Down goes the Dow

Huh. Thanks for that. I hadn't heard that. Interesting.

Fortunately, you can still open a non-retirement mutual fund and put as much of your salary as you want in there.

The Roth of Obama!

Dow Jones guru are recommending shorting positions below 17430 with downside targets of 16330 and even 15860

Alternatively, if the market goes about 17430 they suggest the next points of resistance will be 17770 or 18000.

Randy Oldman wrote:

Dow Jones guru are recommending shorting positions below 17430 with downside targets of 16330 and even 15860

Alternatively, if the market goes about 17430 they suggest the next points of resistance will be 17770 or 18000.

Are you kidding me? Do you guys even listen to yourselves?

"points of resistance"

"downside targets"

Good Dog Almighty!

For the newbies reading this thread for an education, welcome to hot air central!

Take note of FP's mantra - good stuff. Mostly recognize that markets go up, they go down, but they go up more than down. Everything else on this thread - well, let's just say this why it is so easy to make fun of financial advisors.

We're entering a long (multi-year) bull run phase again, albeit choppy. It has happened 5 - 10 times over last 100 yrs or so (docs are at home, will have to re-read to get exact numbers/dates). Normally i don't think history is a great predictor of market futures, other then axiom of one crash roughly every 7 years, but the key is, the existing market pattern and setup is roughly the same as it has been just prior to previous bull runs. The pattern is secular sideways markets for 5-10 years with large dip, followed by long bull run. The setup is good P/E ratios. Now you're probably saying they P/E ratios are not what the were before previous bull runs, but there's a big difference, corporations are now accumulating cash like they never have in the past (2.3 trillion held by top 1000 FTSE corps). If the bean counters include free cash flow as part of P/E, then the numbers start to look similar, not quite, but getting there. When this cash is put into use it will stimulate the markets, or also be used for dividends, M & R, research spending etc, all of which help drive up markets. Add to this other factors like large changes in health care system, and increased consumer spending, significant increases in robotics and manufacturing effeciencies and you have conditions becoming similar to previous bull run conditions.

Hey, at least this is what my banker tells me, is this all bull? Can someone confirm or refute? Sorry if this is a repeat, i just started reading this thread, would take me till the next crash to catch up!

Maserati wrote:

I see the numbers going quite high

So after predicting a crash, have you now seen the light? Or are you just covering all of the bases so that you can eventually claim that you were right?

R U Guys Cereal?!? wrote:

Randy Oldman wrote:

Dow Jones guru are recommending shorting positions below 17430 with downside targets of 16330 and even 15860

Alternatively, if the market goes about 17430 they suggest the next points of resistance will be 17770 or 18000.

Are you kidding me? Do you guys even listen to yourselves?

"points of resistance"

"downside targets"

Good Dog Almighty!

For the newbies reading this thread for an education, welcome to hot air central!

Take note of FP's mantra - good stuff. Mostly recognize that markets go up, they go down, but they go up more than down. Everything else on this thread - well, let's just say this why it is so easy to make fun of financial advisors.

Don't shoot the messenger.

Blame these guys

Randy Oldman wrote:

R U Guys Cereal?!? wrote:

Are you kidding me? Do you guys even listen to yourselves?

"points of resistance"

"downside targets"

Good Dog Almighty!

For the newbies reading this thread for an education, welcome to hot air central!

Take note of FP's mantra - good stuff. Mostly recognize that markets go up, they go down, but they go up more than down. Everything else on this thread - well, let's just say this why it is so easy to make fun of financial advisors.

Don't shoot the messenger.

Blame these guys

https://www.tradingcentral.com/start.asp?p=video&language=en

Sorry Big Guy. You are certainly one of the best posters here on LRC. It's just scary when I read posts from folks who claim to be newbies who are learning a lot by reading this thread. Like I said, the only things to learn here are:

1) FP's common sense mantra

2) Some guy's "The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat."

3) Lots of dudes with way more time and testosterone than intelligence blow a whole lot of hot air about market happenings. And this is pretty much all you'll hear watching sites like the one that you linked to.

Cheers

agip wrote:

public sector unions are corrosive and fundamentally anti-democratic. they own politicians like no other group.

With all due respect, you're starting to sound like K5.

Big dog investments wrote:

agip wrote:

public sector unions are corrosive and fundamentally anti-democratic. they own politicians like no other group.

With all due respect, you're starting to sound like K5.

ouch - that hurt a little.

Really? You think that was K5ian? seriously?

K5 is a hard left campus radical type who blames an unseen and unprovable conspiracy for all the ills of the world - how is partially blaming public unions for bad government in that camp?

The part about "they own politicians like no other group" really smacks of K5. And saying the unions are "corrosive fundamentally anti-democratic" resembles those proclamations of K5 that are difficult to substantiate.

R U Guys Cereal?!? wrote:

Sorry Big Guy. You are certainly one of the best posters here on LRC. It's just scary when I read posts from folks who claim to be newbies who are learning a lot by reading this thread. Like I said, the only things to learn here are:

1) FP's common sense mantra

2) Some guy's "The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat."

3) Lots of dudes with way more time and testosterone than intelligence blow a whole lot of hot air about market happenings. And this is pretty much all you'll hear watching sites like the one that you linked to.

Cheers

These are the technical indicators used by investment banks, hedge funds and other financial systems in their program trading systems.

These programs will leverage research, analytic and news stories as triggers e.g if 18,000 is considered a point of resistance, a bank's application will be programmed to sell as the millisecond the Dow reaches that trigger.

Similarly, if an economic indicator is different to the banks own forecast it will signal trading activity immediately.

My company collects real-time prices from exchanges, processing about 2 million prices per second and delivers them to clients within 200 ms of the trade.

These systems account for more than 70% of trades on US Stock Exchanges, buying or selling millions of stock within microseconds. Humans will always be well behind the market.

Some banks are now collocating their program systems within exchanges, to remove latency caused networks and third-party processing. This enables them to receive and trade stock in microseconds.

It would take a human seconds to make a decision and trade on buy/sell triggers, so we're always way behind the market.

Big dog investments wrote:

The part about "they own politicians like no other group" really smacks of K5. And saying the unions are "corrosive fundamentally anti-democratic" resembles those proclamations of K5 that are difficult to substantiate.

well maybe the word 'own' is too strong.

if I sub in 'influence' would you withdraw?

because otherwise, man, it's pistols at dawn.

No, the word change wouldn't matter. K5 says it's the Jews, you say it's the unions. Own, influence....what's the diff?

Big dog investments wrote:

No, the word change wouldn't matter. K5 says it's the Jews, you say it's the unions. Own, influence....what's the diff?

well obviously there is a big difference.

but very well

choose your second - I'll see you on the field of honor.

Own like no other group.

Influence like no other group.

Sounds like the same thing to me.

Whatever. I'll see you at dawn. Don't forget to adjust for the loss of daylight savings.

As the Wall Street Journal put it recently, public-sector unions "may be the single biggest problem...for the U.S. economy and small-d democratic governance." They may also be the biggest challenge facing state and local officials — a challenge that, unless economic conditions dramatically improve, will dominate the politics of the decade to come.

http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-trouble-with-public-sector-unions

____________

Our empirical analysis focuses on municipal elections in the 150 largest cities in the U.S. between 1990 and 2012. We find that challengers strongly benefit from [union] endorsements in competitive elections. Challengers that receive union endorsements and successfully defeat an incumbent also tend to adopt more union friendly fiscal policies.

http://blogs.reuters.com/muniland/2013/04/19/public-unions-how-strong-is-their-influence/

______

well I could cite a lot more, but here - have a look for yourself, mostly totally respectable sources.

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=public+union+influence+on+politics

I don't think it is a stretch at all to state that public unions are a giant influence on local and state elections.

but I live in NYC, which has very very strong public unions - if you live in Arizona you might not have the same view of the world.

I agree that unions have a strong influence. So does the Israeli lobby. And lots of other groups. But neither unions nor Jews influence like no other group.

2014 contributions to members of Congress:

Private sector unions (construction, transportation, industrial), $26M

Public sector unions (government), $10.5M

Pro-Israel, $8.4M

By far the biggest is Lawyers and Law Firms who have contributed in excess of $50M.