Racket wrote:Here's some questions for your coworker :
Why a logistic growth model? Why not a gamma model? What are the coefficients of the sigmoid curve? Or is it a Gompertz curve? How did he/she derive the coefficients? What are the assumptions?
I will ask my colleague some of those questions when we meet later in the day. I'm not a big fan of curve fitting as the basis of projections from these data, at least not for ultimate projections or for anything beyond a couple of days.
Racket wrote:... even if it were possible to collect the information. The problem is as much a political and economic one as it is a medical one.
i'm inclined to agree with you. This is a complex phenomenon with many non-linear influences, perhaps chiefly social norms and socio-political-administrative response. The plot I shared shows some similar curves, but I have not included many curves that do not look similar. Taiwan, for example, has an extremely flat trajectory.
Spain’s deaths are increasing rapidly.
ok stocks are up and treasury ETFs are up.
So far so good.
I've made $10/share on Lululemon already. Mrs. Agip gets a new pair of tights.
agip wrote:
ok stocks are up and treasury ETFs are up.
So far so good.
I like how VIX is steadily increasing still lol
The problem with any of these growth models - logistic or otherwise - is that the parameters are all determined by how we will behave, and that will remain an unknown for some time. So, all these models are at best educated guesses. I believe a mid-April peak is a best-case scenario.
My guess at what is happening now:
Bargain hunters are coming in. People with dry powder.
But
they are being overwhelmed by forced selling by hedge funds that are blowing up. Margin calls, etc.
old math professor wrote:... all these models are at best educated guesses. I believe a mid-April peak is a best-case scenario.
+1
Climbing back up. Corona fatigue. Too many shorts. Problem being dealt with. Shorts a bit nervous no doubt.
agip wrote:
My guess at what is happening now:
Bargain hunters are coming in. People with dry powder.
But
they are being overwhelmed by forced selling by hedge funds that are blowing up. Margin calls, etc.
Maybe they were done selling yesterday?
Look at UBER and TSLA today. Shorts must be covering because of the buying pressure? Nervous gamblers holding high IV options.
Plus the market will bottom before the corona crisis peaks.
Maserati wrote:
That is my sense.
Looking at AAPL, MSFT, they are only down to late October 2019 levels. Those types of megacaps seem to be holding up well, people seem to be clinging to them. Maybe not a bad strategy for long-termers
that has been exactly my strategy. Add Amazon and Google to that list. Will probably be adding more AMazon for what that is worth.
The logistic growth curve starts with the assumption that the spread of disease is proportional to the product of those with it and those without it. For instance, if P=100 and 1 has it then 99 don't There are 99 possible ways for a new person to get infected. If 50 have it and 50 don't, then there are 50x50=2500 ways for a new infection to happen. So, the disease is going to spread faster when half have it than when 1 has it. Of course there is a constant of proportionality that is assumed constant, and if we know two data points we can find that constant of proportionality and project forward.
The problem is, social distancing changes that proportionality constant. Migration in and out of a population also changes things.
The best way pro proceed is to set up a discrete computer model with adjustable parameters. That is what my buddy at Merck did. Mid April is the best-case-scenario peak.
FYI a friend is currently trying to withdraw “a sizeable amount” of cash from US Bank, and has not yet been able do it. They will not even let him order at this point. He says they are dragging their feet—and he is a good client of theirs, also for his RE empire.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Hey, would you guys be worried about having cash in the Federated PRIME CASH OBLIGATIONS FUND at this time? I've been using a daily sweep into it for a couple of my brokerage accounts for about a year now, and it pulls down maybe about 2% in interest a year. I know we talked about it before, but i'd be lying if i said these last couple of weeks haven't made me just a wee bit nervous. Thanks for your thoughts on this. Wondering if this isn't the wrong time to be in something like that.
Seattle,
Personally, I make sure all my clients, and include myself, are in only FDIC Insured bank deposit money markets. Fed is intervening to back stop commercial paper used in money market operations in order to try to prevent them from “breaking the buck.” During the Financial Crisis Lehman Brothers paper trading at zero value caused several money markets fall below $1.00 Net Asset Value (NAV).
Igy
Thanks, Igy. I wonder if the Federated PRIME CASH OBLIGATIONS FUND were to slip, if it would go below even more than a fraction of a percent. I don't mind that, i am just trying to avoid losing something substantial in the unlikely event that something like that happened.
Over the last year, it has returned about 2% and seems to consistently do so.
Trump speaking now, who knows how the market will react to that...
Thanks for that, Mas. That's the kind of thing i was wondering about.
What are all the implications of a significantly larger Fed balance sheet, seeing as how 2008 has put The Fed in a position to preemptively prevent large scale runs?
seattle prattle wrote:
that has been exactly my strategy. Add Amazon and Google to that list. Will probably be adding more AMazon for what that is worth.
When I started investing, they told me never to buy odd lots. Imagine buying a full lot of Amazon? Now it's the norm to buy a share here or there... I'll never do fractionals.
up goes the dow wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
that has been exactly my strategy. Add Amazon and Google to that list. Will probably be adding more AMazon for what that is worth.
When I started investing, they told me never to buy odd lots. Imagine buying a full lot of Amazon? Now it's the norm to buy a share here or there... I'll never do fractionals.
I don't see the harm in buying odd lots when NAV exceeds $100 or so.
up goes the dow wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
that has been exactly my strategy. Add Amazon and Google to that list. Will probably be adding more AMazon for what that is worth.
When I started investing, they told me never to buy odd lots. Imagine buying a full lot of Amazon? Now it's the norm to buy a share here or there... I'll never do fractionals.
Sorry, not directed to you specifically. The whole fractional share thing is dumb.
Nice short covering rally we're having today. It could be a two day thing. I'm also adding some AMZN. It's win win here.