NCAA Womens XC National Championships!!! Predictions, Discussion, Analysis!!!

Didn't know this until viewing the video below . . . Donoghu caught Herberg down the final home stretch (see short clip of finish) but was gassed by the effort to catch up so Herberg held her off.

https://pac-12.com/videos/washingtons-haley-herberg-her-wire-wire-title-victory-2020-pac-12-womens-cross-country

Herberg is a 15:45 /5k track girl . . . or was . . . likely a lot better now . . .

More ha ha's, as in, I don't understand this . . .

Herberg was 20th in 20:18 at the Battle Born Collegiate XC Challenge on Feb 19 . . . Donoghu won that race in 19:44 . . .

Bower Man wrote:

More ha ha's, as in, I don't understand this . . .

Herberg was 20th in 20:18 at the Battle Born Collegiate XC Challenge on Feb 19 . . . Donoghu won that race in 19:44 . . .

I think she was sandbagging a bit in the other race. She certainly didn't start the previous race the same way.

No one thought she was going to hold up. She was very composed at the end. Good race!!

Those times are very surprising though...I thought this would be a slower race than LV.

Who looks silly now? 115 looks spot on.

Bower Man wrote:

Didn't know this until viewing the video below . . . Donoghu caught Herberg down the final home stretch (see short clip of finish) but was gassed by the effort to catch up so Herberg held her off.

https://pac-12.com/videos/washingtons-haley-herberg-her-wire-wire-title-victory-2020-pac-12-womens-cross-country

Herberg is a 15:45 /5k track girl . . . or was . . . likely a lot better now . . .

Good to see them maintain social distancing on the cross country course.

So what's the scuttlebutt after selection Sunday? I don't think Dominique Claremont is injured for NC State. Anyone know for sure? I think she's just pulling a Rocky 4 type training Style. Is there any good previews on the individual side? Flotrack?

I am still doing some thinking but at this point

Fl State seems to be missing Coggins (?), but Churchhill and Skyring have been running much better than they showed in the Fall. BYU seems to be missing Orton

For the women I have got a partial list in buckets of projected finish

NM/Stanford favorites if BYU does not have Orton, Fl State does not have Coggins

Alabama/NC State/Ga Tech/Arkansas assumes Gitari is running for Al, no Clairmonte for NC State, Arkansas impacted by Indoor focus

BYU/Colorado/NAU/Michigan State/Fl State assumes no Orton (BYU w Orton likely favorite)

Then the rest

If any of the "missing" runners returns that team moves to favorite in my opinion.

FastTuohy wrote:

I am still doing some thinking but at this point

Fl State seems to be missing Coggins (?), but Churchhill and Skyring have been running much better than they showed in the Fall. BYU seems to be missing Orton

For the women I have got a partial list in buckets of projected finish

NM/Stanford favorites if BYU does not have Orton, Fl State does not have Coggins

Alabama/NC State/Ga Tech/Arkansas assumes Gitari is running for Al, no Clairmonte for NC State, Arkansas impacted by Indoor focus

BYU/Colorado/NAU/Michigan State/Fl State assumes no Orton (BYU w Orton likely favorite)

Then the rest

If any of the "missing" runners returns that team moves to favorite in my opinion.

I also come up with a winning score close to 200 points, which seems high, but that is what I come up with.

195 is the highest winning score for women.

Tuffy wrote:

MidFootStriker wrote:

If NC State is healthy. Claremont and Steelman both around 10. Camille 15. And then there four and five 25 + 35.

That would put them around 95. I think the winter is going to be way higher than you estimated. Probably something like 70 to a hundred

No Clairmonte for NC State. That pretty much takes them out of contention. We'll probably see Tuohy but she is still working herself back into shape after a long recovery from injury. They have the depth but l thinking losing your #1 is going to be too much to overcome.

Curious about Clairmont...is she not racing the XC? The NCAA XC show made it sound like she was running., and I haven't seen anything saying otherwise.

There will be no Dominique or Starliper for NC State, which means they are probably out of title contention. But they should make the Podium based on their depth and pack.

I really hope as some have predicted that the women’s winning score is 195-200 points, if that happens NC State will win!!!! Without Starliper and Dominique the Wolfpack can still be under 150 points. I hope you all are right with the high score! But I think Stanford is strong up front and will find a fifth and win big.

I never saw anything saying Clairmonte was out....was this announced by the team or just a LetsRun prediction??

Too bad about Starliper, I had thought she was close to returning weeks ago. Those two would have made NC State serious contenders.

What happened to Starliper? She was one of the most promising recruits from last year but has completely vanished.

like tuohy, starliper was injured coming to NC State. The coach did the right thing and shut them down right off the bat to heal. Tuohy just got back to racing, but Starliper has yet to make an appearance

After reading recent articles about who's doing the indoor/xc double, likely that Arkansas & BYU will not come to Stillwater as their focus is on the indoor nationals.

Maybe the women will fill up their box(s) at the starting line to try to do something that's never been done before -- and probably will never happen again -- but just cannot see them being competitive as a team(s) although one or two individuals certainly could shine.

So, believe the team battle for gold is between UNM & Stanford.

Bower Man I wrote:

After reading recent articles about who's doing the indoor/xc double, likely that Arkansas & BYU will not come to Stillwater as their focus is on the indoor nationals.

Maybe the women will fill up their box(s) at the starting line to try to do something that's never been done before -- and probably will never happen again -- but just cannot see them being competitive as a team(s) although one or two individuals certainly could shine.

So, believe the team battle for gold is between UNM & Stanford.

I don't think any of BYU's XC runners are running in the Indoor meet. BYU's very good mid distance runners do not have XC eligibility (except Orton who seems MIA for several months). I think Arkansas will show and perhaps podium but I agree the top 2 teams at this point are Stanford and NM. NC State? I wish I knew who will run. But with what I know, agree on NM and Stanford.

OhNo NC State wrote:

like tuohy, starliper was injured coming to NC State. The coach did the right thing and shut them down right off the bat to heal. Tuohy just got back to racing, but Starliper has yet to make an appearance

Starliper said somewhere she got a stress reaction in her lower leg last Spring or Summer. If she was running well enough to run a 6K I would have thought we would have seen her somewhere on a track. I wonder if Tuohy has done enough mileage to run a 6K.

"Faced with a difficult choice the four coaches on yesterday's video conference --which also included Arkansas's head men's coach Chris Bucknam and Texas head coach Edrick Floreal-- said they had no choice but to prioritize indoor track over cross country. They said that they would put their full efforts into the indoor meet, and in the case of Bucknam and Harter would decide on Saturday whether to take their Razorback teams to Stillwater. It's not what they wanted to do.

"Well, we're just focused on Fayetteville right now," said Bucknam who chose his words carefully. He added: "It seems like somebody was forcing us to make decisions to pick one or the other, and I'm disappointed with that."

Harter agreed.

"Well I know for our situation it forced us to make some decisions," Harter said. He continued: "This is the traditional time of year for indoor track, and we're sticking with that as our priority."

The situation is particularly difficult for the Razorback women. Harter's team dominated the SEC Cross Country Championships last October, scoring just 41 points and beating second place Alabama by a comfortable 16 points. His best student-athletes --Lauren Gregory, Logan Morris, Abby Gray, Taylor Ewart, and Krissy Gear-- all finished in the top-11. Gregory, Morris, Gray, and Gear are all entered in the indoor championships. It would be very difficult for them to rebound and run again on the tough Stillwater course next Monday. Harter is frustrated that he has to choose.

"I don't think that anyone stepped forward and told us why they sandwiched them so close together when we have plenty of time," he lamented. "It could have been much more of a true championship at cross country nationals if we had just given more space between the two championships."

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