Ranking all the U.S. middle and long distance medal chances from 1 (Mu) to 36 (Abdi)

John Wesley Harding wrote:

1. Athing Mu - Women’s 800 - 75% - The only American middle or long distance runner who can be considered the outright favorite. 1:54.x gun to tape would honestly not be shocking.

2. Emma Coburn - Women’s Steeplechase - 55% - She’ll get a tough race from Chepkoech, Kiyeng, and Yavi, but should be considered among the medal contenders as much as anyone, having won gold in ‘17, silver in ‘19, bronze in ‘16, and having set PBs at 800, 1500, and 5k in the last 2 seasons.

3. Raevyn Rogers - Women’s 800 - 50% - Sliding in fairly low-key but I like her medal chances. She was the silver medalist in Doha, and at this year’s trials she lowered her PB to 1:57.66. She ran a 4:29 mile PB a few days ago, indicating great fitness. I wouldn’t be surprised by 1:56.xx for 2nd or 3rd.

5. Ajee Wilson - Women’s 800 - 35% - She was the gold medal favorite heading into Doha 2019, where she placed 3rd, and is still technically ranked #1 in the world by World Athletics. But she had to scramble to qualify for the U.S. team behind two women I predict will continue to beat her, and there’s no shortage of ~1:57 women to contend with for the other medal at the moment.

6. Clayton Murphy - Men’s 800 - 25% - It’s hard to figure what we’ll see from Murphy in Tokyo, given his inconsistent nature (over the past 4-5 years, really), but we know when he’s at his best he can medal, and he was at his best as recently as 4 weeks ago. His European appearances since were rather lackluster, but perhaps it’s all part of his master plan?

7. Bryce Hoppel - Men’s 800 - 21% - 4 to 5 months ago I liked predicting Hoppel would upset Brazier for the gold medal. After running 1:43.2 for 2nd in Monaco ‘20 and then 1:44.37/2:16.27 (NR) indoors, he looked like a smart bet to improve on his 4th place from Doha. However, he’s stalled out at 1:44.x this outdoor season, which meant he had to work very hard for 3rd at the Trials, and he was only 11th and 5th in his two recent DL races.

11. Hillary Bor - Men’s Steeplechase - 15% - Placed 7th in the event in Rio and 8th in Doha and is having a fairly promising season, winning a slow (8:30) DL race in Gateshead and earning his second U.S. steeple title. The steeplechase field seems a bit weak this year (after El Bakkali), but 5th-6th for Bor sounds do-able, a medal feels like a bit of a stretch.

12. Courtney Frerichs - Women’s Steeplechase - 10% - She took silver behind Coburn at the 2017 WCs, and was 6th in the event in Doha. She ran well at the Trials, putting at least some pressure on Coburn, but it’s hard to see her having the turn of speed when the real racing starts in Tokyo. 6th place again, I’d wager.

13. Isaiah Jewett - Men’s 800 - 10% - His showing in Tokyo will be one of the most intriguing of the list, in as far as it relates to the future of the event in this country. 2 months ago, the 24 year old college senior was a 1:45 guy—now, he’s a 1:43.85 man who established the entire tone of the U.S. final. Was that a stepping stone to 1:42.xx or the performance of his life? I guess we’ll get some idea in Tokyo.

18. Yared Nuguse - Men’s 1500 - 3% - I think he has a 40-50% chance of making the final, compared with ~65% for Hocker and ~75% for Centro. He may well possess the tools to win a medal someday, but probably not in the next 3 weeks.

19. Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 5k - 3% - I’m not convinced she’s a 14:26 runner anymore, and even if she is, that doesn’t count for much in this ridiculously stacked field which includes 3 women who ran 14:15 at the Ethiopian Trials, plus arguably the two favorites in Hassan and Obiri. She should make the final but will be way out of medal contention.

21. Benard Keter - Men’s Steeplechase - 3% - Bor seems like our only chance whatsoever for a medal in this event, though I do think we can put 3 in the final. Keter ran an 8:18 PB for 8th in Monaco 2 weeks ago.

22. Mason Ferlic - Men’s Steeplechase - 3% - He’s having a fantastic season but probably lacks the talent of an Olympic medalist. The field is fairly shoddy, so he could place 6th-8th if he runs a great race.

24. Elise Cranny - Women’s 5k - 2% - I believe she will make the final. 1. Hassan 2. Tsegay 3. Cranny 4. Obiri? Please.

25. Grant Fisher - Men’s 10k - 2% - I’m not as down on our men’s 10k team as some posters, and feel we could go 8-11-13 or so on a good day—Fisher is my pick for that #8. 8th isn’t too far from 3rd in some events, but with the teams Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia are sending for the men’s 10k, it could be 200m+ in this one.

26. Woody Kincaid - Men’s 10k - 2% - Yes, he outkicked Fisher in this event at the Trials, but Fisher has better consistency and a marginally better PB (27:11 to 27:12). Who knows, Kincaid’s obviously surprised us before.

29. Heather Maclean - Women’s 1500 - 1% - She barely qualified for the USOT final on a questionable appeal, so an Olympic medal seems highly unlikely. Given her 800m background and upward trajectory, she does have a chance to make the final, but top 6 would be utterly shocking.

30. Rachel Schneider - Women’s 5k - 1% - Schneider, who turned 30 two days ago, has quietly, gradually developed into an Olympian with a great range of PBs (4:02-14:52-31:09). But this event is stacked and Schneider will do well to make the final.

31. Joe Klecker - Men’s 10k - 1% - “And with less than 100m to go Kiplimo breaks away from his compatriot...watch the clock, the Olympic record is going to be OBLITERATED—26:28, 29, 26:30 for Jacob Kiplimo of Uganda with his countryman Cheptegei just a few strides behind...now look at the battle for third, Kejelcha and Barega stride for stride—BUT WAIT, HERE COMES JOE KLECKER. JOE KLECKER WINS THE BRONZE IN 26:35.” Yeah, probably not.

34. Valerie Constien - Women’s Steeplechase - 1% - She was 6th in the steeple at NCAAs as a senior two years ago. She PR’d by 7 seconds to place 3rd at the Trials and make the team. Good for her.

Thoughts? Criticism?