10 days until Monaco DL - Is Jakob Ingebrigtsen ready for a 3:29?

Thoughtsleader wrote in an earlier post:

"I think Tim's opinion of his shape will make a big difference. If pacers/Timmy go out in 55/1:51, I think there will be a gap and it will not be a good situation for Jakob with Tim slowing to win in 3:30 and Jakob in 3:32. However, if they go out sensibly in 56/1:53 with Tim acknowledging lesser shape, I like Jakob to be right on Tim's butt and they both run 3:29 high/3:30."

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You were only partly right THOUGHTSLEADER.

As you know the first lap was paced in about 52:50.

If the pacemaker had run 55 Jakob would have been right after Timothy and they would both have run considerable faster.

And they both ran 3:28 mid much faster than you predicted but very close what I predicted regarding Jakob.

I was, however, wrong about Timothy´s shape which I already have admited in another thread.

objectiveobserver wrote:

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You were only partly right THOUGHTSLEADER.

As you know the first lap was paced in about 52:50.

1. If the pacemaker had run 55 Jakob would have been right after Timothy and they would both have run considerable faster.

2. And they both ran 3:28 mid much faster than you predicted but very close what I predicted regarding Jakob.

I was, however, wrong about Timothy´s shape which I already have admited in another thread.

Well, a couple notes.

1. We don't know about that Jakob. We should note that at 800, Cheruiyot came through in a very reasonable 1:51.4 or so and despite that Jakob was not attached to him and came through in 1:52.0 or so instead. He was following the lights and not Cheruiyot it appears to me. I am not convinced if Cheruiyot ran 55/1:51 that Jakob would follow right on his butt as you say.

2. Yes, Cheruiyot going so hard at the beginning actually helped Jakob in some ways. I think it took the decision away from Jakob. It was lights not pacemakers and there really wasn't any call to be made there. He ran great, and Cheruiyot's managing of the race was better than I expected. The second pacer doing a great job and taking him to 1100 helped a ton. He regathered the second lap and instead of easing down from 800-1100 he ran a very steady 300 behind the pacer that set the tone for a controlled, but fast last 400.

3. The biggest thing that was wrong was your assessment of Timothy's fitness. Yes, I was wrong on how fast they'd run, but the pace was so wild that it allowed Jakob to do a pure Time Trial, and the second pacer salvaged the race for Timothy to allow him to nearly PB despite a dumb first 400.

I still believe that with a mediocre second pacer, Jakob pulls right up to Cheruiyot at the bell in 3:35 and its a tactical last 400 with a time more like 3:30. Instead, it worked out much better.

I shall remind the board that Jakob is a mere 1:46 runner over 800m, while Cheruiyot is a 1:43 runner. That level of talent will shine, as it has consistently, over the last 150m.

So your definition of talent is who is the better 800m runner?!

What do you think about Usain Bolt, El-Guerrouj, Bekele, Kipchoge and other of the Greats?

And of course Jakob can run seconds faster in the 800m if he cares to run it again in a couple of years in the HIGH SEASON.

objectiveobserver wrote:

And of course Jakob can run seconds faster in the 800m if he cares to run it again in a couple of years in the HIGH SEASON.

How fast do you think he can go? It's just worth noting that Cheruiyot ran his 1:43.1 in a solo, unpaced race in Kenya. I'd tend to think he is a 1:42-mid guy. Jakob is going to run some absurd 3,000 and 5,000s before he's done, but I'm not sure a sub-1:44 in his skillset. That doesn't mean he can't outkick Cheruiyot one day. Manangoi used to and while some might say that's due to his 400m speed (46 in Kenya as a youngster) or drugs, it just shows that Cheruiyot isn't a completely lethal finisher.

So what was Cheriyuts best 800 time outside of Kenya?

Hasn’t contested one. Would be fun to see him take one on or a 1000.

I believe he might even skip 3:29 and go down to 3:28 ;-)

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

"How fast do you think he can go? It's just worth noting that Cheruiyot ran his 1:43.1 in a solo, unpaced race in Kenya. I'd tend to think he is a 1:42-mid guy. Jakob is going to run some absurd 3,000 and 5,000s before he's done, but I'm not sure a sub-1:44 in his skillset. That doesn't mean he can't outkick Cheruiyot one day. Manangoi used to and while some might say that's due to his 400m speed (46 in Kenya as a youngster) or drugs, it just shows that Cheruiyot isn't a completely lethal finisher. "

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I think Jakob will be able to at least go 2 seconds faster. That means he will be faster than Centro and Engels. In my opinion Jakob is already in another league than the two Americans and he will - barring injury and illness - be much better on all distances from 1500m and up.

But to the 800m: I think Jakob´s topspeed will increase as he finished his physical development and with increased endurance as well he will possibly run faster in the 800m than most people has predicted recently on these pages. I won´t be surprised if he goes below 1:44 if he makes an effort to train his speed as he reportedly has started to do already.

objectiveobserver wrote:

I think Jakob will be able to at least go 2 seconds faster. That means he will be faster than Centro and Engels. In my opinion Jakob is already in another league than the two Americans and he will - barring injury and illness - be much better on all distances from 1500m and up.

But to the 800m: I think Jakob´s topspeed will increase as he finished his physical development and with increased endurance as well he will possibly run faster in the 800m than most people has predicted recently on these pages. I won´t be surprised if he goes below 1:44 if he makes an effort to train his speed as he reportedly has started to do already.

No argument here on the Centro/Engels point. Engels definitely is more of an 800/1500 guy. Centrowitz is a more balanced runner overall - I'd say his 13:00 5K last year to me was surprising even in a perfectly-engineered time trial. So, I agree Jakob equalling or bettering their PBs at 800 (both 1:44.6) is something I could see. It's clear to me, though, he will be able to destroy them at 5,000 though. I think he could run 12:50-55 right now, and well into the 12:40s as he progresses. Considering he can medal in that event if the schedule allows for it down the road, it's where I expect to see a huge breakthrough. While he can work on speed, him making a concerted effort to run 1:43 point is not something I'm sure that would be worth his while.

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