seattle prattle wrote:
up goes the dow wrote:
When I started investing, they told me never to buy odd lots. Imagine buying a full lot of Amazon? Now it's the norm to buy a share here or there... I'll never do fractionals.
I don't see the harm in buying odd lots when NAV exceeds $100 or so.
Agree. Especially with the new commission free trading. I remember paying like $50 per trade sometimes in the 80s.
Maserati wrote:
FYI a friend is currently trying to withdraw “a sizeable amount” of cash from US Bank, and has not yet been able do it. They will not even let him order at this point. He says they are dragging their feet—and he is a good client of theirs, also for his RE empire.
How long has been trying to get it? You can't just walk up to a teller and withdraw a few million (or idk, can you?). Seems plausible it would take a few days. Huge panic in the market, so it takes a few extra days than usual? That doesn't really sound suspect to me unless he's withdrawing from a Ponzi fund
old math professor wrote:
The logistic growth curve starts with the assumption that the spread of disease is proportional to the product of those with it and those without it. For instance, if P=100 and 1 has it then 99 don't There are 99 possible ways for a new person to get infected. If 50 have it and 50 don't, then there are 50x50=2500 ways for a new infection to happen. So, the disease is going to spread faster when half have it than when 1 has it. Of course there is a constant of proportionality that is assumed constant, and if we know two data points we can find that constant of proportionality and project forward.
The problem is, social distancing changes that proportionality constant. Migration in and out of a population also changes things.
The best way pro proceed is to set up a discrete computer model with adjustable parameters. That is what my buddy at Merck did. Mid April is the best-case-scenario peak.
"Bestest case scenario" is that existing cheap drugs and anti-virals are found to cure it by the weekend. The Fed will probably move forward with QE anyways just to be sure and we'll still get a stimulus to help the damage that's been done. In that event, I believe Monday would probably be at least +15% across all indexes.
It's also pretty unlikely, but, ya know....
Indexes holding those 20k and 2400 levels. Considering yesterday, it will. Eed to hold these levels longer for me to have any degree of confidence.
Seattle you can walk up to a counter and request $5k immediately from most banks, anything more and you have to order it and it will take a few days.
Sorry, Racket
Thanks, Mas. I just am trying to get a sense of where to park the cash in brokerage account. Not worried about a run on the banks. I just am not the type to worry about that stuff.
Racket wrote:
old math professor wrote:
The logistic growth curve starts with the assumption that the spread of disease is proportional to the product of those with it and those without it. For instance, if P=100 and 1 has it then 99 don't There are 99 possible ways for a new person to get infected. If 50 have it and 50 don't, then there are 50x50=2500 ways for a new infection to happen. So, the disease is going to spread faster when half have it than when 1 has it. Of course there is a constant of proportionality that is assumed constant, and if we know two data points we can find that constant of proportionality and project forward.
The problem is, social distancing changes that proportionality constant. Migration in and out of a population also changes things.
The best way pro proceed is to set up a discrete computer model with adjustable parameters. That is what my buddy at Merck did. Mid April is the best-case-scenario peak.
"Bestest case scenario" is that existing cheap drugs and anti-virals are found to cure it by the weekend. The Fed will probably move forward with QE anyways just to be sure and we'll still get a stimulus to help the damage that's been done. In that event, I believe Monday would probably be at least +15% across all indexes.
It's also pretty unlikely, but, ya know....
True.
We could probably speed up getting through this by unflattening the curve, but that would lead to more cases and more stress on an already stressed healthcare system. So, social distancing lengthens the economic pain, whereas not social distancing would heighten it.
My two hopes for the day are coming true. So far.
A stock market move of less than 5% and the big bond ETFs are finding their way back to NAV.
Still serious problems in investment grade corporate debt and munis, but in the big ETFs price discovery is happening. Specifically BND and SCHZ.
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
Personally, I make sure all my clients, and include myself, are in only FDIC Insured bank deposit money markets. Fed is intervening to back stop commercial paper used in money market operations in order to try to prevent them from “breaking the buck.” During the Financial Crisis Lehman Brothers paper trading at zero value caused several money markets fall below $1.00 Net Asset Value (NAV).
Igy
Thanks, Igy. I wonder if the Federated PRIME CASH OBLIGATIONS FUND were to slip, if it would go below even more than a fraction of a percent. I don't mind that, i am just trying to avoid losing something substantial in the unlikely event that something like that happened.
Over the last year, it has returned about 2% and seems to consistently do so.
Trump speaking now, who knows how the market will react to that...
Brokerages have cash sweep agreements with FDIC correspondent banks up to certain limits depending on the brokerage eg IBKR to $2.5M, Wells to $1M, etc. The interest gained is very small, but large cash balances can be insured. They are broken into units of 250k for FDIC insurance purposes.
NASDAQ up 4% trying to be the sole index to make it 9 days in a row of 4%+ movement. Go baby go!
Maserati wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Thanks, Igy. I wonder if the Federated PRIME CASH OBLIGATIONS FUND were to slip, if it would go below even more than a fraction of a percent. I don't mind that, i am just trying to avoid losing something substantial in the unlikely event that something like that happened.
Over the last year, it has returned about 2% and seems to consistently do so.
Trump speaking now, who knows how the market will react to that...
Brokerages have cash sweep agreements with FDIC correspondent banks up to certain limits depending on the brokerage eg IBKR to $2.5M, Wells to $1M, etc. The interest gained is very small, but large cash balances can be insured. They are broken into units of 250k for FDIC insurance purposes.
Yeah, i had a couple of the accounts set up as the cash sweep into the money market that paid 2%, but i don't think it was federally insured. I just went online and switched those two to regular FDIC insured "savings account" administered by the brokerage. No big deal, but this is a very unusual time we find ourselves in and if there was ever a time to not risk a couple of percent for the added security, this would be it.
Thx.
agip wrote:
My two hopes for the day are coming true. So far.
A stock market move of less than 5% and the big bond ETFs are finding their way back to NAV.
Still serious problems in investment grade corporate debt and munis, but in the big ETFs price discovery is happening. Specifically BND and SCHZ.
bad ending to the day. the biggest investment quality bond fund, LQD, continued to tank, down 5%, and the big general bond ETF, BND, is still trading well below its NAV. That is a very bad fact. it means there is not good underlying liquidity in bonds. The ETF arbs can't find the bonds they need to arb to the ETF. We are still in financial crisis and it is not easing.
But good to see a quietish day in stocks
Racket wrote:
NASDAQ up 4% trying to be the sole index to make it 9 days in a row of 4%+ movement. Go baby go!
I traded QQQ today to good outcomes, cashing out l o n g term positions.
It just turned negative after hours.
seattle prattle wrote:]I traded QQQ today to good outcomes, cashing out l o n g term positions.
It just turned negative after hours.
I had buy and sell orders on QQQ, neither of which went through given the lower volatility today.
the shill wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:]I traded QQQ today to good outcomes, cashing out l o n g term positions.
It just turned negative after hours.
I had buy and sell orders on QQQ, neither of which went through given the lower volatility today.
You might try TQQQ (3x long leveraged) and SQQQ (3x short leveraged).
I did but my timing was off today.
I bought a couple thousand dollars worth of United Airlines stock today at just a bit under 22.00/share. It was up around 90/share before all this CV stuff happened. Assuming it gets back to that within five years I'll quadruple my money. Could fall further, potentially even down to previous all time lows of under 4.00/share, but I'm okay with that. It will come up. The airline whales might end up getting stronger through all this as some of their small competitors go under.
I am in the healthcare field, so much of what I've read here is gibberish, but intriguing. I am going to throw my 1 only prediction in here: The market has settled and will start going up from here. Hey, why not some optimism. Best of wishes to you all and your families during these trying times
TMADDOX wrote:
I am in the healthcare field, so much of what I've read here is gibberish, but intriguing.
?
Check out the reports of Sen. Burr of the Intelligence Committee warning of dire news to a private group before the crash and selling out himself.
Wish he’d said how far it was going to crash.
Anybody cash in on the relief rally today?