Lyles in danger zone.

ultramarine wrote:

He got complacent.

+1

Started believing all the hype.

Losing Lyles, and Coleman, and Tori Bowie..... terrible; they were such a big part of our team.

plus 1 wrote:

ultramarine wrote:

He got complacent.

+1

Started believing all the hype.

I don't think that has anything to do with it, I think it was changing his training that made him slower, he's hitting the weights more and has gained some weight.

I still think lyles will drop a 19.6 high, he was in worse shape last year and dropped a 19.76.

paris2024hawk wrote:

plus 1 wrote:

+1

Started believing all the hype.

I don't think that has anything to do with it, I think it was changing his training that made him slower, he's hitting the weights more and has gained some weight.

I still think lyles will drop a 19.6 high, he was in worse shape last year and dropped a 19.76.

I sort of agree, I feel like he’s probably around the shape he was when he won in Monaco last year with his brother. I think that was the meet he ran that 19.76.

I still have to see a 19.7 from Bednarek, Kerley, Laird. Only Lyles and Norman have shown they can run this fast so far. I think Bednarek will this weekend.

Ain't 1857 wrote:

Lyle's strength has always been speed endurance,pulling away in the straight.

But this year the fitness appears lacking and guys aren't coming back to him as

his 7th place in the 100 showed.Bednarek,Kerley,Laird and Norman will be meters

ahead of Lyles off the turn and on current form,he is not running any these guys down.

Like he didn't run down Bednarek at Mt Sac last month? Cmon yall are talking foolish.

And Kerley hasn't even broken for a reason 20 lol.

I think that the 200m should be Kerley's best event now, given his training this year. He hits top speed near the end of the 100m and so should carry it and smash his 200 pr to be the next sub-10/20/44 guy. Bednarek 1, Kerley 2, 3 Lyles, if Norman's not in it. I'm thinking that Noah Lyles may need a change of scenery, a bit of time away from the sport. Something's not right and he's had some personal issues that he mentioned in the past. His heart doesn't seem in it right now. He's just not at the level he's been. But you never know in the sprints. After all, that was an incredibly fast 100m final and Lyles has often struggled with his start in the 100m but still dominated the 200m. If he's actually okay, no reason not to see 19.8-19.9 from him and that should make the team if there's no Norman.

I forgot Laird. He's run 19.8 twice this year. I think Lyles will get him but he'll be tough.

Off the top of my head, I'm almost certain that Angelo Taylor ran in the 2008 4x4 finals, and Taylor and Kerron Clement ran in the first round of the 4x4 in Beijing.

T&F utility man (200-3000)m wrote:

Runner10287 wrote:

Correct me if I am wrong but I remember seeing that literally anyone on the USA Olympic Team could be selected to run in the relays. Like they could have put Lebron or Phelps on a leg of the 4x1 in past Olympics.

Flame away.

That occurs at World Championship. You're thinking about Edwin Moses racing a leg on 4 x 400m relay. I don't recall an Olympic 4 x 100m or 4 x 400m relay team not filled with top six finisher.

Off the top of my head, I'm almost certain that Angelo Taylor ran in the 2008 4x4 finals, and Taylor and Kerron Clement ran in the first round of the 4x4 in Beijing.

Runner10287 wrote:

Correct me if I am wrong but I remember seeing that literally anyone on the USA Olympic Team could be selected to run in the relays. Like they could have put Lebron or Phelps on a leg of the 4x1 in past Olympics.

Flame away.

From

Relay Selection Criteria

For the men’s and women’s 4x100 meter and 4x400 meter relays, up to six (6) athletes may be

entered as members of each relay pool. The four (4) athletes (including the alternate) entered in

the respective individual events (100m and 400m) are required by World Athletics (IAAF) rules

to be included in each pool. For each relay pool, in addition to the four (4) athletes listed above,

there will be two (2) athletes selected. Selection of the two (2) additional athletes will be made

by the USATF Head Relay Coach, in consultation and cooperation with the respective 2020

Olympic Games Head Coach or his/her designee, USATF’s Chief of Sport Performance, USATF

High Performance Division Chair and one non-competing athlete selected by USATF’s Athletes

Advisory Committee who has World Championship and/or Olympic experience in the 4x100m or

4x400m relays.

Mixed Relay Selection Criteria

For the mixed 4x400 meter relay pool, two (2) male and two (2) female athletes will be selected.

Selection of these four (4) athletes will be made by the USATF Head Relay Coach, in consultation

and cooperation with the respective 2020 Olympic Games Head Coach or his/her designee,

USATF’s Chief of Sport Performance, USATF High Performance Division Chair and one noncompeting

athlete selected by USATF’s Athletes Advisory Committee who has World

Championship and/or Olympic experience in the 4x100m or 4x400m relays.

zcxvzxcv wrote:

I forgot Laird. He's run 19.8 twice this year. I think Lyles will get him but he'll be tough.

THIS is why the 200 will be super-interesting, because you can always forget about or discount some guy who has a decent shot at placing!

Speaking of which, Lyles is still fast af, and has the stride to carry it through the 200.

The one guy I'm not so sure of is Kerley. Bednarek, Lyles, and Laird are proven in the 200 this season, Kerley is not. There have historically been LOTS of 9.90-10.00 guys whose 200's have sucked. Even another 9.86 guy like Vicaut can have a crap 200m, his PB is 20.30! Ok so Kerley doesn't run like Vicaut, but he is also a big guy now, although he has leaned out and is not as built as Vicaut. How about Rodgers, PB's 20.24; Carter 20.25; Christie 20.09.

There are plenty of fast 100m guys who will go nowhere in the 200. They tend not to have Kerley's 400m pedigree but tbh I see the 200 as much more akin to the 100 than the 400. Look at the all-time 200m list, and you will see it populated by mostly 100m athletes, not 400m athletes. Why is that? It is because if you can be great at the 100, you do it--NOT the 400. Sometimes not even the 200. This suggests that the great 100m athletes COULD run a great 400 if they really tried or cared--look at Gay 44.89, Gatlin, of course Dolt.

But I don't think the reverse is true, that a great 400 athlete could run a great 100 if they really tried or cared. They can get close, like WVN, maybe Norman, and others. The fact that Kerley has verifiedly run this fast in the 100 suggests to me that he is in fact primarily a 100 guy who for some reason was running 400's, because he got wrongly shafted into that event for some reason.

And the fact that he is primarily a very fast 100m guy means that his 200 prospects are uncertain, although the potential is certainly there. IMO the historical stats don't come down on any particular side of the equation in Kerley's case. Right now he has an entirely meh 200m PB, like those other mid-9.8 guys I mentioned: 20.24. Think about that. Would you seriously bet that this guy has any shot of beating Lyles in a 200m, even if he beat him in a 100m? I wouldn't. Think about it: that outdoor PB is worse than Boling's indoor PB, from only this past indoor season. Think about this: that outdoor PB is worse than Knighton's, set less than a month ago...and he is young, hungry, and lightweight compared to Kerley. Full of 200m energy.

I think Bednarek gets it this year, even though Lyles ran him down before. I think I will go:

Bednarek - Lyles - Laird

Kerley or Knighton making the team would be an excellent surprise, especially if they took Lyles' spot. I have no love for Lyles, but you have to admit he's fast.

That's if Norman doesn't run, of course.

If he does, who knows. Totally up in the air, because even the dynamic of the race will then change.

But Kerley has run a 43.6 in the 400. He clearly has excellent speed endurance. The other two sprinters that ran a sub-10 and a sub-44, also ran sub 20 (WVN, Norman).

There is really no reason he couldn’t break 20, from a physiological standpoint. He probably needs to pattern his race more efficiently. And I bet he’s worked on that quite abit leading up to the trials, so I expect him to break 20 comfortably.

If I had to guess, I would say Bednarek is the one lock. Laird has a lot of sprinting on his legs from this NCAA season, and now has to go through the rounds. Lyles’s real top end has not shown up in any race this season (100m or 200m). Norman’s form in the 200m is unknown, but he clearly has the speed endurance. And Kerley has never previously run a time that would be competitive, so he’s a wildcard.

My prediction: Benarek, Norman, and Lyles by a hair over Kerley. Laird misses out due to fatigue.

My god US sprinting is deep right now.

Michael Norman just scratched from the 200 according to the USATF site.

Boling gonna smoke them all!

Ain't 1857 wrote:

With the form he has shown so far and Bednarek,Kerley,Norman in the deuce,

Lyles could be in trouble.He may not make the team.

This is not an outrageous take and it's an interesting topic.

It's easy to say "well he's a 200 guy and he was never really a 100 specialist, he's just run 2 of 3 races under 10 etc etc" and all of those statements are true and legitimate, but here is the caveat.

Yes he ran three 100m races, two under 10 but the last and most important one he didn't. He ran 10.07 and finished last in a race (ultimately the US National Championship 100m) that he has won before in 9.88 seconds. He also has a PR of 9.86 so it's not like he's just a 200m guy that can't run a 100m (like Michael Johnson was).

The year he ran his 9.86 he went on to run 19.50. So in order to kind of believe that running between 0.10 and 0.20 seconds slower than that over isn't of some concern, you have to subscribe to the notion that he's doing something or made some adjustment that compromises his 100m time in order to improve his 200m time. I just don't know off the top of my head what that might be.

Is it possible he is deliberately trying to hold back from 5-50 meters and then power home in order to work on something in the 200? Possibly, but I doubt that. Either way this is the only thing I can think of.

I think if he had run 9.92 in the final and even finished 6th then totally different story. Then it looks completely different. He was not going to win that 100 - he's after the 2, fine with that. But he certainly didn't enter the 100m to run 3 rounds and run 10.07 in the final - what would be the point of that tactic?

Right now you have Bednarek and Kerley who are equally capable in the 200 (I'm going to say Kerley is because I don't see how a 9.86 guy who can also run 43.6 over 400m will not put together a very good 200) - and they appear to be in better shape. If they had run a one-off 200m the day after that final would you be confident Lyles beats those two? That leaves a solitary spot left and there are dudes around who are fast and want it bad as well.

I am not writing off the world champ but if you are in his camp and aren't slightly concerned then you're not paying attention.

Besides Flojo in 1988 and Angelo Taylor in 2008, Michael Johnson ran on the 1992 Olympic 4X400 relay without running the 400 at those Olympic Trials.

Alyson Felix ran the 200 in 2008 and was on the 4X400. She made have been on a 4X100 relay somewhere without running the 100.

Point is, they choose 6 from the 100 and 400 to create a relay pool.

But once at the Games, they can pluck anyone from any event.

Ricardo Rude wrote:

Ain't 1857 wrote:

With the form he has shown so far and Bednarek,Kerley,Norman in the deuce,

Lyles could be in trouble.He may not make the team.

The year he ran his 9.86 he went on to run 19.50. So in order to kind of believe that running between 0.10 and 0.20 seconds slower than that over isn't of some concern, you have to subscribe to the notion that he's doing something or made some adjustment that compromises his 100m time in order to improve his 200m time. I just don't know off the top of my head what that might be.

Good post, pretty much inline with all of my points. Regarding your question above, he could have trained more heavily for speed endurance, and demphasized the blocks-specific and drive phase-specific training. The problem with this is that, if he did focus on top-end and speed endurance, why even enter the 100m? Perhaps to get some races in to sharpen up for the 200m? That sure didn’t seem like his intent from his interviews.

Gotta agree. I hope he doesn't pull a Donovan Brazier. Seems like Noah took his Olympic spot for granted, like it is his due. Earlier this year he said he was depressed and I think on medication? He's got the world by the tail but sometimes it's never enough. I hope he's up to the task but there are a lot of other athletes that seem hungrier than Noah.