What are the odds no American is in the 1500 final?

Star wrote:

Why do you keep talking about recent times?

Do you not follow the sport?

Centro’s SB in 2016 was 3:34.

When Lagat won his only 1500 Gold in 2007, his SB was 3:33.8 that year.

The Americans didn’t run in Monaco. A big reason they don’t have fast times.

It’s not like they lined up in races that went out in 1:52 and they couldn’t keep up.

They do have a lot of practice in negative split races, which is how the championship races usually go. Especially the heats.

And Centro won in 2016 in the slowest OG time in like 80 years. It was a fluke and the faster runners were idiots.

The Americans....and dozens of other guys.....have had plenty of opportunities to drop a time that gives us a more accurate representation of fitness. If they were 3:30 guys they would have dropped such a time over the last 18-24mo. They haven't. There are literally dozens of Centro's, Hocker's and Nuguse's who will line up thinking all they need is to get through and they have a chance. They aren't top tier. Doesn't mean they can't medal. It's just unlikely. Hell they all may make the final. But it's unlikely.

Alan

Take Monaco out of the equation. You still have dozens of guys who will line up at the OG who are faster. It's not like Monaco was the only place to run fast over the last 18-24mo.

Alan

I'm still not confident in Hockers race tactics. He'll be with world-class athletes who all have a kick and he likes to hug the rail, He barely managed to get out of being boxed in at the trials. I don't think he can get away with that at the Olympics. That being said, he definitely has a 3:31-32 in him that we could see in the Olympic Finals if Timothy runs.

It sounds like you're starting to doubt your instincts, Alan. I wonder if you're trying too hard to apply what you know about the marathon to the 1500. They are very different races. It's quite rare for for people with blistering kicks to fail to qualify for the 1500 finals just because they are a few seconds slower than the world's best when running a rabbited race.

The US trials is a lot harder to get through than it used to be.

There were 12 Americans that ran 3:35 or better this year.

The four fastest didn’t make the team.

The team members all beat Engels who ran 3:33 this year and was a WC finalist last time out. World Champion, Manangoi (3:28 PR) did not make those finals.

Comparing a one off rabbitted European 1500m time to what it takes to get through championship rounds isn’t the fairest comparison either.

My optimism cones from the period of:

2011 Centro Bronze

2012 Manzano Silver with Centro 4th

2013 Centro Silver

2016 Centro Gold

Manzano and Centro both ran 3:30 but finished near the back in their PR races.

That’s my analysis.

The only counter analysis I see is that other runners have faster times.

But the Americans haven’t even attempted a fast time this year, so you don’t know what they could run.

All that matters is how they run that particular week in three unrabitted races.

Runningart2004 wrote:

EVERYONE is a 3:33-35 guy who thinks they just need the right race in Europe to run 3:30. Yep. We are middle of the road.

Alan

Ya but there is that little fact that he our guys didn’t actually run in Europe this year because of the timing of the trials vs Games. Doesn’t that play a factor?

The European guys all run races over there and literally all of our Trials finalists haven’t stepped foot on the continent yet.

But let’s not let facts get in the way of your hating.

When we get two to the finals Alan will have an excuse just like he did when Centro won. “But it was 3:50!” like that means it doesn’t count.

Star wrote:

Why do you keep talking about recent times?

Do you not follow the sport?

Centro’s SB in 2016 was 3:34.

When Lagat won his only 1500 Gold in 2007, his SB was 3:33.8 that year.

The Americans didn’t run in Monaco. A big reason they don’t have fast times.

It’s not like they lined up in races that went out in 1:52 and they couldn’t keep up.

They do have a lot of practice in negative split races, which is how the championship races usually go. Especially the heats.

Because he’s willing to die on this hill, even if the argument is flawed in a variety of ways.

I don't know the rules. I assume the semifinal will be two races with the top two finishers and the next four fastest times? Or will there be three semifinals?

Not really . In 2016 when Centro won the Olympics he didn't compete in a single Diamond League meet.

Runningart2004 wrote:

Take Monaco out of the equation. You still have dozens of guys who will line up at the OG who are faster. It's not like Monaco was the only place to run fast over the last 18-24mo.

Alan

And Hocker ran 3:50 indoors- a 3:33 equivalent. In college, the chances to run fast are few and far between. You had Nuguse literally running the standard solo at ACCs. How much faster can guys do this? McSweyn tried solo’ing for the Aussie title, lost and barely ran faster than Nuguse by .13 and he’s now a 3:29 guy.

As far as Centro goes his season is pretty much identical to Wightmans. A mid-level 1500 that looked impressive but wasn’t fast and a narrow trials loss with a solid close that was impressive. Don’t see you worried about him. Times don’t matter so much, the context of races and splits add to the picture.

This team is stronger than 2019 or 2017, and on par with 2016. The field is stronger than 2016 with Tim, but about even with no Tim. I do think it’s unlikely the race would plays into the USAs guys as much as that race.

Star wrote:

Why do you keep talking about recent times?

Do you not follow the sport?

Centro’s SB in 2016 was 3:34.

When Lagat won his only 1500 Gold in 2007, his SB was 3:33.8 that year.

The Americans didn’t run in Monaco. A big reason they don’t have fast times.

It’s not like they lined up in races that went out in 1:52 and they couldn’t keep up.

They do have a lot of practice in negative split races, which is how the championship races usually go. Especially the heats.

Y'all need to stop talking about 2016. That was a massive fluke caused entirely by whatever Kiprop was inexplicably doing there. The race was won in a time slower than the special Olympics if I'm not mistaken. That race is indicative of nothing and was unprecedented. Every single example shows that it takes 3:30 ish fitness to medal at the Olympic 1500 and you hang onto the one time in forever that someone did not demonstrate that fitness prior in the season, not saying Centrowitz didn't have that in him on that day no one can truly know that but in a somewhat honest race I very much doubt he would have been close to the medals.

shea it aint so wrote:

Runningart2004 wrote:

EVERYONE is a 3:33-35 guy who thinks they just need the right race in Europe to run 3:30. Yep. We are middle of the road.

Alan

Ya but there is that little fact that he our guys didn’t actually run in Europe this year because of the timing of the trials vs Games. Doesn’t that play a factor?

The European guys all run races over there and literally all of our Trials finalists haven’t stepped foot on the continent yet.

But let’s not let facts get in the way of your hating.

When we get two to the finals Alan will have an excuse just like he did when Centro won. “But it was 3:50!” like that means it doesn’t count.

Our guys didn't run fast (3:30) in Europe last summer...or summer before that....or the summer before that....etc.

Whoever let the pace be that slow in 2016 needs to retire lol. 2016 OG was a once in a generation failure.

None of our guys are favored to medal, likely to medal or even favored to make the finals. They are simply not fast enough because they have not shown that kind of fitness. Half a dozen or so non-Africans are faster.

Alan

Even if all 3 make the final what you wrote here is not wrong. Our guys will NOT be close to the medals, Tim, Jakob, and Stewy won't let the final be a slow race that's a bad strategy for the latter two and it's simply not in Tim's nature to not front run from the gun. I believe he's done it in non paced races every opportunity on the international stage. Face it. The Americans are just not good enough right now.

Centro ran 3:30 in 2015 so he had the fitness....

Alan

Runningart2004 wrote:

ShilohDoesntCare wrote:

Y'all need to stop talking about 2016. That was a massive fluke caused entirely by whatever Kiprop was inexplicably doing there. The race was won in a time slower than the special Olympics if I'm not mistaken. That race is indicative of nothing and was unprecedented. Every single example shows that it takes 3:30 ish fitness to medal at the Olympic 1500 and you hang onto the one time in forever that someone did not demonstrate that fitness prior in the season, not saying Centrowitz didn't have that in him on that day no one can truly know that but in a somewhat honest race I very much doubt he would have been close to the medals.

Centro ran 3:30 in 2015 so he had the fitness....

Alan

His SB was much slower. Which is the point. Had he run 3:30 in 2016 the OG wouldn't look like such a stain from the other athletes.

Incorrect. 2012 Manzano was a 3:34 guy all season with a 3:32 PB and incredible finishing abilities. 2008 Willis SB of 3:33 with a 3:32 PB and a strong finish. 2004 Rui Silva the guy you have to go back to ran 3:30.90 after the Olympics in a drag race losing to the Olympics 4th placer, 5th placer, and a guy who couldn’t even make the Kenyan team. Funny that time trialing doesn’t equal racing! Silva ran 3:32 in Rome losing to Baala and Songok ahead of the Olympics. Same lesson.

Lol, you’re blaming Nuguse and Hocker for not running fast in Europe last year when Hocker was an unknown and Nuguse’s season was completely submarined by COVID? You expect him to fly to Europe during a pandemic on his own dime?

Centro was injured. He ran 13-flat in a 5k in 2019. Who in the field can match that outside ofJakob (I guess McSweyn but ge hasn’t).

Right now, Tim isn’t even in the race. We’ve never seen Jakob front-run from the gun. When McSweyn did it it was a disastrous performance.

Obviously none of the team members have done a TT type race, but their world ranking is still very bad

45th

50th

52nd

…a lot of fast guys this year, from a lot of different countries (ETH, KEN, NOR, ESP, GBR, AUS, FRA, MAR, QAT, POL…). Even getting out of the first round will be a challenge.

Centro is a lock - 100% final I would bet all my money on it.

Hocker 75%. Kick is too deadly. Unless the semi is ~3:31 or faster he's 100% in

Nuguse 35%