels is worthless in comparing distances below 5k with those above.

For elite performances equivalencies, this is your best friend:

https://caltaf.com/pointscalc/calc.html

That has 12:35.36 = 7:20.30.

I've always kind of wondered if the IAAF tables have a good read on the lesser-run events. Probably still better than Daniels. I think I agree that 7:13 (2:24.33/KM) is a tad optimistic for 12:35 (2:31/KM) (although I don't think it seems crazy), but I think 7:15-18 (2:25-26/KM) seems spot-on. Cheptegei's final 3000 was 7:30.66 after running a 5:04.77 opening five laps. Bekele was 7:31.88.

with wavelight and supershoes, they should able to go 7:55-7:57, although Komen was better at 3000m/2mile.

Only one human on this earth has ever run back to back sub 4 miles, and that man is Daniel Komen, and that will still be the case after Pre. Geb took multiple cracks at it and came back empty-handed each time. 7:58 is not soft. Hope this helps.