Men's Olympic 10,000 Official Discussion Thread - Haile owned the 90s, Bekele the 00s, Farah the 10s. Who will rule the 20s?

My gut says Kejelcha takes it. He's better than in 2019 and Cheptegei is worse. And I have no reason to think Kiplimo will be a championship monster.

1. Kejelcha

2. Kiplimo

3. Cheptegei

4. Barega

Sifansshass wrote:

My gut says Kejelcha takes it. He's better than in 2019 and Cheptegei is worse. And I have no reason to think Kiplimo will be a championship monster.

1. Kejelcha

2. Kiplimo

3. Cheptegei

4. Barega

Not knocking the pick, but what has Kejelcha done to make you think he's better than 2019? Barega beat him at the Ethiopian trials, he got 4th in his only other 10,000 this year (Ethiopian champs) and in 2019 he'd recently run 7:28/12:45/59:17, and was already the WR holder for the indoor mile. Seems pretty similar to his results the last couple years. I'd say if anything, he's maybe a touch worse. He certainly has the chops, but so does Barega, and Barega recently beat him, so he'd be my pick if I was I going to pick an Ethiopian over the Ugandans.

Excellent analysis of the entire race. The only thing I believe you got wrong is you assume Kipruto is in 2020 shape when he torched the Valencia 10k road race in 26:24 with old shoes that had holes in them. There is a reason why Kipruto dropped out of the Kenya Trials in June. He wasn't very fit at all. He's been trying to catch up to everyone during the last 6 weeks, but his fitness level is way below 2020. The only thing I know about the Olympic 10,000 is that Kipruto isn't fit enough to win a medal.

birdbeard2 wrote:

Sifansshass wrote:

My gut says Kejelcha takes it. He's better than in 2019 and Cheptegei is worse. And I have no reason to think Kiplimo will be a championship monster.

1. Kejelcha

2. Kiplimo

3. Cheptegei

4. Barega

Not knocking the pick, but what has Kejelcha done to make you think he's better than 2019? Barega beat him at the Ethiopian trials, he got 4th in his only other 10,000 this year (Ethiopian champs) and in 2019 he'd recently run 7:28/12:45/59:17, and was already the WR holder for the indoor mile. Seems pretty similar to his results the last couple years. I'd say if anything, he's maybe a touch worse. He certainly has the chops, but so does Barega, and Barega recently beat him, so he'd be my pick if I was I going to pick an Ethiopian over the Ugandans.

There are two ways in which Kejelcha is better now than in 2019. First, in both the 2019 and 2021 Ethiopia Trials, Kejelcha ran 26:49. He has run that time three out of his four career 10,000 meter races. In 2019, Kejelcha finished his last 400 in 55.2. In 2021, he was able to stay with Barega in the last 400 and they both ran 53.2. Secondly, his 7:26 for 3000 in Oslo this year was a grinding thing of beauty. He is clearly fitter than he was two years ago. The only thing Kejelcha still lacks is that last 60 meters of a race speed. But if Kiplimo and Cheptegei do their job and make this a blazing pace, Kejelcha might be able to hang and settle for a medal. It should be an exciting race!

Thanks for the complement.

In June of 1981 a runner by the name of Henry Rono ran 5k in 15:41 on the track.

By late August/early September of 1981 Rono ran 13:12, 13:10, 13:06 (WR) 27:41 and 7:40 in a span of two weeks( this is off of memory). Coach Chaplain at the time stated Rono was in forced shape( I still don’t what he meant by that).

Will Kipruto show up in “forced shape?” I hope so. I want to see a fast pace.

Long Legs wrote:

Jakob when he wins the 5k and 10k in both 2024 and 2028.

Whoever wins this Olympics 10k will be a flash in the pan.

Jakob would win the 5k and 10k in this Olympics if his daddy wasn’t so obsessed with the 1500. Jakob has the rare sub 3:30 wheels and amazing aerobic ability like Geb, Bekele, and Mo.

Jakob is better over 1500 than he is over 5000. No way he skips the 2024 and 2028 1500m for the 10km.

Can't see this going 26:30. The pace should be fairly quick but it's hot and humid out in Tokyo right now so "quick" probably means something around 26:50, maybe even 27:00. It's another race I wouldn't bet on, too much uncertainty, but my gut still says Kiplimo. Rhonex isn't in shape for a medal, but I wouldn't sleep on Kwemoi. He looked great in the trials and won the Kenyan XC champs this year

oldoldrunner wrote:

Coach Chaplain at the time stated Rono was in forced shape( I still don’t what he meant by that).

Will Kipruto show up in “forced shape?” I hope so. I want to see a fast pace.

He did a short period of high intensity catch up training, i.e. forced himself in to shape. Very risky because of high chance of acute injury, but Henry got away with it.

Couldn't say what Kipruto's been up to, whatever, hope we get a good race.

There was a lot of talk about the heat before the Beijing Marathon and how it would be a slow race The Africans ignored any of that talk and hammered from the gun.

Paul Chelmo say he likes it hot. He was born in Kenya. The Africans have a different mind set, they are not afraid to get after it. Even in hot and humid conditions.

I hope I’m right because I don’t want be at home and get devistated. I’m

oldoldrunner wrote:

There was a lot of talk about the heat before the Beijing Marathon and how it would be a slow race The Africans ignored any of that talk and hammered from the gun.

Paul Chelmo say he likes it hot. He was born in Kenya. The Africans have a different mind set, they are not afraid to get after it. Even in hot and humid conditions.

I hope I’m right because I don’t want be at home and get devistated. I’m

Heh yeah. I think it will be fast (ish). I think these guys are 26:10-26:30 capable so maybe we need to rethink 26:50ish being super fast for them? 75 degree dew point looks tough though, but I agree the Africans have traditionally been able to push through humid and hot conditions.

It would have been an easy pick last year, but with Cheptegei just ever-so-slightly off his game this season, I can't ignore Kiplimo's solo 26:33 and Barega's 26:49 with that 53 second close.

Final prediction:

1. Selemon Barega, 26:43.3

2. Jacob Kiplimo, 26:44.1

3. Joshua Cheptegei, 26:44.3

4. Yomif Kejelcha, 26:44.4

5. Rogers Kwemoi, 26:46

6. Berihu Aregawi, 26:49

7. Mo Ahmed, 26:53

8. Rhonex Kipruto, 26:58

9. Weldon Langat, 27:03

10. Grant Fisher, 27:09

birdbeard wrote:

It would have been an easy pick last year, but with Cheptegei just ever-so-slightly off his game this season, I can't ignore Kiplimo's solo 26:33 and Barega's 26:49 with that 53 second close.

Final prediction:

1. Selemon Barega, 26:43.3

2. Jacob Kiplimo, 26:44.1

3. Joshua Cheptegei, 26:44.3

4. Yomif Kejelcha, 26:44.4

5. Rogers Kwemoi, 26:46

6. Berihu Aregawi, 26:49

7. Mo Ahmed, 26:53

8. Rhonex Kipruto, 26:58

9. Weldon Langat, 27:03

10. Grant Fisher, 27:09

This is the best prediction I’ve seen so far. One of the Ethiopians and one of the Kenyans will likely blow up in the last mile but predicting is unclear. I also feel Mo Ahmed probably deserves to be a bit higher up on this list. He’s a proven commodity at 5k, and I expect a step up in performance at 10k over Doha. I expect him to finish near or just behind Kejelcha.

A warning to all others: discount Barega at your own peril. He ought to be the favorite based on recent form, with Kiplimo a close second, as birdbeard noted.

Honestly it was somewhat lazy for me to do the Barega 2nd, Kejelcha 4th thing in my predictions, but I feel like that is how it will tend to shake out in a loaded field. Both have great engines, but I trust Barega's close over Kejelcha's and think both are beatable by an on-form Cheptegei who beats them to the punch.

Many interesting observations from the group here. One of the big takeaways from this is how everyone is dismissing Cheptegei. I know he ran 12:54 for 5000 in early June. And he was torched in the last 600 of that race. But Cheptegei ran 26:11 last year. You would think that seven weeks of good training is enough time for him to get into sub 26:30's shape. I see Kiplimo and Cheptegei moving away away from the Ethiopians in the final mile. My final prediction for the race: 1) Kiplimo 2) Cheptegei 3) Barega.

I agree that Ahmed could definitely end up higher and that someone will blow up like Gebhriwet did in 2019. But I think the 6 ahead of Ahmed deserve to be favored over him, and one could make a pretty good argument for Kipruto if he was in decent form (beat Ahmed handily in Doha to go along with his road credentials) as well as Langat (27:23 at the Kenyan trials altitude convers to something like 26:30). I don't see him being able to closer with the top 4 on my list, and Berihu Aregawi was only a few tenths back from Yomif and Selemon at the Ethiopian trials, so it's hard to move him up at all.

26:53 in the heat would be pretty solid for Ahmed -- my times might be a bit aggressive given the conditions -- I have no idea how much they will slow down the race but I was assuming about a 15-second slowdown across the board. Could well be more like 30.

Track Shark wrote:

Many interesting observations from the group here. One of the big takeaways from this is how everyone is dismissing Cheptegei. I know he ran 12:54 for 5000 in early June. And he was torched in the last 600 of that race. But Cheptegei ran 26:11 last year. You would think that seven weeks of good training is enough time for him to get into sub 26:30's shape. I see Kiplimo and Cheptegei moving away away from the Ethiopians in the final mile. My final prediction for the race: 1) Kiplimo 2) Cheptegei 3) Barega.

I will definitely be rooting for Joshua. I really like him. The 12:54 honestly didn't bother me much, as the 5000 has never really been his game. But I would've liked to see him under 7:30 in his 3000 record attempt, and Kiplimo has always been right on his tail or ahead of him (just behind him in World XC, beat him at World Half champs just after the 10,000 record). Barega and Cheptegei go back and forth in the shorter events, with Barega holding a small edge overall, and his 10,000 at the Ethiopian trials is enough for me to consider him the favorite given his 3000 prowess -- he was tripped up in the last lap or so of the indoor 3000 where Wale ran 7:24.99. I think Barega would've been right with Wale had that not happened.

michiganrunner55 wrote:

Jzs wrote:

I’ve looked on: NBC , USA, NBCSN & the Olympic Channel.. I don’t see where the M-10,000m is being broadcast.. zip zero. Where is this showing up ..?!

It’s not on…instead 1964 episode of Gilligans Island is on

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!! I love Mary Ann and Ginger and that Gilligan is a freaking hoot! Thanks for letting me know, I'll set my DVR!

First I’ll say thanks to the Brit male announcer from Doha.

Less than two days before we get to see “six and a quarter miles of old fashion money” and the “Ballsy Cheptegei .”

I can’t wait. I’ll be getting up at 2:50 am to start watching.

The medals will all go before 26:55. It's going to be chaos, 7 will be there with 400 to go.