Hobbes Kessler should 110% go pro

Jakob was making World teams as a high schooler and had run 3:31 and 13:17. Nobody would suggest that he should have gone to college. That would have been a joke. Jakob could have won NCAA championships as a high school junior. That's the only scenario when a distance runner should go pro, when they are already making World teams and running in the NCAA would be a joke.

Now, 3:57 for the mile and 8:39 for 2 mile is great for Kessler, but it's not even competitive in the NCAA. As a pro he'd just be spinning his wheels for 3-4 years. Might as well go to college and get some competition that's more at his level first.

` wrote:

Now, 3:57 for the mile and 8:39 for 2 mile is great for Kessler, but it's not even competitive in the NCAA. As a pro he'd just be spinning his wheels for 3-4 years. Might as well go to college and get some competition that's more at his level first.

What about in between? Should say webb have gone pro? Is 5th at the US trials good enough?

Obviously the amount of money matters. If nike offers you a 5 year/10m contract, you sign the line. 5 year/500k? A heck of a lot easier to turn down. If you were a shoe company how much would you pay for some HS distance guy? What are the odds of him making an wc/olympic team in the next 5 years? 10%?

vacccccc wrote:

How is Rupp flourishing? A 60:22 half? That’s a fairly average performance for him. Not to say that Mike Smith isn’t doing a good job. We just don’t have any real data points yet.

It's a very solid half solo. He smoked everyone in the Olympic Trials, looking easy on a very tough course. Yes, that's somewhat expected, but he dominated. Certainly, he's been healthier than he was.

As for the Reed Brown hater...he was 18 and 10 months and he did it without the super-spikes. I agree Kessler is more talented, but I was responding to someone who brought up the Slagowski comparison. Brown has shown NCAA can be a strong move for guys who are sub-4 but not Alan Webb. If Kessler is as good as people seem to think, he should have a first two years a la Cole Hocker and have lucrative contracts waiting for him.

` wrote:

Jakob was making World teams as a high schooler and had run 3:31 and 13:17. Nobody would suggest that he should have gone to college. That would have been a joke. Jakob could have won NCAA championships as a high school junior. That's the only scenario when a distance runner should go pro, when they are already making World teams and running in the NCAA would be a joke.

Now, 3:57 for the mile and 8:39 for 2 mile is great for Kessler, but it's not even competitive in the NCAA. As a pro he'd just be spinning his wheels for 3-4 years. Might as well go to college and get some competition that's more at his level first.

Two thoughts:

1. 3:57 is certainly competitive in college. He might take his lumps and get bounced in a prelim at NCAAs, but in time trial events he'd certainly be in the mix against all but a few guys. He'd qualify for Nationals/Regionals, and have a chance to score in Conference Meets etc. Teare/Hocker are somewhat outliers, but traditionally being only a few seconds faster than Hobbs ran is in the mix to win a national title.

2. Feels like this is somewhat contradicting myself, but Jakob a couple years ago running in the NCAA might *not* be as big of a joke as you make it seem in one respect. In Championship races, Jakob seems to struggle to run his best race even against inferior competition. Within some of these European meets, he's going against guys who are not in a world-beating form or that fast and there's a lot of dicey moments. So, yes in time trial meets Jakob would be with the pros and well ahead of fellow collegiates. But 2017-18 Jakob in a NCAA championship style mile/1500 I'm not sure the races are a joke at all.

Watch that 8:39 race. He can run 3:53 right now and 3:35 this summer.

Go run fast and jump wrote:

Go pro because maybe you aren't a real talent and that will be revealed during college. Hunter was a genius to get the contract he got. Where is Slagowski or Mason? But Hunter has college paid and $1M.

$1m? I heard it was something crazy like $4M.

That is honestly what I heard. $100k per year salary for 10 years plus any college costs.

Go run fast and jump wrote:

Watch that 8:39 race. He can run 3:53 right now and 3:35 this summer.

No. I'm not giving him times that he hasn't run yet. He has to run them first. I don't care how "easy it looked".

Go run fast and jump wrote:

That is honestly what I heard. $100k per year salary for 10 years plus any college costs.

Yeah idk where people are pulling these absurd numbers out of their a**

I thought from a training/development perspective it made more sense for Hunter to go to Oregon but financially you can't walk away from a deal like that especially since he was clearly focused on becoming a pro.

I usually would side with go to college for a variety of reasons but this situation gives me pause. One of the biggest differences for Hobbs vs Hunter is that he already has a pro level coach who could guide him through that level of competition with Warhurst and a strong training group. I'm a huge fan of NAU and everything that Smith is doing but I don't know if they are the best fit for a miler (granted he has coached a NCAA champ). It is hard to tell how much of a strength runner Kessler is without seeing what he did in a normal XC/Footlocker/NXN year as a basis for comparison to some of the other names on this list but that 2 mile is impressive.

The other difference is people forget that getting a pro deal isn't just about running fast. How many NCAA guys had run as fast as Hunter but would never get close to his deal. A big part of that is upside/potential but you can't neglect how marketable he was. Coming off of one of the bigger HS seasons ever he was as well known as a HS runner can be in modern times, he wasn't on Letterman but pretty social media famous to other HS kids which is a target demographic of shoe companies. I don't know that in this abbreviated covid year Hobbs is a household name that would command the kind of contract it would take to make going pro worth it

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Go run fast and jump wrote:

Watch that 8:39 race. He can run 3:53 right now and 3:35 this summer.

No. I'm not giving him times that he hasn't run yet. He has to run them first. I don't care how "easy it looked".

I wholeheartedly agree, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he ran 3:37, and, if he does, he should go pro. A 3:55 miler (or better) doesn’t have much to gain from college, other than a degree and socialization, but Kessler can get both of those as a part-time MU student.

Ultimately, it’s his decision obviously, but he should have options. I’m hoping this kid makes it interesting in the 1500 trials.

A 3:55 miler (or better) doesn’t have much to gain from college, other than a degree and socialization, but Kessler can get both of those as a part-time MU student.

A part time UM student, but that assumes he would be accepted at Michigan. That is not a given. It's a competitive school. He wouldn't get athletic department admission help though the school probably would relax standards for someone who would favorably promote the school during media coverage of events, even indirectly. I have no idea his academics, probably very good and maybe he was accepted. I'm simply saying you can't just go to UM. He could also enroll at Eastern Michigan where his Dad ran.

When his Dad graduated, he ran the sub-elite road racing scene around AA for a while and then moved to Flagstaff for a couple years and took up rock climbing. He the moved back to Michigan and continued running and ice climbing waterfalls. Running at NAU is full circle for the family in a sense and provides overall quality of life pursuits and experiences. Hobbs literally grew up hearing stories how his Dad lived in Flagstaff and then moved back to Michigan with his mom to be near family and start a family. That's a strong narrative.

I wonder how Warhurts experience with Alan Webbs freshman year at Michigan would influence such a decision.

No money out there wrote:

5000m fan wrote:

Why fix what ain’t broke? Surely a shoe company would pay for his college and he could stay training with warhurst. He’s better than drew hunter was in HS and adidas gave him a ton of money. Discus

Why would a company throw $50k+ at a 3:57 miler? There are a lot of people in NCAA right now who can run that and will not be offered anywhere near that. In another year or two there will be yet another 3:57 high school miler. Just because someone has run 3:57 in the mile does not guarantee they're going to run 3:52 in the mild which is what it would take to be in any conversation for making a world team. It is very hard to get a contract these days.

Why would a company throw $50k at a 3:57 miler? Adidas threw $4 million at Hunter! Why? Because he is a business, man. His brand sells shoes.

Now, you can argue that Hunter has been a flop for Adidas. He hasn't accomplished much as a pro (certainly not for what they pay him), and he has turned into a bit of a weirdo, hence the stunted growth of his instagram following. So maybe he's not worth the money. But IMO given how popular was and what I think his potential still is, it was a worthy investment/gamble on their part.

Being a little more removed from the running world now, I don't know if this new kid on the block has a big following. But if he does, $50k is nothing. Frankly, I had an offer of a $45k job in a small town when I was 20 and hadn't finished college, so that's not worth it for the kid IMO. But if he's offered more than $100k for multiple years it's something to consider.

As long as he doesn't sign with Tinman. I'm sorry, but I just can't stand the guy!

I don't really disagree with this but it's kind of missing the point. If you have an opportunity to take a pro contract, you should at least consider it because 1) that money might not be there after you graduate & 2) college coaches are focused on scoring points at national meets which means peaking 3x/year which might not be good for every runner.

There is a cost to leaving money on the table. Have guaranteed income for 4 years now, knowing that you might not have a contract after college or a lesser one if things don't pan out.

No doubt you'd miss out on some things but I really don't get the camp that thinks they know 100% what is best for a kid when ya'll think what's best is no income & entering the NCAA system.

As a fan of running, and someone who ONLY cares about seeing runners get faster, I am ignoring the money here. I think for 99% of runners, going to college is better for their future success as a runner. Now, if a shoe company threw me millions of dollars to go pro, I might not care what's better for my development.

People be forgetting running is the sport he's second best at. He could be a sponsored rock climber easily and training for tokyo

I hate Tinman! wrote:

As long as he doesn't sign with Tinman. I'm sorry, but I just can't stand the guy!

There is no danger of that happening.

When you date a 10 you don’t leave her for a 3