Imagine down voting this response or trying to argue with SAGE CANADAY. Sage is literally referencing the science. The affects of temperature on marathon runners in various conditions and pacing has been studied ad nauseum - he is not wrong on this one
Ermm the literature is pretty clear that body size does play a large role in thermal balance. And there's tons of evidence about heat adaption, individual variability etc. Do you not think it's weird how there's some triathletes and cyclists that perform really well in heat, and others in the cold? Or do you just think the latter aren't trying heat protocols? The top runners are all similar body shape/sizes so you don't see as much variation variation at the very pointy end of elite running as in other sports.
I like Sage but as the awesome sauce 'the water evaporating changes the carb composition' wtf-ery shows why you might not want to reply on the appeal to authority.
Yes he's right in that people could have started at PB minus 5 minute pace and been fine, but if it's your one marathon for the year and all your training through spring has suggested you're going to be faster than PB pace then you'll probably set off at PB pace or quicker. Only about 10 miles in do you realise that the heat is more of a factor than you'd thought.
Staying on topic here - every YouTuber referenced in this thread that blew up on Sunday ALL set off at faster than PB pace. I don’t disagree with the internal desire to go after what you perceive your fitness to be after a solid training block. But it’s a marathon. It’s unpredictable for every person who has ever run or raced the distance.
You referenced a lot of runners that started with the masses as the elites were finishing, have zero excuse for not cluing in by their 10:45-11:15 start times that the ambient air temperature was at 16-17C and climbing. Check the ego, take the foot off the gas, and let your brain guide the effort.
One YouTuber has a PB of 3:32 from two years ago and she hasn’t come close to that time since - posted her Strava run the week leading up to London that her goal pace was 4:45/km. She wore a heart rate strap for the marathon and hit 171bpm by the 3km split. Naturally the wheels fell off and the pace started tanking after the 10km split.
I really like Ben Felton and somewhat enjoy his YouTube content on occasion. I am not a Ben Is Running critic. He is a 2:24 marathon runner - great time, I’ll never come close to that. He went out just after the elite men’s start(same temps as the elites) gunning for a 2:18 and by the second km his heart rate was at 173bpm(his threshold measured by arm-strap). His pace dropped after 22km and never got it back.
Going back to what Sage said, the temperatures have an effect on performance drop off, anywhere from 3-5% for most people. However, going out much faster than you’ve ever raced the distance before and hitting your threshold effort VERY EARLY in a marathon is likely what caused people’s blowup. Every YouTuber that majorly missed their stated goals “based on their fitness” has made enough excuses in their lengthy recap captions and vlogs. Why are you doing it in here for free?
The “heat” is a poor excuse as there were literally no headwinds to battle this year.
2024 we had 10mph winds west to east (ie a headwind for close to 2/3s of the race).
2023 it chucked it down with rain and was very cold / windy.
London simply doesn’t get perfect conditions but I’d say 2025 was the best of the past few years.
I don't know why my name has been dragged into this thread 😅 but as I'm a pretty analytical guy, I thought I would reply to this point.
I was more worried (actually very worried in the weeks of the buildup) that it would be a westerly wind and that would wreck the race more than anything for trying to run sub 2:25. Was it warm by the end? Of course. Probably the warmest I've actually ran in since maybe September or early October at best. My build up was good and I think I maybe had 2:23 in me but I just dialled it back a tiny bit due to it being slightly warmer than I thought on the day and that probably did the trick.
I'm decent at analysing stuff I think and I'd had taken Sundays weather over 10-15 mph westerly winds which you could also get. I think I was more likely to break 2:25 in Sundays conditions than Westerly wind.
I would also guess that basically the course layout means ideal conditions (cooler and some sort of easterly winds) come around basically once in a blue moon. That's the golden ticket , combined with the ski slope start that you never come back up
The “heat” is a poor excuse as there were literally no headwinds to battle this year.
2024 we had 10mph winds west to east (ie a headwind for close to 2/3s of the race).
2023 it chucked it down with rain and was very cold / windy.
London simply doesn’t get perfect conditions but I’d say 2025 was the best of the past few years.
Okay my final post, as my point was very simple and so we can go back to slating shoetubers (apart from Fod, RTJ and CMR). Heat may not have been a problem for some, it however may have been a major problem for others due to the fact we are all different: individual variability. An 80kg runner is going to have a different experience to a 60kg runner. Likewise women vs men. Heat acclimatised vs a busy working/family life in the UK training at 5am etc. Those going off at PB pace may well have over cooked it and only realised the heat once it's too late. Other may have just had bad races. People saying it was ideal conditions are denying the very real experience of other people who have different physiology/morphology and different heat adaptations to themselves.
Re your 2023-2024 woes, it really depends on how you tolerate heat. Less chance of blowing up massively in cold/windy/wet weather, that just takes a few mins off your time in the pack, when things go wrong in the heat they tend to go really wrong. So yes it may have been better if you tolerated it well and didn't overheat, but also it may have been far worse if heat stress had kicked in and blown up spectacularly.
Staying on topic here - every YouTuber referenced in this thread that blew up on Sunday ALL set off at faster than PB pace. I don’t disagree with the internal desire to go after what you perceive your fitness to be after a solid training block. But it’s a marathon. It’s unpredictable for every person who has ever run or raced the distance.
You referenced a lot of runners that started with the masses as the elites were finishing, have zero excuse for not cluing in by their 10:45-11:15 start times that the ambient air temperature was at 16-17C and climbing. Check the ego, take the foot off the gas, and let your brain guide the effort.
One YouTuber has a PB of 3:32 from two years ago and she hasn’t come close to that time since - posted her Strava run the week leading up to London that her goal pace was 4:45/km. She wore a heart rate strap for the marathon and hit 171bpm by the 3km split. Naturally the wheels fell off and the pace started tanking after the 10km split.
I really like Ben Felton and somewhat enjoy his YouTube content on occasion. I am not a Ben Is Running critic. He is a 2:24 marathon runner - great time, I’ll never come close to that. He went out just after the elite men’s start(same temps as the elites) gunning for a 2:18 and by the second km his heart rate was at 173bpm(his threshold measured by arm-strap). His pace dropped after 22km and never got it back.
Going back to what Sage said, the temperatures have an effect on performance drop off, anywhere from 3-5% for most people. However, going out much faster than you’ve ever raced the distance before and hitting your threshold effort VERY EARLY in a marathon is likely what caused people’s blowup. Every YouTuber that majorly missed their stated goals “based on their fitness” has made enough excuses in their lengthy recap captions and vlogs. Why are you doing it in here for free?
Final final post, promise. I'm not defending the shoetubers per se, more a general comment about conditions and generalisability: I've just seen so many posts saying "X didn't struggle with the heat so it must be fine" or it was "ideal" and I find that frustrating as for many good runners that wasn't the case, and I see it as unfair on them and diminishing their experience/struggles. Being atrocious racing in the heat compared to my partner gives me some extra empathy in this regard. The shoetubers, especially those with access to altitude, heat camps, full time training etc don't really have the excuse for being well adapted, and as I said re Ben and philly just far too ambitious.
"Someone half his size"....?! How much do you think some runners weigh?
While it is true that heat generally impacts (time-wise) more of the midpack and back of the marathoners a lot more than the elites, it's not a like a Youtuber who has a lot of time and resources to train can't do some basic "heat training" to help compensate for possible adversity on a warm day. Wearing extra layers in clothing, training more in the afternoon, taking hot baths and trying to visit a sauna etc. The science on heat training is actually pretty solid and can go a long way fyi.
Sure genetics and surface area (body size) play a role, but it's also about general depth of fitness and getting used to "running hot" and knowing how to adjust hydration on the fly.
How hot was it in London exactly? low 70s? Low humidity? Sure that slows everyone down, but it's not like it was "horrible conditions"....heck a guy ran 2:02!
For a guy around 3:00 who has done some heat training and knows how to pace and hydrate and adjust for the conditions I'd say you're looking at a 3:05-3:07 (5 to 7-minute slow down) ideally compared to cool and dry conditions. A lot of people don't do this correctly though and they end up trying to force a low 3-hour pace and blow up and run 3:15-3:20 instead with a massive slow down in the second half....getting dehydrated and having heatstroke.
For a 2:20 runner, yeah sure maybe it's only a "slow down" of about 2-4 minutes on average compared to if it was 40 or 45 degrees F. Generally the people running 2:20 vs 3:00 are trained a lot more and have lower BMIs also though. It's not rocket science here.
High humidity (its the UK, an island nation, that's why 70F+ is always feels pretty hot here). It's also solar radiation of full sun.It's been cold all year bar the week before.
Unless you guessed it would be hot, heat acclimatisation would have been pretty low (yes elites have time to do this but average 2:30+ marathoner here I doubt would have). Once you know its hot (10 day forecast out) there's not huge amount you can do (maybe a couple of sessions straight away).
Also it got roasting from 11am, male elites had nearly finished. Us hobby joggers had to run the second half of a marathon in it.
FWIW: It doesn't make anyones light shine any brighter, distinguishing someone else's.
I have no idea what you mean by writing: "It doesn't make anyones light shine any brighter, distinguishing someone else's" is supposed to mean or reference?
I merely stated some observations with projected time adjustments and science in my post. This was not meant to be an insult or slight. What was the humidity exactly...give me a number?
You think I don't know what it's like to train/run in a very cold and dry environment and then have to run somewhere where it's all of a sudden hot and humid? Is the "solar radiation of the full sun" [your reference] really any worse in the UK...compared to say, most parts of the US on a clear day? Try doing 5 winters in upstate New York, 3 winters in Michigan and training in the winter in the mountains of Colorado for a "hot spring race"....or something like Honolulu (90%+ humidity, over 80 degrees, sunny).
My point was that while conditions were obviously far from optimal, it's not like they were "crazy bad and slow" when objectively looking at the weather data and knowing how to train/run heat acclimate (as well as adjust hydration). That's all I'm saying. Take it or leave it.
High humidity (its the UK, an island nation, that's why 70F+ is always feels pretty hot here). It's also solar radiation of full sun.It's been cold all year bar the week before.
Unless you guessed it would be hot, heat acclimatisation would have been pretty low (yes elites have time to do this but average 2:30+ marathoner here I doubt would have). Once you know its hot (10 day forecast out) there's not huge amount you can do (maybe a couple of sessions straight away).
Also it got roasting from 11am, male elites had nearly finished. Us hobby joggers had to run the second half of a marathon in it.
FWIW: It doesn't make anyones light shine any brighter, distinguishing someone else's.
I have no idea what you mean by writing: "It doesn't make anyones light shine any brighter, distinguishing someone else's" is supposed to mean or reference?
I merely stated some observations with projected time adjustments and science in my post. This was not meant to be an insult or slight. What was the humidity exactly...give me a number?
You think I don't know what it's like to train/run in a very cold and dry environment and then have to run somewhere where it's all of a sudden hot and humid? Is the "solar radiation of the full sun" [your reference] really any worse in the UK...compared to say, most parts of the US on a clear day? Try doing 5 winters in upstate New York, 3 winters in Michigan and training in the winter in the mountains of Colorado for a "hot spring race"....or something like Honolulu (90%+ humidity, over 80 degrees, sunny).
My point was that while conditions were obviously far from optimal, it's not like they were "crazy bad and slow" when objectively looking at the weather data and knowing how to train/run heat acclimate (as well as adjust hydration). That's all I'm saying. Take it or leave it.
It basically means that focusing on making someone else appear less successful does not automatically make you appear more successful. True brilliance comes from within, not from belittling others.
You're elite Sage, well done too you. The fact you've pulled off some incredible results (in normal conditions and in heat like Honolulu) doesn't mean its same for everyone else.
I'll agree it wasn't worse conditions ever. In some ultras in afternoon sun, its been way worse but as road marathons that start at 9:00/9:35 go in UK in April it was tough.
I love bashing a YTber for shilling, having no eithics, "coaching" 100+ athletes but I think Sunday is a day I let them have the excuse.
The Bib muling influencer (and coach!) , who started in championship area, having not earned it (and also creates an issue with that club competition), bragging about his PB online, and obviously knew it was wrong by trying to hide his BIB (#2026), I'll happily call out.
This post was edited 17 minutes after it was posted.
I have no idea what you mean by writing: "It doesn't make anyones light shine any brighter, distinguishing someone else's" is supposed to mean or reference?
I think he meant 'extinguishing' but said 'distinguishing'.
It's idiotic to think that everybody will be impacted by heat/sun equally. A tiny bloke like sirpoc is going to have far less heat buildup than someone like the FOD runner.
Because one person performed well in the heat doesn't negate that other taller or more muscular people might struggle with heat buildup, even in cooler weather than Sunday. It's basics physics and biology (larger runners produce more heat and have a lower surface area to volume ratio to disperse heat).
I wasn't racing but it drives me mad seeing this twaddle that because one bloke found it fine then it invalidates other people's experiences despite them having completely different body sizes/muscularity. It's not difficult to understand that people will have different susceptibility to heat/sun.
FOD (sorry to drag you into this but you're an example people will recognise) could have a sauna and hot bath every day for a year and would still be more susceptible to heat than someone half his size.
"Someone half his size"....?! How much do you think some runners weigh?
While it is true that heat generally impacts (time-wise) more of the midpack and back of the marathoners a lot more than the elites, it's not a like a Youtuber who has a lot of time and resources to train can't do some basic "heat training" to help compensate for possible adversity on a warm day. Wearing extra layers in clothing, training more in the afternoon, taking hot baths and trying to visit a sauna etc. The science on heat training is actually pretty solid and can go a long way fyi.
Sure genetics and surface area (body size) play a role, but it's also about general depth of fitness and getting used to "running hot" and knowing how to adjust hydration on the fly.
How hot was it in London exactly? low 70s? Low humidity? Sure that slows everyone down, but it's not like it was "horrible conditions"....heck a guy ran 2:02!
For a guy around 3:00 who has done some heat training and knows how to pace and hydrate and adjust for the conditions I'd say you're looking at a 3:05-3:07 (5 to 7-minute slow down) ideally compared to cool and dry conditions. A lot of people don't do this correctly though and they end up trying to force a low 3-hour pace and blow up and run 3:15-3:20 instead with a massive slow down in the second half....getting dehydrated and having heatstroke.
For a 2:20 runner, yeah sure maybe it's only a "slow down" of about 2-4 minutes on average compared to if it was 40 or 45 degrees F. Generally the people running 2:20 vs 3:00 are trained a lot more and have lower BMIs also though. It's not rocket science here.
Sage, you always come off as so unlikeable every time you comment here. For someone who can barely run anymore, maybe just sit down at the back and keep quiet?
Ben Felton = 2:24:5× at Valencia so 2:25 marathoner really which equates to a 2:26:30 at London as any clues up runner will appreciate. Was it that lactate testing that was way off and gave him an overblown sense of confidence? Or perhaps poor advice from his coach?
Either way, not a good advert for all the kit, shoe, supplement, travel and coaching sponsors.
The OG GOAT is calling out an older youtube influencer about some officious advice that Seth didn't want or need regarding weight vest training!
Finally back to talking about S.J.D. and not all these British folks I don’t know.
aLso, what are you speaking about?
According to the OG GOAT, he was doing a lot of weight vest training a few years ago, and also running his best times post collegiately. Allegedly, an "older" YouTuber whom the OG respected advised him that weight vest training could ruin his knees. The OG cut back/cut out weight vest training, and obviously, that's what's lead to subpar results. The OG only knows one runner whose doctor advised them that running ruined their knees. Only one, and the OG knows A LOT of runners. As of know the OG's knees are totally fine. Seems like the OG is going to add the weight vest back into his training.
I don't know why my name has been dragged into this thread 😅 but as I'm a pretty analytical guy, I thought I would reply to this point.
I was more worried (actually very worried in the weeks of the buildup) that it would be a westerly wind and that would wreck the race more than anything for trying to run sub 2:25. Was it warm by the end? Of course. Probably the warmest I've actually ran in since maybe September or early October at best. My build up was good and I think I maybe had 2:23 in me but I just dialled it back a tiny bit due to it being slightly warmer than I thought on the day and that probably did the trick.
I'm decent at analysing stuff I think and I'd had taken Sundays weather over 10-15 mph westerly winds which you could also get. I think I was more likely to break 2:25 in Sundays conditions than Westerly wind.
I would also guess that basically the course layout means ideal conditions (cooler and some sort of easterly winds) come around basically once in a blue moon. That's the golden ticket , combined with the ski slope start that you never come back up
I'll take this coming from this dude. I pretty much paced like a fool and can sit and blame the heat I guess but like a lot of others, in retrospect the fitness versus goal wasn't there. Ironically I was going to jump on your training but I will hold my hands up and say , I thought you were in trouble with the lack of marathon specific training. So, shame on me.
By the way, saw you in Bester's video. The cadence is wild. I'm here for it. You couldn't really make it up at this point. 41 year old first time marathoner shuffles his way to beating the YouTubers on 7 hours a week with unconventional ideas.
If we look up the weather reports in 2024 at London City Airport - these are the observations regarding wind speed and direction.
(These are in Zulu times, so local time was 1 hour ahead)
7:50Z: VRB09KT - 8:20Z: 35009KT -
8:50Z: 35009KT - 9:20Z: 02010KT
9:50Z: 36008KT
10:20Z: 36008KT - 10:50Z: 35009KT
11:20Z: 36007KT - 11:50Z: 04009KT
12:20Z: 04008KT - 12:50Z: 02008KT
13:20Z: 04010KT - 13:50Z: 36010KT
14:20Z: 36010KT - 14:50Z: VRB07KT
So pretty much direct northerly most of the time and veering to NNE'ly around lunchtime. Definitely some local funnelling effects around tall buildings causing some irritating headwinds at points I'm sure, but a headwind for 2/3s of 2024, it was not.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
I am the self procalimed sh*ttest youtube marathon runner on the platform... when i've run my marathons I usually weight around 92kg... I am probably carrying alot more timber than most people around me and i'm an extremely salty sweater... so I am not the best person to use as an example haha
The only time I got a marathon right was when I fuelled semi decently and got to 23 miles without really fading... otherwise... i'd stack up 60kg runners against 60kg runners... I am a monstrosity compared to them
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