Select BTC Runners Chasing 10k Standards @ The TEN (2/20) - Official Discussion Thread

Bower Man Redux wrote:

Re: Vanessa Fraser. . .

Yes, too bad about the tibial stress reaction at the end of December which as caused her to miss a month of training.

However, she's been up in Flagstaff all this time & is back training, albeit not full-bore with everyone else.

If the Stanford Invite is held in early April as is tentatively planned, expect to see her race there. 5k or 10k, don't know.

If Stanford cancels its outdoor schedule, then Sound Running's spring circuit starting mid-May will provide plenty of distance racing opportunities.

Agreed. I'd like to see her get a shot at it. I'd also like to see how she does at the 10k olympic trials. I think she has a much better shot in that field than the 5k.

Outside of Galen Rupp, the US is pretty pathetic in the 10K. Rupp and Solinski are the only USA runners to break 27 minutes.....

Meanwhile the world record is like 26;11! Our guys run 28.......maybe 27:30.....

One name absent from the W10k entry list is Shelby Houlihan.

She's mentioned in the past her interest in running the 10k and was even scheduled to run the 10k leg @ the Michigan Ekiden back in October before the team withdrew due to C19 concerns.

So, appears Shelby will remain focused on the 1500 & 5k at least for this year.

(Note: on the LRC weekly podcast, RoJo mentioned Shelby would be concentrating on the 5k this year. Even Jerry texted her last fall, suggesting she could break the W5k WR. However, she's also has stated her favorite event remains the 1500. With Hassan focusing on the 5k-10k @ Tokyo, Shelby would ostensibly be the 1500 bronze medal favorite. She can't run both in Tokyo. We'll see.)

Her IG post today shows her doing a speed workout by herself. Since fall, she's been running her fast stuff w/Karissa & Elise. With the latter two now leaning more towards the 5k - 10k, suspect Shelby will have Gabriela & Sinclaire to keep her company as future speed sessions partners.

Above poster who stated "pacers will be unnamed BTC women" was correct:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CLVFfyFnVh5/

Happy to see Fraser ease back into the mix. Still has a chance for Tokyo w/Trials starting in four months.

Now, will Jerry bring Mo & Lopez out of hibernation to rabbit the men's 10k?

Bower Man IV wrote:

Above poster who stated "pacers will be unnamed BTC women" was correct:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CLVFfyFnVh5/

Happy to see Fraser ease back into the mix. Still has a chance for Tokyo w/Trials starting in four months.

Now, will Jerry bring Mo & Lopez out of hibernation to rabbit the men's 10k?

No.

wazzu1452 wrote:

Outside of Galen Rupp, the US is pretty pathetic in the 10K. Rupp and Solinski are the only USA runners to break 27 minutes.....

Meanwhile the world record is like 26;11! Our guys run 28.......maybe 27:30.....

Lomong at 27:04

Kipchirchir at 27:07

Korir at 27:20

All Active, granted its not Kenya, Ethiopia or Uganda as far as top runners, but USA is the best in North America, better than any non African Country, Japan has 1 Man under 27:20, Britain has Farah 2nd best active is 27:26, USA if you go 3 deep ACTIVE runners we are probably 4th best and top non African Country.

douglas burke wrote:

wazzu1452 wrote:

Outside of Galen Rupp, the US is pretty pathetic in the 10K. Rupp and Solinski are the only USA runners to break 27 minutes.....

Meanwhile the world record is like 26;11! Our guys run 28.......maybe 27:30.....

Lomong at 27:04

Kipchirchir at 27:07

Korir at 27:20

All Active, granted its not Kenya, Ethiopia or Uganda as far as top runners, but USA is the best in North America, better than any non African Country, Japan has 1 Man under 27:20, Britain has Farah 2nd best active is 27:26, USA if you go 3 deep ACTIVE runners we are probably 4th best and top non African Country.

Top non African country with East African runners.

If no Mo or Lopez, that leaves Evan & Sean as the only remaining rabbit candidates on the team.

Possible that runners outside BTC will be called into rabbit duty

27:28 Oly standard is 13:44/5k so the rabbits have to be fairly accomplished to hit those splits.

Jager rolled his ankle pretty bad the other day, so I wouldn't expect to see him. McGorty seems pretty capable of that pace.

Pretty surprised to see Elise Cranny among the actual racers, only because she was so recently oriented toward the 1500. Willing to bet Schweizer and Cranny go 1-2. McColgan could break that up, though -- those seem like the top three.

Cheserek and Marc Scott top two on the men's side. Hard to pick third place. True or Kincaid? maybe even Fisher.

This is supposed to be Jorgensen's event and she's been at home instead of altitude. Let's see if she can pull off a decent time.

Predictions:

Men (27:28 Olympic standard)

1. Marc Scott 27:11 (13:44/13:27)

2. Grant Fisher 27:14

3. Edward Cheserek 27:18

4. Woody Kincaid 27:28

5. Ben True 27:40

6. Kieran Tuntivate 28:05

7. Reid Buchanan 28:12

8. Chris Derrick 28:26

Women (31:25 Olympic standard)

1. Karissa Schweizer 30:44 (15:36/15:08)

2. Elise Cranny 31:02

3. Eilish McColgan 31:11

4. Emily Infeld 31:22

5. Marielle Hall 31:35

6. Kim Conley 31:55

7. Gwen Jorgensen 31:58

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Predictions:

Men (27:28 Olympic standard)

1. Marc Scott 27:11 (13:44/13:27)

2. Grant Fisher 27:14

3. Edward Cheserek 27:18

4. Woody Kincaid 27:28

5. Ben True 27:40

6. Kieran Tuntivate 28:05

7. Reid Buchanan 28:12

8. Chris Derrick 28:26

Women (31:25 Olympic standard)

1. Karissa Schweizer 30:44 (15:36/15:08)

2. Elise Cranny 31:02

3. Eilish McColgan 31:11

4. Emily Infeld 31:22

5. Marielle Hall 31:35

6. Kim Conley 31:55

7. Gwen Jorgensen 31:58

I like these press but I think the bottom 4 on the men's side will be a bit faster. True's gotta be going for that Only standard, I think Tuntivate could dip under 28, Derrick I think closer to 28 (who knows though, he hasn't looked good...). No idea about Buchanan really.

Bower Man III wrote:

One name absent from the W10k entry list is Shelby Houlihan.

She's mentioned in the past her interest in running the 10k and was even scheduled to run the 10k leg @ the Michigan Ekiden back in October before the team withdrew due to C19 concerns.

So, appears Shelby will remain focused on the 1500 & 5k at least for this year.

Her IG post today shows her doing a speed workout by herself. Since fall, she's been running her fast stuff w/Karissa & Elise. With the latter two now leaning more towards the 5k - 10k, suspect Shelby will have Gabriela & Sinclaire to keep her company as future speed sessions partners.

Anyone know why Shelby didn't race the recently with the other BTC girls in the 3000? Seemed like the entire crew was out there. I thought she might be nursing an injury but maybe not.

And the BTC men's rabbit is . . . Sean McGorty:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CLXoOq1nPP1/

Per her IG posts, nothing wrong with Shelby. Just waiting for the right moment to strike . . .

And, helping out Vanessa Fraser w/pacing duties will be . . . Courtney Frerichs:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CLXuNByD92_/

Expect the rabbits to bring the field thru 5k in approx 15:42 - 15:45 (roughly 31:25 pace). If runners can hold that pace thru 9k, then expect kicks over last 2.5 laps to bring the winner home in around 31:10 - -more or less the same time Rachel Schneider ran to win the Track Meet 10k back in December.

Believe Fraser will drop out at 5k but Frerichs will continue on a bit longer . . .

borrowed_idea wrote:

This is why people hate on the BTC, there is an excellent opportunity a week later, but nope, gotta do our own small thing

Is this a joke? We are having two elite 10ks in this country on back to back weekends?

As a fan, I'm outraged. As a coach, I think I'm going to side with Jerry here. The weather in Texas is far too unpredictable to be relied on.

My parents live in Austin. My father slept in the car in 10 degree temps two nights ago as they didn't have power. That being said, next weekend looks lideal with highs of 65-60.

THat being said, this is a PERFECT example of how our sport is screwed. With no commissioner, everyone does exactly what's in their self interest. We have Footlocker. Rather than add a team component to it, Nike takes it for themselves.

Rather than have 1 10k that everyone goes to, we have to have two.

fghrunner wrote:

I have no doubt cranny and fisher are capable of running very fast 10K's, I just dont know if Jerry would have them race it since it likely wont be their olympic event

Olympic event? I think Fisher's Olympoic event will be whatever he's lucky enough to make the team in. If he can get the standard in the 10k, he's only got to beat a 2-4 people to make the team most likely. If I was him, I'd rather have two chances than just one. He's far from a lock for top 3 American on the BTC team in the 5000 - let alone the US.

Bower Man III wrote:

(Note: on the LRC weekly podcast, RoJo mentioned Shelby would be concentrating on the 5k this year. Even Jerry texted her last fall, suggesting she could break the W5k WR. However, she's also has stated her favorite event remains the 1500. With Hassan focusing on the 5k-10k @ Tokyo, Shelby would ostensibly be the 1500 bronze medal favorite. She can't run both in Tokyo. We'll see.)

I never said she'd be focused on the 5k. I may have said that's waht she should focus on. Also, I don't think Hassan has said she's focused on the 5k/10k. The quote you are referencing wasn't clear. She said "For now" which could mean just right now she's training for distance.

Pre-race insights from Emily Infeld:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CLZlQQnA_8R/

Hope in LRC's pre-race preview article we find out why The TEN is essentially going head-to-head with the TX Qualifier. Had Jesse Williams already scheduled this mini-meet before Dave Alfano announced his meet? Did Jerry originally want The TEN to be a BTC intrasquad meet like last summer's races so had Jesse set up that way?

Also, note that Jesse has the Sound Running Invite scheduled for March 6 to wrap up his "indoor" season. That meet features 800s-1500s-5ks and has already drawn athletes who otherwise would be running the TX Qualifier.

Maybe what track & field in the US needs is a meet directors association so they could better coordinate their efforts.