Down goes the Dow

J. Hardy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I don’t know how many times I wrote about the dangers of buyback, discounted by most here. Now it is coming home to roost in a big way:

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader

Buybacks helped make a lot of money for a lot of us. Danger is in the eye of the beholder.

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the idiot wrote:

Igy, I’m reading a new book called Uncharted by Margaret Heffernan. There’s a brilliant description I think you will like:

“Master of the genre, kind of a b** grandchild of Babson, Fisher and Persons, is Jim Cramer, host of the US investment show Mad Money, in which he boomerangs around his TV studio to the dramatic cacophony of bullhorns, cash registers and bowling pins as he celebrates or mourns flourishing or decaying businesses. Predictions are the candy of his sweetshop and viewers eagerly swallow his advice, with prices on his picks visibly rising as the show airs.”

Brilliant stuff, and she goes on to explain that statistical testing of his calls suggests a follower is likely to lose significant money in a few months.

idiot,

Cramer was raked over by John Daily (I recall) during the Financial Crisis. Around the same time there was “money and darts vs Cramer.” He was on air yesterday and looked shell shocked.

Good chance we will break 2,000 shortly.

Be safe.

Igy

John Stewart....interesting I couldn’t open the videos.....

Potential shorts.....

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/cramers-lightning-round-i-like-square-very-much.html

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

J. Hardy wrote:

Buybacks helped make a lot of money for a lot of us. Danger is in the eye of the beholder.

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J. Hardy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

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Yea I bet you’ve been puking dollars....more on the way....

asia is up ex Oz but the US seems to be limit down again.

JFC it's been around a month since back to back gains.

feels like a serial pump and dump by our friends the algos.

Here's hoping asia stays green.

Most fear ever, by this measure

And we are only down 25%. What happens when we are down 50?

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1240119239287201793?s=21

Euro markets down 5%

Giles Corey wrote:Euro markets down 5%

I'm guessing that US markets will tank again today, potentially with another record or near-record drop. That, or they will turn around and do the opposite. I give the latter 2% chance of occurring, and the former 98%. I've placed a couple of orders in US equity ETFs at near 20% discount off yesterday, close to the final circuit breaker level. I will not buy for (much) more than that, so I expect to stand pat today, with mostly cash. I've also placed a couple of orders to sell at +10% in the unlikely event that happens.

My investment accounts are down 13.5% on the year, or about 16.7% off their early February peak; net worth down 6.6% (assuming RE holdings to maintain steady value, which could be an iffy assumption). So it's not like I'm making money or beating the market by a huge margin.

the idiot wrote:My investment accounts are down 13.5% on the year, or about 16.7% off their early February peak;...

Picture me or somebody like me, in their best Dr. Evil voice, "I've lost one HUNDRED dollars, ooh hahaha!"

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

The most valued, most complacent market ever got hit w/ a sledgehammer.

And now we're watching the nastiest unwind of all time unfold.

Dangerous markets w/ unprecedented volatility.

The system is staring at failure here hence ever more steep efforts to keep it from falling apart.

4:59 AM · Mar 18, 2020·Twitter Web App

the idiot wrote:

the idiot wrote:My investment accounts are down 13.5% on the year, or about 16.7% off their early February peak;...

Picture me or somebody like me, in their best Dr. Evil voice, "I've lost one HUNDRED dollars, ooh hahaha!"

Lol. Did you hit reversal Tuesday? That’s a pretty solid bet.

the idiot wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:Euro markets down 5%

My investment accounts are down 13.5% on the year, or about 16.7% off their early February peak; net worth down 6.6% (assuming RE holdings to maintain steady value, which could be an iffy assumption). So it's not like I'm making money or beating the market by a huge margin.

S+P down well over 20% from 1/1/20 -- 3,230 to 2,520 -- so if your equity accounts are down 13.5% you have done well. Unless you mean all your liquid accounts...in which case only 1/2 your net worth is in such accounts. The rest in RE

They will all get their bailouts. Of course.

And yes it will encourage stocks to rise.

Another wealth transfer from the small to the large bargaining unit, in every possible way.

Maserati wrote:Lol. Did you hit reversal Tuesday? That’s a pretty solid bet.

I've been pretty lucky, catching several days sales close to the days' peaks (yesterday right at the peak) and buys close to the days' troughs (although Monday about 2% above the bottom, which was disheartening). I realize I'm playing a bit of a dangerous game, but we are seeing full year changes occur on a near daily basis, and my presumption is that we will see regular swings up and down (with most likely an overall trend steeply down), and that, with luck, there is money to be made (or more correctly a potential to reduce losses). My luck, which has been good so far, will of course run out, so I'm getting more and more wary, making smaller and smaller bets as we get deeper into this situation.

I'm by now convinced the markets are in free fall, and Igy may win the bet he pretends we didn't make. :-)

You obviously forgot what happened eleven years ago.

Good luck though.

idiot, always been good with the bet....