Centro's chances in Tokyo = super bleak

There were 12 spots scheduled for the final in Rio, like usual.

A 13th, Bustos from Spain, was added after getting last in his semis but being placed in the final because he was impeded.

It's a little weird how much you want Centro to flounder and finish 8th or worse. Has his running career had a negative impact on your mental well being? Did he sleep with your wife? Did he beat you up? What's the real underlying issue here buster.?

a dude with tiny calves wrote:

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

Well yeah. Anything except Centro winning gold again. 2016 has happened already and everyone has learned from it. Moreover, many got inspired - there are 5-6 runners now that are capable of finishing in 50-51s.

I don't understand the fascination with Burrito Track Club Centro nowadays. Got beat by Hocker at the trials. Then runs 3:49 TT when Hocker ran 3:50 indoors last winter. Hocker should be everyone American is rooting for.

My point is that this years field isnt much different than other fields in the past in terms of talent and performance. Jakob is really impressive because of how young he is, but there are also 3:28/29 guys every year and Centro has beaten plenty of them.

Matt C. prevailed over plenty men internationally in 1500m races slower than 3:35. All of his Matt C.'s medals were earned in races slower than 3:36. All Matt C.'s outdoor 1500m medals were earned 2011 to 2016. From 1964 to today, the modern T&F era with Black Africans participating, I count three men earning Olympic medals, 1500m athletics past age of 30: Kipchoge Keino, Mehdi Baala & Nick Willis. If Matt C. races in 5th or 6th place until 150m to go, he may pick off some guys falling apart, finishing 3rd or 4th as he did in 2012. If Matt C. attempts to race to win, especially in a fast race, Matt C. will not have a good Olympics.

I've been a fan of American distance running for decades now. Growing up, I wanted nothing more than for Americans to be actually competitive at World Championships and the Olympics. For me, as for a lot of others, Alan Webb seemed to promise such success. But he never delivered, in large part because he simply could not race well. Centro's rise has been, I think, exactly what a lot of distance running fans have been hoping for for a long time. Which is what makes it so weird that everyone on this messageboard seems to be rooting against him, practically salivating at the prospect that he won't be able to win gold a second time (which, by the way, is so tall an order that it hasn't been done in decades). I swear, it's as if everyone here wants American runners to race like Webb, throwing down a 12.xx second 100m on the second lap of a championship race.

In any case, it's dumb to say Centro's medal chances are bleak because of this one time trial. People here have a way of forgetting a lot, especially about how things looked back in 2016. Then as now, he was coming off of a dreary performance at the WC's the year before, this one in Beijing where he looked absolutely gassed with 300m to go. Sure, he had won Indoor WCs, but people discounted that as a fluke, because none of the major players had been there. Then, in the summer, people on this board were faulting Centro for not traveling to Europe and staying in the states. When he ran his pre-race tuneup--a 1000m--he lost one of his only races that season to Clayton Murphy, which hardly seemed like a good sign at the time. But when Murphy went on to get bronze in the 800m, Centro's loss started to look a little more forgiveable. Then he got gold.

The point of all this is that none of these arguments carry any water. Just because Centro had a poor performance at Worlds last year does not mean he will have a poor performance this year. Does it mean he will win gold? Definitely not. But no one is a guarantee for gold-- not even El G could do it more than once.

This is very easy

On Sunday June the 27th, Centro ran a 1500m in 3.35.34 with splits of 58.87, 60.37, 57.06, 39.05. Last lap 52.8'ish.

That performance in this style of race is historically comparable to World and Olympic medal winning performances of the past. Point being if the Olympic final was this type of race, history would suggest that Centro would be right where he needs to be to walk away with some hardware.

Last night he ran what amounted to a solo 3.49.26 mile. At a high school track, with nothing on the line (the AR was never in the picture but kudos to him for allowing that to be part of the narrative in order to generate some interest). I think some of you idiots are forgetting a couple of things - 1) How good a 3.49.26 mile is (39th best EVER) 2) How uncommon a mile that fast is (fun fact: In the last decade there have been on 9 performances better than that and all of them were done at either Hayward in the pre mile or Bislett in the dream mile). 3) and most importantly, how tough it is to time trial a full distance at that level of performance.

So 9 days out from the first round, his last two performances were a historically elite 1500m effort in a championship style (approx 2.00 at 800m) race, and a solo 3.49.26 mile in very difficult mental/mindset situation.

Look Centro's chances always come down to the style of race - but they do for 95% of the field. If it goes like the Doha final he won't win and probably won't medal - but that has been the same his entire career and it was also the same for Willis and many other extremely good runners. I mean who predicted the 2016 final would be 3.00 at the bell, pretty much on par with a womens race these days?

If Centros chances are super bleak it has nothing to do with his shape. It is all about the fact there is a Kenyan guy out there who has the juice (ahem) to run sub 3.30 gun to tape in a final and a Norwegian kid who can match him. If that happens the chances for everyone not named Cherioyot and Ingebritsen are weak. If it doesn't his chances are as good as anyones and you would have to be an idiot to count out the guy who has actually been there and done it before.

If I am Centro right now, 3 hours into my flight to Tokyo, I am feeling extremely good about where I am.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

I'm stumped wrote:

Assuming just 12 make the final, that means Hocker and Centro are on the bubble.

I don't know how it is gonna be in Tokyo, but they had 14 spots in the final in Rio.

paremata wrote:

Yes, it will be tough for him to medal. But he is in the conversation. It is not super bleak or even bleak.

It is pretty bleak. He is gonna place 8-13th regardless of what the pace is gonna be. The only reason he is in the "conversation" is because his fangirls keep forgetting how insanely strong and deep the field this year is. And also that Centro has been a "has been" for the past 5 years already.

They had 13 in the Rio final but one got in on protest, I think Andrews interfered with the guy. Normally there are 12. But Centro looks bleak. Yes, he has much bleakness.

All the haters spinning fantasies about him losing. The Olympic final is almost always tactical. Centro is the favorite. End of story. Keep hating.

Star wrote:

There were 12 spots scheduled for the final in Rio, like usual.

A 13th, Bustos from Spain, was added after getting last in his semis but being placed in the final because he was impeded.

And what happened with a 14th man - Aman Wote - who had a DNS mark in the final?

I think it's easy to read Centro's race last night as a disappointment because of the AR attempt. But if no one had mentioned that, I think the conversation today would be looking a bit different.

And yes, 3:49 is nothing to slouch at, particularly when it's run solo the last 600m after rabbits took things out way too hot. While I'm inclined to speculate that Centro is in better shape than the time suggests--3:47 is hardly out of the question with better pacing--I think the more important thing is what Centro got out of this effort training wise: he went out hard and held on. It wasn't a pretty last 300m, but I have to think there's a pretty substantial training benefit to racing this way just before the big dance.

a dude with tiny calves wrote:

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

Well yeah. Anything except Centro winning gold again. 2016 has happened already and everyone has learned from it. Moreover, many got inspired - there are 5-6 runners now that are capable of finishing in 50-51s.

I don't understand the fascination with Burrito Track Club Centro nowadays. Got beat by Hocker at the trials. Then runs 3:49 TT when Hocker ran 3:50 indoors last winter. Hocker should be everyone American is rooting for.

My point is that this years field isnt much different than other fields in the past in terms of talent and performance. Jakob is really impressive because of how young he is, but there are also 3:28/29 guys every year and Centro has beaten plenty of them.

He's also lost to plenty of them. by American standards his championship record is the greatest in history but the reality is since 2013 he's got the 3:50 Rio and nothing else.

World finals

2011

1500 m, Bronze

2013

1500 m, Silver

2015

1500 m, 8th

2017

1500 m, 37th (h)

2019

1500 m, 8th

Olympic finals 2012

1500 m, 4th

2016

1500 m, Gold

Also WIC gold in 2016.

Maybe he needs to cheat more and get more nandrolone in his system

Harambe wrote:

All the haters spinning fantasies about him losing. The Olympic final is almost always tactical. Centro is the favorite. End of story. Keep hating.

Don't forget to come here after the final, when Centro places 8th or so.

The problem here is that almost nobody follows international meets and only cares about Americans. I have watched every big meet this year on Youtube and have closely followed progressions of the top 30 runners. Can tell you that this year the field is exceptionally deep and it does not look good for Centro in any scenario. Some serious TT specialists and also some serious kickers present. To be honest, I 100% believe that Hocker will place higher than Centro.

All you plebs enable him and continue to cheer for him only supports the use of PEDS. Apparently PEDs are OK if you are gunning for medals.

I'm stumped wrote:

a dude with tiny calves wrote:

My point is that this years field isnt much different than other fields in the past in terms of talent and performance. Jakob is really impressive because of how young he is, but there are also 3:28/29 guys every year and Centro has beaten plenty of them.

He's also lost to plenty of them. by American standards his championship record is the greatest in history but the reality is since 2013 he's got the 3:50 Rio and nothing else.

World finals

2011

1500 m, Bronze

2013

1500 m, Silver

2015

1500 m, 8th

2017

1500 m, 37th (h)

2019

1500 m, 8th

Olympic finals 2012

1500 m, 4th

2016

1500 m, Gold

Oh yes, so since 2013 (in the four global championships since then) he’s only won ONE, basically washed. And he only beat a 3:26 man, three 3:28 men, and two 3:29 to do it! He really hasn’t proven his ability to beat sub-3:30 men, has he?

Tamburlaine wrote:

I think it's easy to read Centro's race last night as a disappointment because of the AR attempt. But if no one had mentioned that, I think the conversation today would be looking a bit different.

And yes, 3:49 is nothing to slouch at, particularly when it's run solo the last 600m after rabbits took things out way too hot. While I'm inclined to speculate that Centro is in better shape than the time suggests--3:47 is hardly out of the question with better pacing--I think the more important thing is what Centro got out of this effort training wise: he went out hard and held on. It wasn't a pretty last 300m, but I have to think there's a pretty substantial training benefit to racing this way just before the big dance.

Do you think he really could run faster in a loaded field than in a small paced race where everyone was working and watching out for him?

I say his 3:49 TT is worth 3:50-3:51 in a real race against competition.

Sopa--

While I'm proud of you for watching international races on your little computer, I'm not sure that makes you unique on a website dedicated to international racing, nor that those races are properly indicative of championship performance.

Am I saying Centro will win? No. But you're so infatuated with saying he will perform horribly that it's hard to avoid the conclusion he hurt your feelings when he declined to autograph your chest.

my two pennies wrote:

Oh yes, so since 2013 (in the four global championships since then) he’s only won ONE, basically washed. And he only beat a 3:26 man, three 3:28 men, and two 3:29 to do it! He really hasn’t proven his ability to beat sub-3:30 men, has he?

I hope you do understand that a 3:50 OG final is once a lifetime opportunity? That was an insane blunder on the part of the all the <3:30 runners and has become a lesson for generations to come. This final will be won either as OR or a 50s last lap 3:35 race and Centro won't be able to be a contender in either.

SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP LALALALALALALALALL!!!!!

Centro is terrible and has never been good, and he will get dusted by a bunch of guys who have never won medals in multiple world-level finals!! Cher is better than Kiprop ever was and is invincible, and so is Jakob no matter how many times he chokes and gets beaten. AND THAT. IS. THAT!