If Mo Ahmed ran 12:47, i'm convinced Cheptegei can run 12:35 in Monaco!!

Rigolidion wrote:

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

Time will tell guys, August 14 is soon enough. Addy Ruiter is one of the most intelligent coaches i have ever seen and talked to, he repeatedly said Joshua's talent is unparalleled and if he stays injury free is destined for greatness. Until now, every single major goal Ruiter set, Joshua accomplished. Addy would never advise him to publicly say he is going for the WR unless he thinks Joshua has a far greater chance of breaking it than failing. I'll go with a negative split and a new WR 12:33-12:35. He is on par with Bekele, Komen, Geb regarding talent, with better technology and coaching, very simple.

All the times that Cheptegai has run so far are much much softer than the 5000m world record. Including his Valencia road record that lasted only one month and was crushed by Kipruto.

You think his 12:51 road WR is soft?

You think 26:38 is soft?

birdbeard wrote:

Rigolidion wrote:

All the times that Cheptegai has run so far are much much softer than the 5000m world record. Including his Valencia road record that lasted only one month and was crushed by Kipruto.

You think his 12:51 road WR is soft?

You think 26:38 is soft?

Compared to 12:37 on the track yes it is.

I have for a long time discarded road records since the shoes evolution and the profiles of the races are such big factors. That's why all records are set in Berlin for the marathon and why the two last 10k road records have been set at Valencia, (with the women also posting a lot of the best ever times in the same race).

For another exemple, Julian Wanders has a record of 27:19 on the track, set last year in Hengelo, in a very fast race (3 ethiopians under 26:50, 3 other in 26:53, 54, and 56).

But he has a record of 27:13 on the road, set this year in the same race than Kipruto at Valencia. The fact that Kipruto put 14 seconds on Cheptegai in the same race profile one month later is quite telling that his time was soft.

Wait and see, 12:35 is calling.

Rhonex and Joshua didn't run on the same course at all, Ibercaja was faster, less curves, less wind, better temperature. Cheptegei ran to beat Komon's record, surely he could have gone even faster. And you also forget he's getting better with each race, so prepare to be astounded.

I posted earlier in the the thread, but Bekele PRs and accomplishments just before his 12:37 are almost identical to Cheptegei's. He may be ready for the jump.

I also do not think his Doha time was soft. 26:48 in a championship, final 1000 in 2:28, final 2000 in 5:08. Pretty legendary. Not quite Bekele in 2003 Paris, but nothing is.

Here's what I posted a week or so ago in another thread on the WR attempt:

Before he set the records, Bekele had run 7:30i, 12:49i, and 26:49. Cheptegei has ran 7:33, 12:57 (track), 12:51 (road) and 26:48. Both were world XC champs. I guess it just remains to be seen if he can make the jump. One thing that should be mentioned is that Bekeled closed the 2003 WC 10,000m in 12:57 before he set the records--that's Cheptegei's 5000m PR right now.

Bekele went 2:33, 2:32, 2:32, 2:30, 2:29. That's about as good as you can do it. He did have to do it alone from 2K onward so there's a chance if Cheptegei has someone to drag him to 3500 or 4000 he would have a shot. Definitely not a good one.

Don't get me wrong, I rate Cheptegai a lot, he is a great talent, one of the few very bests of this generation and I expect him to become Olympic champion at 10 000m.

However, stating that he is likely to beat the 5 000m world record, or even that he will easily get it in "12:32-35" like I read here is unreal. That mean that you think that Cheptegai is a talent a step above what Bekele, Gebre and Komen were.

He's not quite on Bekele / Geb level yet, but he's getting there, he's young, and Bekele's WR was basically solo, so if conditions were perfect he would have a shot. Not a great shot, but a shot.

Cheptegei closed 2019 World's 10000m in 13:14/4:03/55.4 for 26:48, while Farah in 2017 closed in 13:13/4:05/55.7 (his slowest close but fastest champs in 26:49).

Cheptegei still doesn't have the real bang-bang finish to compete with a Bekele or Geb at their best, but he is very, very good at a long sustained pace, so I can see low 12:40s this year after that 12:51.

NNPower wrote:

Unless bad weather, with the help of 1-2 pacemakers + wavelights, Joshua can't fail in beating the WR. I'd say he runs 12:34 with a ridiculous 57.xx last lap if everything goes well.

This kind of thinking never fails to confound me on these boards. It’s like when people argued Drew Hunter would break Webb’s HS record because his PR going into the Pre Classic was faster than Webb’s had been. What Moh did running 12:47 was a monumental improvement in his PR. It’s the kind of thing you just don’t see that often as a track fan and it doesn’t translate to anyone else knocking 10+ seconds off their PR. I don’t mean to be pessimistic and I’d be thrilled to see Jakob, Joshua or anyone else have this kid of breakthrough but giving them credit for it before the fact makes it seem like you don’t actually understand how special and rare something like what Moh just did actually is.

If anyone in this era breaks the world record it will be Kejelcha. 3:47 mile and a 12:47 5k. Kid has wheels.

Oh yeah also he’s only ran two 10ks. Ran 26:49 for both of them. The second being the Doha championship placing second. With a 59:05 half marathon to boot. Expect many records to fall

I think the real take home from this 12:47 is not that Mo Ahmed is an all time talent, but that a fair number of runners could break 12:50 in a perfect race. This was basically breaking 2 with legal pacing; run on his home track, at a meet set up specifically by his team for him to run well, no call room or check in, perfect pacing by four teammates (who all waited for him to establish himself inside before gradually moving in front of him), etc etc.

This was a cool performance and it was great that BTC put this on, but let's not pretend that this is the same as running 12:47 in a DL race.

cheesewiz wrote:

If anyone in this era breaks the world record it will be Kejelcha. 3:47 mile and a 12:47 5k. Kid has wheels.

+1, he has a better chance than anyone else.

In 2018, he ran 7:28.00 in Gothenburg with a final 800m of 1:53.91 (54.94 last lap). Two weeks later he ran that 12:46 in Brussels in which he did all of the work after 2k. He is capable of 7:25 and 12:39.

best pro right now wrote:

cheesewiz wrote:

If anyone in this era breaks the world record it will be Kejelcha. 3:47 mile and a 12:47 5k. Kid has wheels.

+1, he has a better chance than anyone else.

In 2018, he ran 7:28.00 in Gothenburg with a final 800m of 1:53.91 (54.94 last lap). Two weeks later he ran that 12:46 in Brussels in which he did all of the work after 2k. He is capable of 7:25 and 12:39.

Kejelcha and Barega. I agree. Can't write off Barega at 3 years younger than Kejelcha. But Kejelcha has traditionally gotten the better of him thus far due to his superior speed. Kejelcha is slightly better right now but Barega has as much or more potential and may well be better in the longer events.

That said Cheptegei and Rhonex are both absolute monsters. I think some are right that they are more endurance-based, but they can still win track championships in the 5,000/10,000 for a few years before moving up to the longer stuff.

NNPower wrote:

"Why not have Ahmed in the race too?"

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I am not sure that Mo will be allowed to go to Europe!?

In the moment Europe is closed for Americans due to US´lack of control with the virus.

But perhaps Mo can go around it by going back to Canada for a while?

And the restrictions might be eased before Monaco.

For the moment the Kenyans are also held out while the Ugandans and Ethiophians are free to go.

It would be nice to see Mo in the race. And perhaps the Norwegian teenager will choose the WR record run too, especially if the Kenyans can´t run the 1500m.

I think that Halvard stated that Mo will never beat Jakob again which statement was vigorously opposed by other posters so that could be a separate fight in the race.

I AGREE WITH HALVARD!

Jakob signed up with Filip for the 1500m. Henrik is in the 5000m

Cheptegei will try to run the Monaco 5k at just below WR pacing. It remains to be seen if the pacers will do a good job, which is important. But I think Chep is capable of being ahead at 2 miles and holding on for the WR if he's 100% and everything falls into place.

That we are going to watch him go for the WR is long way from when he totally bonked in the World Cross in 2018 on his home turf. It shows how much potential he has, and he is still improving. Would be interesting to see how fast he could do a straight 1500. Hard to imagine he could approach 3:30, and certainly not Farah's 3:28.

However, Chep's got the strength, and could def be the next sub-2 marathoner if he decides to go for the $$ as international track becomes less important.

This is disrespectful. Running 12:47 and getting a bronze at a WC gets you pretty close to being an "all-time talent". Sub 2 is completely different. Moh just ran a well paced race, there were no other fancy elements to it.

If a single fast time in a time trial plus a single WC bronze is all that's required for one to be an all timer then there are quite a few of them out there. The record eligible Breaking 2 analogy is appropriate here; this was a race that was optimally set up for them to run as fast as possible, and which removed every possible variable that can interfere with performance (things that go beyond pacing).

This again is not to criticize BTC. If they're going to time trial they should try to optimize things, and it was a cool performance to see, but again this is not the same as running 12:47 in a DL race (or do you believe that all times are equal, regardless of the circumstances under which they were run?).