Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

tips are up almost 3% today.

maybe that is the market thinking we'll have to inflate our way out of this debt?

That’s herd mentality. I received two separate tips recos yesterday after hours.

That is the theory, a bout of deflation followed by a large inflation. Hence my interest in gold, although gold is a funny animal. I wish it was more clear-cut.

Other commodities (wheat??) might be better.

Uncle B wrote:

S+P 500 down 1%.

Nope.

Bullionvault is an English company, with vault agreements with 3 companies in a few different countries, and banking agreements in England. It’s a little diffuse for my liking and still loaded with counterparty risk, but it is an alternative to gold etf’s. It is not securities regulated, as all it does is provide agency services and not securities. By contractual agreement you own physical gold in a vault of your choice, part of a large bar in a vault area segregated for Bullionvault bullion. And you can redeem physical gold upon demand. Allegedly.

For a fee, of course.

S&P down almost 2%. UK, one of the last holdouts in Europe, closes all bars & restaurants (minus carryout) after close of business.

Food for thought...

My friend tried to get tested yesterday, but the big name clinic ran out of tests at 1:30PM. Today, she got there before the open and there was already a line outside the door, but she got tested at 8:30AM. Turn around for results is 2-3 days. Just based on the huge increase in testing in the past couple of days, the number of confirmed cases will most likely jump a LOT over the weekend.

That might panic the market on Monday for a big open on the downside. I'm not buying anything today.

Fortunately for my friend, she was very sick overnight, but is already significantly better.

fisky wrote:

Food for thought...

My friend tried to get tested yesterday, but the big name clinic ran out of tests at 1:30PM. Today, she got there before the open and there was already a line outside the door, but she got tested at 8:30AM. Turn around for results is 2-3 days. Just based on the huge increase in testing in the past couple of days, the number of confirmed cases will most likely jump a LOT over the weekend.

That might panic the market on Monday for a big open on the downside. I'm not buying anything today.

Fortunately for my friend, she was very sick overnight, but is already significantly better.

That IS good food for thought. Confirmed cases likely are going to jump over the weekend, which *probably* will spook the market.

There is also the ever-present possibility that doctors/scientists will figure out an effective treatment for this any time (already been some promising results from a flu drug out of Japan), which would probably greatly ease the world's anxiety, though it would take time since there's no way to magically produce and distribute a billion pills all over the world overnight.

fisky wrote:

the number of confirmed cases will most likely jump a LOT over the weekend.

And DOWN will go the "death rate" based on reported stats. But people don't want to hear about that. They want bad news. Their attitude is ridiculous.

After nearly 20,000 positives, Germany's "death rate" of .269% is the highest it's been since very early. The truth about this "deadly" plague has been obvious for several weeks now, and even the risk of overloading hospitals has proven to be an uncommon and localized outcome. The vast majority of the world has aced this test already.

Markets taking another dump, the trend is down. So much for the relief rally.

I think we might get a manipulated bump into close, they are far below 20k/2400 levels, bit bot far enough yet to grind down further.

bad day in equities but good to see bonds and gold reassert themselves as safe havens.

“but not”

Fact checker wrote:

Uncle B wrote:

S+P 500 down 1%.

Nope.

Not now.

Now it's down 4.50%

Dow hovering above 19k

i was expecting a bump up due to short positions closing out their positions at the end of the trading day and week. But didn't happen. Sold a position i bought earlier in the day for a bigger loss than i would have liked.

Going for a walk now with the wife. Beautiful weather here in the PNW.

Have a good one, all.

fisky wrote:

Food for thought...

My friend tried to get tested yesterday, but the big name clinic ran out of tests at 1:30PM. Today, she got there before the open and there was already a line outside the door, but she got tested at 8:30AM. Turn around for results is 2-3 days. Just based on the huge increase in testing in the past couple of days, the number of confirmed cases will most likely jump a LOT over the weekend.

That might panic the market on Monday for a big open on the downside. I'm not buying anything today.

Fortunately for my friend, she was very sick overnight, but is already significantly better.

Two thoughts:

Standing in line with a bunch of people who think they might have COVID-19 is a sure fire way to get the virus.

We’ve been warned for the past few days by the gubmint that the number of confirmed cases would spike due to the increased availability of testing. This should not be a surprise and hopefully the markets have already priced that in.

Dr. Know wrote:

Two thoughts:

Standing in line with a bunch of people who think they might have COVID-19 is a sure fire way to get the virus.

We’ve been warned for the past few days by the gubmint that the number of confirmed cases would spike due to the increased availability of testing. This should not be a surprise and hopefully the markets have already priced that in.

Was going to say the same thing. Don't stand in line with sick people! Do the drive by testing!!! Numbers of course will go up.

Market absorbing a lot of bad news. Barely moved on in NY news today. Also limit down futures didn't follow thru on Thursday.

Stop reading zerohdge, which only reports the worst case. Italy lockdown could be successful and market rebounds off that? It hasn't been long enough to see yet. At this point, there's risk being short too. The easy money on the downside has been made. Way too much pessimism.

They were taking precations. Four people in the waiting room, one in each corner and everyone else was told to wait outside at 6 foot intervals.

This wasn't a "oooh, I have a cough." This person was a crewmember on a European flight to a known hot spot this past weekend before flights were canceled. My friend was immediately isolated from the other people waiting in line AND given a mask. Several other crewmembers are also now sick so the incubation period appears to be 4-5 days. I'm on day four after training with my friend so I'm self-isolating.