guru nation wrote:
first 5k was at 2:05 pace, 2nd one was at 2:01 pace, after that they settled in for the next 20 miles until kip dropped them with a 4:30 mile and cruised the rest of the way in. if he is fit, he wont be losing in Tokyo.
Where did you see the mile splits?
Prediction: Kipchoge won't medal because Tokyo Olympics will not happen. Cancelled in June.
It's very possible he doesn't medal.
For sure London left a scar on him. And this exhibition marathon won't heal it. So yeah, if the race goes aggressive, he may not be as confident as before London he used to be, which would (mentally) translate to an earache or something else.
On the other hand, I believe Rupp will medal.
older runner wrote:
japan can be incredibly humid and hot in the summer. like a very hot st louis. it will likely be a race that is slower (doubt anyone will go out at 1:01 or 1:02 half 1/2). this favors kipchoge and rupp. i don't know if rupp has every been in a paced marathon (2017 chicago?). i wish they would get rid of pacers. they are have ruined the sport to some extent. you cannot compare times in a paced race versus a non paced race. rupp's pr could be 2-3 minutes faster or more in a fast paced race.
I'm going to have to disagree on Rupp. His PR is as fast as he can go - in my estimation, that is. He was in a paced 2018 Chicago and didn't get on the podium. If his PR doesn't reflect his ability, why didn't he easily win it? Lack of pacers isn't what has ever slowed him down; to the contrary, he has been able to run close to his limits. He had company late in his PR race. There may have been paid pacers, too (but it was long enough ago that I don't recall).
If it was true that he could run much faster with pacers than without, and he physiologically was capable of 3 minutes faster, wouldn't he have won the fast Chicago race? (Not the impressively slow 2017 race with a very weak field that he did win - see, there were differences other than pacing between the 2 Chicagos). If he could easily break the AR, wouldn't he have done so at a paced race like Berlin? If, as I suspect, he's always wanted the AR and considered it his for the taking, he'd have it by now if he was physically able to get it. He dodges fast and deep races. He ran one - the second time in Chicago - and didn't come close to winning nor taking minutes of his PR.
All that being said, he was and still is fast. Faster than me and anyone on the Board. Just not a secret 2:01 runner who has decided not to run even 2:03.
flame_io_runner wrote:
Prediction: Kipchoge won't medal because Tokyo Olympics will not happen. Cancelled in June.
This actually seems likely to me.
But in the spirit of the thread:
Kipchoge medals.
Rupp doesn't.
Maybe more than one Japanese runner does between the Men's and Women's races.
Yeah I do not understand the site editors' lovefest with Kipchoge. He continuously got slower, running with super shoes, which these editors absolutely resent. Aside from that, it was a race set up for him to win with C level Kenyans. Nowadays, 2:04 mid with super shoes in a pancake flat course with ideal conditions is not considered to be elite. Bekele went nearly 3 minutes faster, as did Kipchoge.
Lol #58 all-time performance is "not considered elite" ok
wow21 wrote:
If it's true that he's slowing down, what a shame that he never got into a record-compliant race that had competent pacers to take him through half-way or into a fight with Bekele. Breaking 2 in my mind should have been done in a record-compliant manner -- he's the greatest marathon talent of the generation, and in my view we never really knew how much he could do.
He holds the official and unofficial world records in the event, he has an Olympic gold medal, he's won eight world major marathons, he's won 14 of 16 races, and he's not even done yet.
He's the greatest that has ever lived, and that's a title that may never seriously be challenged. We've never seen anything like him; to the point where people are questioning him after he wins a race by several minutes in 2:04.
Hard to ask for much more.
110% Agree wrote:
Yeah I do not understand the site editors' lovefest with Kipchoge. He continuously got slower, running with super shoes, which these editors absolutely resent. Aside from that, it was a race set up for him to win with C level Kenyans. Nowadays, 2:04 mid with super shoes in a pancake flat course with ideal conditions is not considered to be elite. Bekele went nearly 3 minutes faster, as did Kipchoge.
Did you watch that race? it looked like he was doing an easy long run the whole time. Before 1:20 he already came around and was running beside the pacemaker, Kacheran, he then did a little surge at about 1:35 and effortlessly dropped those two and ran on his own to the end, again, looking like a guy just doing a long run and easily won that race by over two minutes. With the Olympics three months away, it's pretty clear that's what it was, just a training run. Did you really think he should have put in an all out marathon race effort this close to the Olympics? What would have been the purpose of extending his winning margin?
Sure, by him easily jogging a 2:04:30 we don't really know how fast he is capable of right now, all we know is that he's run the fastest time of anyone in 2021. Yet people like you say he's no longer running elite times and is done? Wow. Nice way of trashing every Japanese runner, especially Suzuki who recently broke the Japanese record with his pedestrian 2:04:56. I won't even get into the fact that there are clearly no elite American marathon runners (and never have been) in your expert opinion.
Will coop wrote:
Maybe, I think Callum didn't want to leave it to a sprint at the end.
Yes, but he should have gathered himself even for 1-2 minutes before attempting to press on. Fantastic watch but I was hopign he'd sit for just a bit before going again - he had worked so hard to get back in touch with top 3. Anyhow, big fan of his and he's knocking on the door of a medal.
We're Waiting... wrote:
This actually seems likely to me.
But in the spirit of the thread:
Kipchoge medals.
Rupp doesn't.
Maybe more than one Japanese runner does between the Men's and Women's races.
Agree with all this - more likely Tokyo is cancelled than Kipchoge doesn't medal. Impressed by Rupp in 2016 but can't see him medalling. Japanese look the strongest they ever have.
The question is who will beat him?
This 2:04 was a glorified tempo long run. He puts in similar runs every Thursday.
If an American (like Galen) ran 2:04:30, there would be people on here talking about them winning Gold...
Why run yourself into the ground in what was basically a confidence-booster? He ran fast enough to achieve that. He has an Olympics to run in early August. He has to recover and then build up for the real race.
Can't understand how anyone is underwhelmed by this run. He ran 2:04.30. In a time trial, for no reason other than he wanted to test fitness before Tokyo. Imagine being able to do that. Literally nothing on the line for him, no prize money, no WMM title, no medals, no records. Just running a marathon on a disused airfield, with no crowd, as a fitness check. And he runs a time only a few people are capable of at their very best (and Rupp has never been capable of getting close to).
Yet Galen Rupp's last race was a 60 minute HM in similar conditions and some people want to pin a medal on him.
When Kipchoge has to race, his competitive instinct will kick in and he'll destroy that field.
My prediction: Kipchoge gold, Rupp not even top 10.
90s Guy wrote:
The question is who will beat him?
This 2:04 was a glorified tempo long run. He puts in similar runs every Thursday.
I personally don't think anyone is beating him. Only the Ethiopians have a hope (I don't see Cherono beating him), and who knows which Ethiopians will be there? Unless they're doing their 30km time trial (or whatever it is) in 1:28 or so I don't think there's any reason to think they've had a stronger lead up.
Prediction as it stands (totally unnecessary, but sure, why not?):
Kipchoge
Legesse
Geremew
Cherono
Hawkins
Rupp
Insert the top two Ethiopians who get selected. 2x Kenyans and 2x Eth above as lead pack, Cherono not able to maintain but EK dropping other two on last 2 miles. Rupp right behind these until the big move by the top 4 at 30-35 km, where he gets gapped. Hawkins sitting at 9-10th in a mixed group of Japanese/Ugandan/USA/Amos Kipruto until a similar point, but has observed that Rupp is now on his own, and uses him as a rabbit. They switch a little over the next 5km, working together a bit to move away from 7-10th place, but Hawkins has honed his craft and with less than a mile to go makes 15m on Rupp and keeps the lead despite Rupp closing fast on the home stretch. Anyway, that's what I dreamt... :)
110% Agree wrote:
Yeah I do not understand the site editors' lovefest with Kipchoge. He continuously got slower, running with super shoes, which these editors absolutely resent. Aside from that, it was a race set up for him to win with C level Kenyans. Nowadays, 2:04 mid with super shoes in a pancake flat course with ideal conditions is not considered to be elite. Bekele went nearly 3 minutes faster, as did Kipchoge.
Hmm,....Galen and Mo didn't manage to run 2:04 even in supershoes, the Japanese runners didn't go sub 2:06 w/o supershoes, so following your logic they are not elite.
Kipchoge had a bad day in the office in London and lost 1:09min vs. the winner. His consistency is unmatched even incl. London 2020.
Seems that you don't follow the marathon scene as much, there are not that many 2:04 races other than Dubai, Berlin and London.
Yeah, KIP is still the GOAT and it's his race to lose. The only slighty "worrying" thing is that he said he wanted to accelerate at the end and fact is he didn't do it, why ? Only he knows...With 1:02:30/1:02:00 splits there would be no questions at all.
I think that Eliud Kipchoge has clearly lost confidence from his London marathon. Anyone would. However I think he regained it because contrary to what others where saying, he didn’t race for time, he raced to win, and you could clearly see this.
do you even run? wrote:
110% Agree wrote:
Yeah I do not understand the site editors' lovefest with Kipchoge. He continuously got slower, running with super shoes, which these editors absolutely resent. Aside from that, it was a race set up for him to win with C level Kenyans. Nowadays, 2:04 mid with super shoes in a pancake flat course with ideal conditions is not considered to be elite. Bekele went nearly 3 minutes faster, as did Kipchoge.
Did you watch that race? it looked like he was doing an easy long run the whole time. Before 1:20 he already came around and was running beside the pacemaker, Kacheran, he then did a little surge at about 1:35 and effortlessly dropped those two and ran on his own to the end, again, looking like a guy just doing a long run and easily won that race by over two minutes. With the Olympics three months away, it's pretty clear that's what it was, just a training run. Did you really think he should have put in an all out marathon race effort this close to the Olympics? What would have been the purpose of extending his winning margin?
Sure, by him easily jogging a 2:04:30 we don't really know how fast he is capable of right now, all we know is that he's run the fastest time of anyone in 2021. Yet people like you say he's no longer running elite times and is done? Wow. Nice way of trashing every Japanese runner, especially Suzuki who recently broke the Japanese record with his pedestrian 2:04:56. I won't even get into the fact that there are clearly no elite American marathon runners (and never have been) in your expert opinion.
Exactly this, he basically jogged it in for 2.04.30. What are these people on thinking he won't challenge if not win gold this year? If anything this race shows he is without doubt favourite to win.
It seems he is over the hill and you can not ignore his age. I remember when Haile got to this point in his career he did a couple marathons he won in around 2:06 against inferior guys but wasn't able to win against top-tier competition in Berlin or New York. It will really seems to me that Kipchoge is reaching that point.
That being said in Olympics is a tactical race and each country is limited to 3 entries. Ethiopia and Kenya always screw up their choices. Kipchoges experience bodes well in a tactical setting. Kipchoge is definitely the favorite going in as there is not any other guy with the resume and consistency to take the favorite title from him unless maybe Kandie makes the jump to the full. But Kipchoge is not an overwhelming favorite like he was in 2016 and the favorite almost never wins the Olympics. The field is a safer bet but if you had to bet on one you'd have to go with Kipchoge. My bet is he medals but I think someone else sneaks in for the win.