Hot Take/Rumor: Hobbs Kessler Turning Pro (very soon)

think firster wrote:

In my opinion, a year in college has cost Athing Mu 6 figures. If she stays with Texas A&M one more year, it is plain stupidity...

Bruh how would she possibly be less valuable than now. She didn't break 2:00 in high school, there's no way she was getting a 6 figure contract offer based on potential alone.

She's now had another year to develop, new friends, new coach, and oh yea, broke a few collegiate records and has proven she's in another league. If anything, she's gained value

Money isn't everything. Drew seems kind of isolated and rarely races. Competing in college might have been a better choice for him and running in NCAA championships seems pretty cool to me.

College for what?? He has a faster then any college kid! It would be like LeBron going to North Carolina for one year lol. Get the money..they will pay for his schooling.

I am as pro-college as anyone. Anyone with the ability to go to college and get through and graduate should do so (more than should believe they can).

That said, Hobbs Kessler absolutely should NOT go to college and should become a pro runner immediately.

He just ran 3:34 for 1500 meters. Sorry, but that puts him in a league beyond college.

Professional runners typically don't have long careers. Nick Willis is an exception. He should make the money now while he can.

1) It's reportedly a 6-figure income plus bonuses. So, first of all, we don't know if that's $100,000 or much more than that. Even so, a new college graduate today in MOST fields will only make about half of that if they are lucky, so even if he's at the bottom of that salary and gets NO bonuses, he still makes twice what most graduates will make after 4 years of college.

2) He can still go to college...either now online and/or part-time, or later. Not going to college now doesn't mean he can't do it later...and yes, he will have to pay for it later, but big deal. There are still lots of ways to get a college education that doesn't cost a lot.

3) I get that it would be interesting to see him dominate in college (and he would), but he's got to look out for No. 1 here. Make the coin now. Hopefully he will invest and save wisely.

Cool doesn't pay the bills. Hobbs Kessler should go pro.

new era wrote:

think firster wrote:

In my opinion, a year in college has cost Athing Mu 6 figures. If she stays with Texas A&M one more year, it is plain stupidity...

Bruh how would she possibly be less valuable than now. She didn't break 2:00 in high school, there's no way she was getting a 6 figure contract offer based on potential alone.

She's now had another year to develop, new friends, new coach, and oh yea, broke a few collegiate records and has proven she's in another league. If anything, she's gained value

This is CORRECT! The vast majority of high school runners should NOT turn pro. Hobbs Kessler is an exception. Athing Mu was not ready to turn pro coming out of high school.

Flagpole wrote:

new era wrote:

Bruh how would she possibly be less valuable than now. She didn't break 2:00 in high school, there's no way she was getting a 6 figure contract offer based on potential alone.

She's now had another year to develop, new friends, new coach, and oh yea, broke a few collegiate records and has proven she's in another league. If anything, she's gained value

This is CORRECT! The vast majority of high school runners should NOT turn pro. Hobbs Kessler is an exception. Athing Mu was not ready to turn pro coming out of high school.

I agree here. Mu was not quite ready. I like the 2 yrs of college route that Robby Andrews took. Unless a kid is badly in need of cash, College running for a couple of years will not hurt a bit. I'm hoping Kessler does the same; would love to see him on the college level. That said, he is very special and could sign a contract now. Hoping that Mu enjoys some college. HK too.

If I were a corporate person in charge of those things, I don't think I'd invest a lot of money on a kid with potential alone. His 3:34 got him 5th place in a domestic race against domestic runners.

Doesn't do much for my brand until he starts winning or placing in major championships.

I'd hold my horses until after the Trials.

I think he's have his hands full in the NCAA and not dominate as easily as some people think.

kw1954 wrote:

If I were a corporate person in charge of those things, I don't think I'd invest a lot of money on a kid with potential alone. His 3:34 got him 5th place in a domestic race against domestic runners.

Doesn't do much for my brand until he starts winning or placing in major championships.

I'd hold my horses until after the Trials.

I think he's have his hands full in the NCAA and not dominate as easily as some people think.

I agree 100%. Let’s see if Hocker turns pro, but if not, Kessler is not going to be dominating Hocker any time soon.

kw1954 wrote:

If I were a corporate person in charge of those things, I don't think I'd invest a lot of money on a kid with potential alone. His 3:34 got him 5th place in a domestic race against domestic runners.

Doesn't do much for my brand until he starts winning or placing in major championships.

I'd hold my horses until after the Trials.

I think he's have his hands full in the NCAA and not dominate as easily as some people think.

You have got to be kidding. Anyone who knows about running is talking about this kid. He just ran a time that is better than the NCAA record. Doesn't matter than he got 5th place. He's pro level right now. No need to dink around in the NCAA.

Wise Old Man wrote:

kw1954 wrote:

If I were a corporate person in charge of those things, I don't think I'd invest a lot of money on a kid with potential alone. His 3:34 got him 5th place in a domestic race against domestic runners.

Doesn't do much for my brand until he starts winning or placing in major championships.

I'd hold my horses until after the Trials.

I think he's have his hands full in the NCAA and not dominate as easily as some people think.

I agree 100%. Let’s see if Hocker turns pro, but if not, Kessler is not going to be dominating Hocker any time soon.

1) Hocker should turn pro.

2) Kessler just ran a time faster than Hocker ever has, and he's younger. Not sure why you are so sure he wouldn't be able to beat Hocker in the NCAA if they were both there. Hocker is great, but beating him shouldn't be the test on whether Kessler should turn pro anyway. Hocker is pro-level now. Amateur hour for Kessler to run in college.

kw1954 wrote:

If I were a corporate person in charge of those things, I don't think I'd invest a lot of money on a kid with potential alone. His 3:34 got him 5th place in a domestic race against domestic runners.

Doesn't do much for my brand until he starts winning or placing in major championships.

I'd hold my horses until after the Trials.

I think he's have his hands full in the NCAA and not dominate as easily as some people think.

I think whoever is trying to sign him would definitely do it before the trials. Cause you have to realize there is probably a bidding war going between a few companies like say Nike or Adidas. Both of those will say: Sign with us now before the trials cause we have faith in your future. If you're Nike, no way you're going to wait til after the trials to make an offer and be beat by your competition. He's a 17 year old running 3:34. That's a great investment no matter how you look at it in my opinion.

kw1954 wrote:

If I were a corporate person in charge of those things, I don't think I'd invest a lot of money on a kid with potential alone. His 3:34 got him 5th place in a domestic race against domestic runners.

He was third American, improving over SIX SECONDS on his PR set a month ago.

TheSummerSoldier wrote:

I think whoever is trying to sign him would definitely do it before the trials. Cause you have to realize there is probably a bidding war going between a few companies like say Nike or Adidas. Both of those will say: Sign with us now before the trials cause we have faith in your future. If you're Nike, no way you're going to wait til after the trials to make an offer and be beat by your competition. He's a 17 year old running 3:34. That's a great investment no matter how you look at it in my opinion.

Agreed. The confluence of:

1) What he just ran at Portland

2) Doing so within a month of the biggest track meet/marketing event (Olympic Trials) in the US

3) Having 2 Olympic & 2 World Champs in the next 39 months

is too much to pass up. Not only are there only a few results that could possibly make his marketability higher, he's at peak value at the hottest time you possibly can be.

I'd be interested if between HK's meteoric rise and Mason's reemergence on the national scene there is enough to turn the Warhurst group into a fully brand-sponsored squad. Young phenom, guy who appears poised to make the US Olympic team in the steeple, and 2x Olympic medalist Willis? That's got to be worth a solid investment from a mid-level brand.

new era wrote:

I mean I can't judge because I'm not a high schooler who just ran 3:34, but I think there a huge upside to running at least a single NCAA season. There's the social aspect of being on a university team for one thing, but the NCAA teaches you how to race.

1) It's an Olympic year. Hobbs value won't get any higher. I'm pretty sure he can bank multiple millions of dollars if he signs now. Might be able to get it down the road.

2) Look at Webb. Did a year of college help him? Interesting also how the tables are turned now with Warhurst having the high school phenom.

3) Everyone I spoke to sort of expects him to go pro mainly because of #1.

barely old enough to drive wrote:

I see someone like Drew and I just feel sorry for them.

Drew is pursuing his dream, has his college paid for, and made a few million dollars and you feel sorry for him?

We polled agents in 2018 and asked them how much they though top pros made. They thought Mary Cain made $275,000 a year when she signed. That is more than they though Courtney Frerichs made. They though Alexa Efraimson made $166,000 a year. Hobbs is going to get way more than her. The companies have to pay for potential.

Flagpole wrote:

Wise Old Man wrote:

I agree 100%. Let’s see if Hocker turns pro, but if not, Kessler is not going to be dominating Hocker any time soon.

1) Hocker should turn pro.

2) Kessler just ran a time faster than Hocker ever has, and he's younger. Not sure why you are so sure he wouldn't be able to beat Hocker in the NCAA if they were both there. Hocker is great, but beating him shouldn't be the test on whether Kessler should turn pro anyway. Hocker is pro-level now. Amateur hour for Kessler to run in college.

Kessler is younger, but he’s not yet faster. 3:50 is faster than 3:34 and Hocker ran 3:53 and then 7:46 one hour later, closing both in 25. I don’t think Kessler can manage that sort of feat....yet. Pro running sounds like a boring and lonely existence for an 18 yr old. He should go to Oregon, win some national titles and team titles, have some fun, and he can still race pro in the off-season. He’ll still get paid in a couple of years. He will have saved money on school and have a degree too from a great college.

Wise words from Wise Old Man. A degree is important too. Run in college for two yrs, sign a lucrative contract and finish degree requirements in spare time. We should all be so lucky!

CORRECT! (About ALL of what you just said)

Man wejo, you and rojo have been right on the money the last couple days...almost as if you're twins or something!

Good point, but still semantics. Hobbs has a faster 1500 PR than Hocker does...and again, comparing Hobbs to one of the best NCAA runners EVER (when Hocker should go pro and probably will) is not a convincing argument. Other than for altruistic ideals, we go to college to make ourselves marketable so we can land a job and make money. Hobbs will be making a lot more money than he would with his degree. He can get that degree later or more slowly over time.