Down goes the Dow

Randy Oldman wrote:

The only person it's worth taking any investment advice from is Klondike 5

You mean if you don't want to make money in the market?

You can NEVER know when the market will crash (or just go down a lot). And when it does, you can never know when it will go back up a ton again. Staying out of the market for any length of time hoping to get back in at another time is a fool's errand. If you are not within about 5 years of retirement, you should be in the market, then, if within 5 years of retirement, getting out just depends on how much you have and if you've met your retirement goals.

Looking for a big easy score is just greed, and greed is often met with failure.

You should invest today what you do not need today so that you can have money in the future for retirement.

The best way to do that (good returns and low risk) is:

1) Have emergency fund of 3-6 months of expenses (or 8 in my case).

2) Have zero debt other than reasonable mortgage that is not more than ~25% of your take home pay. If this isn't your situation, then get that way as soon as possible.

3) Invest 15% or more of your income into mutual fund within retirement accounts. You CAN just buy an index fund, or you can spread it out this way...growth, growth and income, aggressive growth, and international.

4) When you retire, you should plan to own your home outright and have zero debt.

That's it.

Want to try to make MORE, then once you are 100% debt free (including your home), and if you are still doing 15% into retirement accounts while working, then it's time to buy some individual stocks. Never more than ~20% into any one sector of the market which means you need at least 5 stocks. Whatever you feel comfortable doing beyond the 15% into the mutual funds is fine...just know that you COULD lose most of this money if things go bad (easier to do with just so few stocks). This is why you continue to fund the mutual funds.

I was being sarcastic.

Isn't it more convenient to go to WalMart?

Flagpole wrote:

The best way to do that (good returns and low risk) is:

1) Have emergency fund of 3-6 months of expenses (or 8 in my case).

2) Have zero debt other than reasonable mortgage that is not more than ~25% of your take home pay. If this isn't your situation, then get that way as soon as possible.

3) Invest 15% or more of your income into mutual fund within retirement accounts. You CAN just buy an index fund, or you can spread it out this way...growth, growth and income, aggressive growth, and international.

4) When you retire, you should plan to own your home outright and have zero debt.

That's it.

You should post this more often.

The Internet's most clueless person.

Wake up, big fella.

agip wrote:

off to the MF races!

Halloween drops a nice treat into the bags of equity bulls, courtesy BOJ. ( Maybe I'll wear a Shinzō Abe mask to my Halloween parties this weekend )

For Goldbugs it's a trick.

DJIA up near 200 in early trading, of course Japanese QE has a lot to do with it.

Spend! Spend! Spend!

Japan is screwed, I can only think that this measure was designed to produce short-term gains for those who would run up the numbers, cash out, and invest in US instruments.

Regarding the union thing, I want to make clear that I have no problem whatsoever with private-sector unions collectively bargaining on behalf of those individuals who voluntarily belong to the union, with employers. Absolutely no problem, in the private sector (I am opposed to mandatory contribution, which is now successfully being challenged in many jurisdictions).

However, I am completely against public sector unions, like the AFL-CIO representing postal workers. Yes, I consider the USPO a governmental entity. The beginning of the end for US government were Kennedy's Presidential Order 10988, followed by Nixon's 11491.

Work for a governmental unit should be seen as SERVICE, not EMPLOYMENT, somewhat as it is done in the military. Any strike, job action, or refusal to work should be treated as dereliction of duty, or in the worst cases desertion. The working conditions and the levels of remuneration for service provided should be set by market rate, where there is a comparable private-sector analog. Where there is not, the rates and conditions should be set relative to those that do have analogs.

If I were elected president tomorrow, the FIRST thing I would do would be to issue a Presidential Order rescinding 11491.

Again, no problem with private-sector unions that do not have coerced membership.

DJIA up 160 now, woo-hoo!

Sounds a lot like slavery to me.

Maserati wrote:

DJIA up near 200 in early trading, of course Japanese QE has a lot to do with it.

Spend! Spend! Spend!

Japan is screwed, I can only think that this measure was designed to produce short-term gains for those who would run up the numbers, cash out, and invest in US instruments.

Regarding the union thing, I want to make clear that I have no problem whatsoever with private-sector unions collectively bargaining on behalf of those individuals who voluntarily belong to the union, with employers. Absolutely no problem, in the private sector (I am opposed to mandatory contribution, which is now successfully being challenged in many jurisdictions).

+1

public sector unions are corrosive and fundamentally anti-democratic. they own politicians like no other group. Then we all have to pay the absurd pension and other contracts, killing schools and other needs.

It's got to end.

but I cheer on private unions, for the most part.

Recognizer of Hilarity wrote:

The Internet's most clueless person.

Wake up, big fella.

A hit and run accusation with no meat behind it. Put up a better idea or you have zero credibility. You people who criticize the tried and true have no real idea how decades of this kind of investing can turn a pittance into millions. It's a shame too, because all it takes is a calculator or a spreadsheet. I made so little money between age 23 and age 30 that it would have been EASY to just spend it all and have nothing to show for it. But, investing what I could, that money then is now worth a truck load, and I've just stepped up (not percentagewise but dollar amountwise) how much we invest.

Those of you who DO jump in and out of the market worry about it. You worry if you did the right thing getting out and then worry if you got back in at the right time. It's all silly.

Invest what you don't need today so that you will have money for retirement. Keep investing even in bad times, and don't stop at all until ~5 years from retirement. Then, if you think you have enough, you can drastically change your portfolio IF YOU WANT TO...maybe do a ton of bonds or heavily into dividend-giving stocks, or maybe you do what I plan to do and that is to keep things mostly still aggressive but have 3 YEARS of expenses saved liquid so that you can ride out a horrible stock market downturn if you need to.

Easy, simple, effective, and it is virtually worry-free to invest with the principles I espouse.

Randy Oldman wrote:

I was being sarcastic.

Ah...then if you were at all offended by my comment, I apologize unreservedly.

Doubled up on the cluelessness, huh big fella?

Amazing. I'd be willing to bet that every single person reading this thread EXCEPT FOR YOU realizes why I called you clueless.

Well, now I call you priceless.

Recognizer of Hilarity wrote:

Amazing. I'd be willing to bet that every single person reading this thread EXCEPT FOR YOU realizes why I called you clueless.

nope, I have no idea. FP has been dead right for years on just about everything.

US stocks are 0.5% from all time highs

global stocks are still 2.9% from all time highs

this was an astonishing rally.

for fun, here is the famous Gartman, on October 14:

"When you start breaking trend lines, when you start closing below 200-day moving averages, when you start closing below 50-week moving averages, when markets open higher (and) close on their lows, when the VIX goes up as it has, when the derivatives markets are showing you that the markets want to go lower, being less long, being less exposed is probably the better place to be," he said.

Gartman said he was largely out of the stock market, with "north of 80 percent in cash and short-term bond funds."

madonna mia.

Actually, you do know. And it has nothing to do with what you posted. Of course, you will pretend to not know as you always rush to flaggy's defense.

But Randy Oldman and Scratched Vinyl have already pointed it out in their own ways.

But hey, major marks for your undying loyalty to flaggy.

Question for FP wrote:

I see the 401(k) contribution limits are being increased in 2015 to 18K with a 6K catch up. However, if you also contribute to a Roth IRA the sum of the contributions for the two can't exceed the above limit.

Is this new?

bumping since the master has returned.

Was this combined limit in effect in previous years, or is it new for 2015?

Question for FP wrote:

Question for FP wrote:

I see the 401(k) contribution limits are being increased in 2015 to 18K with a 6K catch up. However, if you also contribute to a Roth IRA the sum of the contributions for the two can't exceed the above limit.

Is this new?

bumping since the master has returned.

Was this combined limit in effect in previous years, or is it new for 2015?

I was not aware of that rule for 2015, and if it is indeed true, then it is new. A quick Google search could not find anything to support or denounce this claim.

Anyone have a link?

This has been a good rally. I could have made twice the money I did had I waited until today to sell! It's all good, though.

No predictions about how high the DJIA will go this year, or at what level the next effective plateau will be?

I was serious about the numbers I posted. The Japanese QE helps, but I was only maybe 60% certain they would do it, and I didn't know when, only that it would contribute a bit to the numbers I posted.

It's just one of the factors, but has essentially been responsible for the feel-good gain this Friday, which caps a great rally (after a good dip). More than anything, I think that it has created a sense of momentum--ridiculous, yes, because it is government spending--but positive momentum nonetheless, like investors are now more convinced than ever that governments will unfailingly support the markets. Japan has a history with QE. One has to wonder how it will affect currencies, but all these various moves seem to be driving up the USD index. Of course the Yen moved lower, and the USD seems to be near highs for the year.

Anybody who's anybody has USD accounts, but converting to USD to buy US equities has gotten more expensive, making US equities (which are bought by investors worldwide) even more expensive to others, than to us native Americans.

Look at crappy Canada, their dollar keeps going down vs the USD because they sell everything to us, and are dependent on oil and other resource extraction. At least they're not lying, they report their economy to be shrinking--but buying things in USD has gotten much more expensive for them in the past 12 months.

Some people, including myself, dislike the use of QE in the quantities in which it has been used by the US, and also Japan--but whatever. Stuff like QE in a way forces guys like me to evaluate cash held in different currencies, which is a drag, and continues the pressure to purchase investment products rather than being in cash (as an alternative to investing in other things).

I see the numbers going quite high--and I think it won't mean much if you are in, but it will mean a whole heck of a lot if you are out (out of both USD and US instruments).

DJIA up 162 with a couple of hours left...

Some people know how to play QE, and some don't.